Saturday, February 22, 2014
Dow and FBMKLCI
Dow - No crash scenario
Dow is forming the wave c of major wave (6). Possible low at 15,000 level.
Dow - The assets bubble has burst
Dow is forming the sub-wave iii of wave (i) of major wave (1) of mega wave 2. The historical closing high of 16,576 on 31st December 2013 marked the end of the bull-run.
FBMKLCI - Moved in tandem with Dow (no crash)
Forming the major wave 4 with about 15% pullback to 1600 level.
FBMKLCI - The assets bubble has burst
The index will form a smaller major wave 4 with a failure major wave 5.
Watch out for the 'Head and Shoulders' reversal pattern
If the index started to move lower from its current level, watch out for the 'Head and Shoulders' reversal pattern. The neckline is at 1780 level.
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Wednesday, February 19, 2014
Will the stock market crash ?
A friend forwarded the following article to me.
Will the stock market crash? - Koon Yew Yin
Author: Koon Yew Yin | Publish date: Tue, 18 Feb 11:02
This is an extract of Joel Kurtzman’s interview :
Much has been written about the decline of the U.S. as a world leader
since the financial crisis. But despite relatively high unemployment and
a widening income gap between the rich and everyone else, growth is
accelerating, debt is declining and the banking sector is relatively
healthy.
Economist Joel Kurtzman, who is also a senior fellow at the Milken
Institute, says America is not in decline and actually on the verge of
resurgence.
The author of the new book Unleashing the Second
American Century: Four Forces for Economic Dominance, Kurtzman cites
"four transformational forces" that will lead that to resurgence:
tremendous creativity--"we produce more new ideas ... than any other
country" -- tremendous energy reserves, reserves of capital and a
re-shoring of manufacturing.
Myth #1: America is broke
America's private sector is in
better shape than it's been in years, and the American consumer is
healthier than she or he has been in the past 35 years, says Kurtzman.
"On the private side of the balance sheet America is doing just fine,"
says Kurtzman. The public side is another story, but it's improving. The
money America uses to pay its debt has been declining as a portion of
GDP every year, "and it's very manageable," says Kurtzman.
Myth #2: High unemployment rates are here to stay
Kurtzman says the high jobless rate is concentrated in people without a
college education and those under 25. The unemployment rate for someone
over 25 who's college educated has held steady at around 4%.
Myth #3: China is ascending while America is declining
"China is coming of age at probably the worst time in history for a
country that wants to be a manufacturing power," says Kurtzman. China's
strategy involves having 200 million people a decade working in
manufacturing, says Kurtzman. "They can't accommodate that," says
Kurtzman. The U.S., meanwhile, has moved from a manufacturing-centric
economy to a service-focused one--a transition that China will
eventually have to make, says Kurtzman. "That will be very difficult for
them."
Myth #4: America is a spent power
Kurtzman says the U.S.
is in a great position for growth because it remains the world's leading
military and manufacturing power, has trillions of dollars in capital
to deploy and is now less dependent on imported oil given the
development of its own energy reserves.
Myth #5: America doesn't make anything anymore
This is
simply not true, says Kurtzman. America is the dominant manufacturing
power in the world if you include what we make overseas. But if you just
look at just what we make in America, we make 20% of everything
produced. That's about the same as China but China makes low value-added
products such as towels and clothing. We make airplanes, radar,
turbines -- the big expensive stuff.
Conclusion: As you know
the KLCI has recently broke the all time high record and like most
investors, I too have the fear that the market might crash soon. After
you have read the above extract, you must come to the conclusion that
the US stock market will not crash so soon and our stock market will
also not crash so soon.
I hope I have given you more confidence to invest and play the game.
Get this book if you wanted to learn more from Joel Kurtzman, a Senior Fellow at the Milken Institute, a non-profit non-partisan think tank.
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Sunday, February 16, 2014
Weekend Update - Dow, PJ Dev. Latitude Tree and MK Land
My two likely options for Dow remained the same.
For major wave (6) formation, wave b is about there. For zig-zag a-b-c formation, wave b cannot go too high.
