Dow - Is wave (xiii) about to finish ?

Dow closed Monday trading with a marginal gain of 13 points. It formed another 'doji', sub-wave iv is about to start. The main concern now is - Dow is about to end its wave (xiii).

Based on the magnitude of its wave (ix) of 12% gain and its wave (xi) of 11.4% gain, and assuming wave (xiii) can gain an average of 11.7%, Dow has only another 2.3% to go, or another 370 points to go to complete its wave (xiii).

If wave (xiii) is going to be the end of its major wave (5) or mega wave 1. I think Dow is approaching a possible danger zone. In my previous posts I thought the wave (xiii) could last until early 2015 but it appeared that it may not.

Unless major wave (5) has more than 13 waves, then the next correction can be wave (xiv) after the completion of wave (xiii).

But if major wave (5) has only 13 waves then the next correction at best is the major wave (6) pullback and worst to come is the mega wave 2 scenario.

Be careful, be very very careful. And again this is only my interpretation of Dow and I can be wrong too.


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Weekly Update

Dow (17,634)

Dow closed the week at 17,634. It appeared to me that it has completed its mini wave 5. If sub-wave iii has only 5 waves, it is likely that Dow will form the sub-wave iv of its wave (xiii) next week.

Be very careful when wave (xiii) is completed because it could be the end of its major wave (5) or mega wave 1.

 

FBMKLCI (1,813)

KLCI continues to form its wave 2 of its wave d. Does it need to wait for Dow to complete its sub-wave iv before it can start its wave 3 of d ?

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.48)

BJ Corp is about to complete its mini wave 2. The worst that can happen is a 100% retracement to 47 sens.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 4.50)

Same as BJ Corp, KSL is on its way to complete its mini wave 2.

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A Historic Link

Come next Monday, 17th November 2014, for the first time, Chinese retail investors from Mainland China can buy foreign shares directly when the long-awaited trading link between Hong Kong and Shanghai starts to operate.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing chief executive 

Charles Li (left) and chairman Chow Chung-Kong

This 'Link' will provide a channel for Chinese individual investors to start moving some of their 50 trillions Chinese Renminbi of private wealth into oversea stocks. It also allows foreigners to buy more China stocks.

Click 'Hong Kong - Shanghai Trading Link' for details.

This is going to have a great impact on equity and currency markets.


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Dow - wave (xiii)

Dow (17,612)

Dow closed its Wednesday session at 17,612. For two days Dow ended on a mixed note forming 2 'doji' candlesticks. If Dow is not forming its minor wave vi then it is forming its mini wave 4 of sub-wave i of its wave (xiii).

Dow is at the tail end of its sub-wave i, it may take another week to finish it. The upper channel line may provide solid support to sub-wave ii. Sub-wave iii of wave (xiii) will set more new record highs in December.

FBMKLCI (1,816)

KLCI dropped another 8 points to continue with its wave c of 2. It may take another two to three days to complete its wave 2.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 4.54)

KSL moved to a high of Rm 4.67 before sellers pushed it down to close at Rm 4.54. If it can continue to climb higher with good volume, it may be able to run until end of November to form its mini-wave (iii) of sub-wave v.

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Berjaya Corporation Bhd

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.485)

BJ Corp formed its first green candlestick after a week of correction. Is that the signal that mini wave 2 has ended ?

BJ Corp has been in the down trend since April 2010 forming the wave C of its mega wave (2). It may be too early to say that its mega wave (2) has ended, more confirmation is needed, but the bullish 5 little waves formation is a positive sign.

Bonescythe has a long writeup on this stock in September. Click 'BJ Corp - The Rise of The Empire' for the article.

If my reading is right and if the 47-sen level is indeed the base, it is possible that the mega wave (3) of BJ Corp has started. I am keeping my fingers crossed.


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Weekend update.

Dow (17,573)

Dow closed the week with another new record high. From the candlesticks it is quite obvious that the run is losing momentum. Mini wave 3 may end anytime. Mini wave 4 may take one or two days to completed. Mini wave 5 of sub-wave i can be quite unpredictable.

The upper trend-line is likely to provide a strong support for the sub-wave ii correction.

FBMKLCI (1,824)

KLCI continues to form the wave 2 of its wave d. It appeared to me that the magnitude of wave 2 is about there. Hopefully wave 3 of d can start next week.

I expect wave d to run until first quarter of 2015.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 4.56)

KSL continues to form the mini wave (ii) of its wave (v). I hope I can see the starting of mini wave (iii) next week. Wave (v) is likely to be completed by end of November or early December after the announcement of its 3rd Quarter earning and the approval of the one for one bonus issue plus the proposed Dividend Reinvestment Plan.

From a longer term perspective, if wave (v) is the end of major wave 3, it will be followed by major wave 4 correction before the final major wave 5 surge to complete its mega wave (3). The major wave 4 correction, if inline with KLCI's wave e correction, it may last about 3 to 4 months.

Based on my projection, mega wave (3) may reach Rm 8.00 ( or Rm 4.00 after adjusting for the 1 for 1 bonus)  before end of 2015 provided the Dow can hold. 

Please remember, I can be wrong. 


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Dow - Two consecutive new highs

Dow (17,554)

Dow added another 69 points (+0.4%) to close Thursday session at 17,554 for another record high two days in a row. Dow has reached its short term upper trend-line. It may take a pause to form its sub-wave ii before breaking the short-term upper resistance.

It is also possible that it may choose to continue its current run for a break through before taking a rest.

FBMKLCI (1,831)

KLCI is currently forming the mini wave 2 of its wave d of major wave 4.

It is likely to complete its wave d with a new record by early 2015. Hopefully it can last until 19th February, 2015 for a happy and prosperous Chinese New Years.

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.48)

If BJ Corp has ended its down-trend that started in April 2010 and is on its new bull cycle now, the possible low for the current minor wave ii is 47 sens for a 100% retracement.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 4.57)

KSL is forming the minor wave ii of its sub-wave v at this moment.

However if it chooses to drop further, then this will be a higher degree mini-wave (ii) correction.

But nothing to worry lah if the company is going to announce another 20 sens of earning per share for its 3rd Quarter and the EGM is going to approve the 1 for 1 bonus issue and the Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP) by 28th November. Logically the next run-up has to go beyond Rm 5.00.

It is also good to remember - ' The time to worry is when everybody is not worry'


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