Dow - Major Correction ?

Dow (16,554)

Dow dropped another 115 points to 16,554 on Friday, another step closer to the 16,300 level to end the wave (xii). This wave count is only possible if the running a-b-c for sub-wave iv is agreeable and acceptable.

However, with a possible 'Ending Diagonal Triangles' 3-3-3-3-3 wave count for wave (ix), and triangles as a general rule 'occur only in positions prior to the final movement in the direction of a larger trend', chances are high that a major correction for Dow has started.

If this pullback is a major wave (6) correction, Dow is likely to end at 14,700 level for a 15% correction. Since 14,776 level is the starting point of the diagonal triangles, theoretically it is also a possible level where the major wave (6) is likely to end.

And if mega wave 1 has only 5 major waves, it is also possible that mega wave 1 has ended. Then the current pullback is the starting of the mega wave 2. This mega wave 2 can either end at 10,655 level, the end of major wave (4), for a 38% correction or it can end at 6,547 level, the starting point of mega wave 1, for a 100% retracement or 60% correction from its peak.

FBMKLCI (1,808)

FBMKLCI has punched through my projected support level of 1,825 level.

However, by drawing a parallel line to sub-wave i and ii, the 1,808 level remained within the up-trend channel. So, it is still acceptable but KLCI must move up from here to form its sub-wave v of wave (v) of major wave 3.

If KLCI instead of moving higher from its current level, it starts to fall again and goes below the 1,800 level in the coming week, then I have no choice but to accept the possibility that the major wave 3 has ended and KLCI is currently forming the wave c of its major wave 4.

Major wave 4 can drop to 1,670 level, another 138 points or about another 8% to go. From its peak of 1,892 the drop to 1,670 is about 12%, this will tie in nicely with the Dow's major wave (6) correction of about 15%. Based on KLCI, can I say that the mega wave 1 of Dow has more than 5 major waves and Dow is more likely to go for a 15% major wave (6) correction with 14,700 or 14,776 as possible ending points ?


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Dow - The End or Not The End ?

Very volatile, dropped 272 points on Tuesday, surged 275 points on Wednesday and plunged 334 points (-1.97%) on Thursday, very rare too. However, I am still thinking of wave (xii) and around 16,300 level, or at worst 16,200 level, that is another 350 - 400 points to go.

But, what if it goes below 16,300 level or 16,200 level ?

Then my revised wave count is as shown below. I should not have forced into wave (xi) a running a-b-c sub-wave iv.

I am sorry, it is a diagonal wave,  major wave (5) or worst mega wave 1 has ended.

Whatever form it takes, Elliott is always right.
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Bursa Malaysia - Is sub-wave iv correction about to end ?

FBMKLCI (1,824)

FBMKLCI dropped another 9 points today to close at 1,824 which is about where I expect the sub-wave iv to end.

With the drops in the last two days, the mini-wave 5 is there. Hopefully the sub-wave iv correction has either ended or about to end.

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.515)

As long as the current drop does not go below the 49 sens level, my wave count for BJ Corp remains as (i)-(ii), i-ii.

Malayan United Industries Bhd (Rm 0.255)

With the drops in the last two days, my (i)-(ii), i-ii wave count for Mui no longer hold.

I have to take one of the sub-wave of major wave 2 as wave (i)-(ii). With this modification, the last high becomes the wave (v) of major wave 3. The current drop is likely to be the wave a of major wave 4.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 4.06)

At Rm 4.06, KSL wave count needs to be modified as my previous wave count no longer hold. From its 10-year chart, it is clear that the current correction is of a higher degree and it can either be its wave (iv) correction.

Or it can be its lower degree sub-wave iv correction. But whether it is wave (iv) or sub-wave iv correction, I believe some investors may take this opportunity to accumulate this stock. Kenanga has estimated its 2014 and 2015 net profits to be Rm 301 million and Rm 376 million respectively. Net earning per share will be 76 sens and 96 sens for 2014 and 2015 respectively. Kenanga put a fair value of Rm 6.63 for KSL. Its warrant with conversion price at Rm 1.60 should have a fair value of Rm 5.00, it closed at Rm 2.60 today.

KSL has proposed a one for one bonus issue last week.

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Dow - It is wave (xii)

Dow dropped 272 points (-1.6%) on Tuesday to end the day at 16,719 level, which is 82 points lower than its last week low of 16,801. This drop confirmed the forming of mini-wave 3 of wave c of wave (xii).

Wave (xii) may end somewhere near 16,300 level before starting its wave (xiii).

End of wave (xiii) can provide a possible ending point for major wave (5) or mega wave 1 as mentioned in my earlier posts.

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Dow - Strong rebound on Friday.

Dow (17,009)

Dow rebounded strongly on Friday. It added 208 points (+1.24%) to 17,009.

This 208 points rebound can either be the first candlestick for sub-wave vii of wave (xi).

OR it can be the mini-wave 2 of wave C of wave (xii) as shown below. If this is the case, watch out for the mini-wave 3, it can be quite damaging.

 

KSL Holding Bhd (Rm 4.32)

I was expecting the the 1 for 1 bonus announcement on Thursday evening could jump-start the mini-wave 5 of its wave (iii).  I was disappointed, KSL instead of going up, it dropped 11 sens to close the week at Rm 4.32 and the mini-wave 4 continued. Have to be patient :(

  

The waves of Clark Little

 

 

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FBMKLCI - Where are we ?

FBMKLCI (1,837)

Since September 2011's low (1,331), FBMKLCI has been forming the major wave 3 of its mega wave (5).

Currently it is at the tail end of major wave 3, at end of wave c of sub-wave iv of wave (v).

Mini-wave 5 of wave c is about to end anytime.

 

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.545)

Next up will be the sub-wave iii of wave (iii).

Dutaland Bhd (Rm 0.745)

Wave (i) has ended. Wave (ii) in progress.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 4.43)

Mini-wave 4 is about to end. At the end of the trading session the company announced a one for one bonus issue. Mini-wave 5 is sure to start tomorrow.

Malayan United  Industries Bhd (Rm 0.29)

Same as BJ Corp, next up is the sub-wave iii of wave (iii).

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.21)

Since the stock price has gone lower than 23 sens, the top of wave (i), I have to revise my wave count as shown below. The last high is the major wave 1, major wave 2 in progress.

Pan Malaysia Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.28)

Based on the record volume, I still think that PM Corp is at its wave (iii) currently. The next up will be the sub-wave iii of wave (iii).

However, if the stock price continues to go lower, the following wave count is the next possibility.

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Dow - Where are we ?

Option 1

Dow dropped 238 points (-1.4%) to close Wednesday trading session at 16,804. If Dow can start to move up from here, then this drop is the last mini wave 5 of c that I have been waiting for. This is the end of sub-wave vi and the next up will be the sub-wave vii of wave (xi).

Option 2

However, if Dow continues to move lower from this level, it may look unlikely to me at this moment but I still have to look for an explanation. The only way out is to accept the sub-wave iv of wave (xi) as a running a-b-c. Then wave (xi) has completed its 5 waves in July followed by wave A-B-C of wave (xii).

Then Dow at this moment is actually forming the wave C of its wave (xii). Dow is at the wave i of C of (xii)

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Wave (xii) is likely to end at the 16,200 level, then we will have the last up-leg, the wave (xiii), a possible final leg before a major wave 6 or mega wave 2 correction that I have mentioned previously takes place.

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