Dow - Better to be cautious.

Dow added 215 points (+1.3%) on Tuesday but gave back 153 points (0.9%) on Wednesday. The 3 days rebound can either be the sub-wave ii of wave (i) of its major wave (6).

Or it can be the mini wave 1 of sub-wave i of its wave (xiii).

At this moment I would prefer to assume the more bearish scenario of option 1- which means Dow is currently forming the sub-wave ii rebound. It is better to take a safer stand as the next wave, the sub-wave iii, can be very damaging.


.

KSL, PM Corp and Priceworth - Revised Wave Count

KSL Holding Bhd (Rm 4.10)

The next up-leg for KSL is likely to be its wave (v) of 3. Hopefully that can bring it to above Rm 5.00 by end of November. The main question is whether it has completed its wave (iv).

Pan Malaysia Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.225)

The current down is likely to be PM Corp's wave c of major wave 4. Hopefully the next major wave 5 can bring it to above Rm 0.50.

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.195)

The wave count for PWorth remained the same as before. It is at the tail end of its wave (ii). To me this is a possible goldmine if the current bull run since 2009 can be continued until 2017.

.

Dow - Where are we now

Dow (16,380)

Dow added 263 points (+1.63%) on Friday. Magnitude wise, it looks like a normal rebound after many days of drop. The two possible wave counts I mentioned early still hold.

Option 1- Dow ended its wave (ix) with an 'Ending diagonal triangles' to complete its Major wave (5) or mega wave 1 has ended.

Friday's rebound is just a technical rebound, its mini wave 4, can not last. Dow will continue with its mini wave 5 next week.

Option 2 - Major wave (5) or mega wave 1 are not yet ended. Dow has just completed its wave (xii). The next up will be its wave (xiii) to complete its major wave (5) or mega wave 1.

 

Under this scenario, Dow will continue its Friday's surge to move higher next week. Hopefully Dow's next week movement can tell us which option can be eliminated.

 

FBMKLCI (1,788)

Option 1 - FBMKLCI has to move in tandem with Dow generally. Inline with Dow's Option 1, last Friday rebound is the mini wave iv rebound. It will continue to move lower next week together with Dow to form its mini wave v.

 

Option 2 - Similar to the Option 2 of Dow, FBMKLCI has ended the wave c of its major wave 4 and will move higher in tandem with Dow to form its wave d of 4.

.

FBMKLCI - My two options remained the same

FBMKLCI (1767)

FBMKLCI dropped another 19 points to 1767 but the two possible options I mentioned previously still hold.

KLCI is either going for a-b-c major wave 4 with more pullback for c.

OR it is going for a-b-c-d-e major wave 4 where c can end any time.

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.47)

BJ Corp dropped below the 49 sens level and my (i)-(ii), i-ii wave count no longer hold. The revised wave count is as shown below. The forming of major wave C since 2011 has not yet ended but may end any time.

The owner of BJ Corp has been buying this stock around its current level.

KSL Holding Bhd (Rm 3.77)

KSL is forming its wave (iv) currently.

It is very likely that it is forming only the wave a of wave (iv). Next up is likely to be its wave b of (iv).

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.18)

My wave count for PWorth remained the same. It is forming its wave (ii) with a possible low of 16 sens for a 100% retracement.

.

Dow - My two possibilities still hold

Dow plunged to an intra-day low of 15,855 (-2.8%) before rebounded strongly to close at 16,141 (-1.06%) on Wednesday.

With this strong afternoon rebound my two possible options mentioned previously still hold.

If Dow can move up from there, then the intra-day plunge could be the end of wave (xii), a climax sell-off. Dow can have its wave (xiii)'s run until early next year.

However, if the next run-up is a failure run, then Dow is more likely to form its major wave (6).

Major wave (6) is likely to end around 14,750 level.

 

There is still a last possibility that Dow has started its mega wave 2 correction but at this moment I rate it as of lower possibility. I hope I am right. Keep my fingers crossed.

.

FBMKLCI to move in tandem with Dow

Dow added 125 points to 16,446 after 2 hours and 30 minutes of trading on Tuesday.

In the last 3 days Dow dropped 673 points or about 4% to 16,321 level, merely 21 points above my final support level of 16,300 level for the wave (xii) option.

Is the Monday closing level of 16,321 marked the completion of wave (xii) for Dow?  If so, Dow will start to run up from here in the next few months to complete its wave (xiii) and possibly its major wave (5).

Under this scenario, for FBMKLCI to move in tandem with Dow and to move higher from its current level. Then it is likely that the major wave 4 will take the form of a 3-wave up and down a-b-c-d-e pattern.

So far FBMKLCI has completed 3 waves for wave c and can move up from here to form the wave d.

However, if today's rebound for Dow is only a technical rebound and after this rebound Dow proceeds to move lower than the 16,300 level. Then as I have mentioned earlier, Dow has completed its diagonal triangles wave (ix) as well as its major wave (5) and Dow is forming its major wave (6) currently.

 

Major wave (6) is likely to end at around 14,700 level for a 15% correction. 

To be in tandem with Dow, FBMKLCI is likely to drop either to 1,686 level to form its 5-wave wave c of major wave 4 for a 11% correction, or to 16,000 level for a 15% correction

.

FBMKLCI - It is major wave 4 correction.

FBMKLCI (1,797)


FBMKLCI dropped 11 points today to close at 1,797 level. It has punched through the final lower support line as well as the 1,800 level. The current down is the sub-wave iii of wave C of the major wave 4. I expect it to move above the 1,800 to complete its sub-wave iv.

Major wave 4 has a possible low of 1,686, which is the end of wave (iv) of its major wave 3.

After the completion of its major wave 4, KLCI still has one more up-trend, the major wave 5 and be very careful, that could be the end of the mega wave (5), unless mega wave (5) has more than 5 waves. Even a mega wave (6) correction can be very damaging, just look at the mega wave (4) correction during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.495)

If BJCorp drops below 49 sens, I will have to revise my wave count of (i)-(ii), i-ii.

Dutaland Bhd (Rm 0.65)

Wave (iv) continues. It is also possible that the current down is only the wave a of (iv).

Pan Malaysia Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.24)

I still think that the current correction is the wave (ii) of its major wave 5. The last support is  22 sens. It is cheap even at 24 sens as it has a cash per share of 19 sens with zero borrowing.

 

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.195)

It is forming its wave (ii) with a possible low of 16 sens for a 100% retracement. This stock can be a  goldmine by 2017 when its log production reaches 100,000 cu.m a month and its wood based mills can operate at 70% or more of its capacity.

My assumption

At this moment I am assuming the Dow, at its worst, is undergoing its major wave (6) correction, a 15% pullback. The assets bubble is not yet burst.

Mega wave 2 correction is possible but unlikely at this moment. BUT, I can be wrong.
I hope I am not wrong.

Yeoh's Bah Kut Teh

One of the best Bah Kut Teh from Klang. Yummy, yummy, I love it.

.