But for sub-wave ii of the pessimistic mega-wave 2 formation, the current rebound can go for a 100% retracement to Dow's historical high of 16,576 level to form a double-top reversal pattern. Watch out for the double-top.
PJ Development (Rm 1.49)
Refer to my article on 16th November, 2013, after the 2 sens breakout above the 1.20 level on 15th November, the stock moved higher and then it dropped back to retest the 1.20 level before moving higher to complete its sub-wave iii.
On Friday, it gained another 6 sens with high volume to close above sub-wave iii. If the magnitude of sub-wave v is the same as that of sub-wave iii, sub-wave v and possibly wave (v) can end at 1.65 level.
PJ Development Warrant C closed at 65.5 sens on Friday, doubled its price of 33 sens in November. If the mother share were to add on another 25 sens, Warrant C might reach 90 sens. The fifth wave sometimes is quite unpredictable.
Latitude Tree (Rm2.66).
This is another stock that pulled away from its previous high with high volume.
It has to be the starting of mini-wave 3. Its wave (i) added 100%, and its wave (iii) added 150%. Can its wave (v) add on another 100%?
MK Land (Rm 0.435)
Another stock that has a break-out on Friday is MK Land.
That is the sub-wave iii of wave (i) of its major wave 2.
Perception (Rm2.00)
Nancy Shukri, "Recently when I had tea in Kuching, there were 6 of us and it was only Rm12, is that expensive ?"
Well, 6 cups of tea at a Kopitiam (cannot be Starbucks or equivalent right?) for RM12, if you said it is not expensive, then it is not expensive loh. But for me that used to pay Rm1.50 for a cup of barley ice, at Rm2 that is another 33% increase in price. And if Nancy said that is 'sub sub sui', then it is 'sub sub sui' loh.
I have been shopping around, comparing prices, looking for value buy since I started working in 1975 and now ministers are teaching me how to compare prices and look for value buy. Sigh!
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Wednesday, February 12, 2014
Dow - Next is wave c ? or sub-wave iii ?
In its January down-trend movement, Dow has completed 5 mini-waves, the low at around 15,400 level can either be the wave a of its major wave (6)
Or the low is the sub-wave i of wave (i) of major wave (1) of its mega wave 2.
The current rebound, whether it is the wave b of major wave (6) or it is the sub-wave ii of wave (i), the magnitude is about there.
The next down-trend can either be the wave c of major wave (6) or it is the sub-wave iii of wave (i). If Dow moves down with steep gradient with high volume, than it is likely to be the sub-wave iii. However, if it moves lower at a slower pace with lower volume, then it is more likely to be the wave c of its major wave (6).
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Monday, February 10, 2014
Dow - Can forget about wave (x)
With last Friday's strong rebound, the magnitude is too big to be considered as mini-wave 6, we can forget about the wave (x) scenario.
We are left with 2 possibilities, a more optimistic major wave (6) formation with a 10% correction as shown below, to 14,750 level.
Or the pessimistic mega wave 2 formation as shown below.
With this pessimistic option, The worst that can happen is for the mega wave 2 to go all the way to 6,547 level for a 100% retracement within the next 24 months.
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Wednesday, February 5, 2014
Dow - The same 3 possibilities.
Optimistic Scenario
The correction is about to finish. Dow is about to complete its wave (x) at around 15,400 level. The next up will be its wave (xi).
A Higher Degree Correction
Mega wave 1 has more than 5 major wave. Dow has completed the wave a of its major wave (6). Next up is the wave b. Wave c will go to around 14,750 level.
Worst Scenario - The bubble has burst
Dow has completed its mega wave 1 and is currently forming its mega wave 2.
The worst that can happen is a 100% retracement. Mega wave 2 will go all the way to the starting point of mega wave 1, the 6,547 level, to form a double bottom reversal pattern.
Less damaging is a 35% pullback to 10,655 level.
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Sunday, February 2, 2014
Dow - Correction not over yet
Dow closed the week at 15,698 level. It dropped 878 points or 5.3% for the first month of 2014. The 3 possibilities for Dow that I have mentioned previously remained the same.
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