Merry Christmas

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Latitude Tree, FACB Ind, Land & General and PM Corp.

Latitide Tree Holdings Bhd (Rm2.35)


I mentioned 2 stocks on 28th November, Latitude Tree and FACB Ind. At that time both the stocks have just announced their respective quarterly (July to Sept) earning.

For Latitude Tree, earning per share (EPS) is 15.02 sen, net assets per share is Rm 2.57. Since then Latitude Tree has continued with its major wave 3 and moved from Rm 1.48 to Rm 2.35, up 58%.

It is currently forming the wave ix of its major wave 3.

FACB Ind Incorporated (Rm 1.25)

FACB on the other hand has hardly moved at all. In fact it dropped 3 sen from Rm 1.28 to Rm 1.25.

FACB reported EPS of 76.64 sen and net assets per share of Rm 2.61. The high earning was due to its disposal of properties. Without this exceptional item, its profit due to its normal operation was about 2.3 sen a share. After its properties sale, its net cash per share is Rm 1.77

FACB is currently forming its  a-b-c wave 4. That explained why its stock price has been moving side-way to lower.

Land & General Bhd (43.5 sen)

I have modified my wave count as shown below. Its latest quarterly EPS is 3.86 sens and net assets per share is 75 sens. Its cash per share is 42 sens.

Land & General is forming its sub-wave ii at this moment. Its next wave up is the sub-wave iii of major wave 3 of mega wave (3). It is the iii of 3 of (3).

Pan Malaysia Corporation Bhd (22.5 sen)

Its last quarter earning is 3.22 sen a share. Net assets is 48 sen, out of which 20 sen is cash.
The current pull-back can be its wave 6 correction. So watch out for the wave 7, it can be very dynamic with high volume. Just wonder whether its price will go below 20 sen.

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Dow - Next week can be crucial.

Dow closed the week with another new record at 16,221. I am looking forwards to Dow moving above 16,400 level next week, to confirm the mini-wave 3 run-up and hopefully Dow can last another 9 to 10 months..

And if this is going to be the last surge before the bubble burst, an euphoric parabolic run-up may take place to bring Dow to above 20,000 level.

However, if Dow failed to break its upper resistance line to go above 16,400 next week, Dow may complete its wave (ix) with a wedge formation as shown below. It's quite likely that Dow may go to 14,000 level to form its major wave (6).

My focus next week will be on whether Dow can break its upper resistance line.

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Dow Jumped on Federal Reserve Tapering Announcement

Dow jumped 292 points (+1.84%) on Wednesday to set another new record at 16,168 level after Federal Reserve announced to reduce its US$85 billion monthly bond purchase by US$10 billion starting January 2014.

With this surge, last Thursday low of 15,739 is very likely to be the mini-wave 2 of the sub-wave iii.

Dow will set more new highs on its way to complete its mini-wave 3 of sub-wave iii. 3 of iii, it has to be dynamic. With this wave count, Dow is likely to complete its wave (ix) during third quarter of 2014.

Another possible wave count is rather pessimistic, sub-wave iii and iv of wave (ix) were completed as shown below, a wedge formation. Wave (ix) can be completed within the next two weeks.

I personally feel that this option is unlikely. It is more likely that Dow will break its upper resistance line to complete its mini-wave 3 of sub-wave iii.


Land & General Bhd (46 sen)


L&G closed strongly today at 46 sens. Is this the starting of sub-wave v of wave (iii) ? With a quarterly earning of 3.86 sen per share and having cash at 42 sen per share, L&G at 46 sen is dirt cheap.

 

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Dow - Has sub-wave iii ended ?

I am a firm believer that when Dow plunges, the whole world stock indices will follow. At this moment I cannot rule out the possibility that the completion of wave (ix) of major wave (5) might be the end of the bull run for Dow that started in March 2009 from 6,547 level.   

So far Dow has completed its sub-wave i and ii of its wave (ix).

Has sub-wave iii ended ?


Possibility 1 - Not yet

Dow is currently forming the mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii as shown below. Wave (ix) may be able to last until 3rd quarter of 2014.

Possibility 2 - sub-wave iii has been completed

Dow is in the process of forming its sub-wave iv. If sub-wave iv is taking the form of a-b-c-d-e as shown below, Dow is likely to complete its sub-wave iv within 2 weeks by end of this month, latest by early January 2014. Dow may take another month, say by early February 2014 to complete sub-wave v and wave (ix). If wave (ix) has only 5 sub-waves, sub-wave i to v.

Sub-wave iv can also take the form of a 3 waves a, another 3 waves b and 5 waves c.

Under this alternative 2, Dow may be able to drag on a little bit longer until March 2014 to complete the crucial wave (ix) and possibly major wave (5) and also mega wave 1. Then mega wave 2 will begin.

However if Dow still can live on after this crucial wave (ix) turning point because of excessive liquidity, the next higher degree pullback is the major wave (6) as shown below.

Then Dow will have a long journey to go until 2015 to form its major wave (6)-(7)-(8)-(9).

I read from TheEdge that icapital.biz Bhd, a listed closed-end fund of Tan Teng Boo, had over Rm209 million cash as at 31st August, 2013, compared with the value of its investment, which stood at Rm199.6 million. In notes accompanying icapital.biz's quarterly result ended 30th August, it cites Buffett's virtues of patience, saying, "We don't get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we will wait, we'll wait indefinitely." I guess Tan is waiting for the collapse before doing anything.



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Land & General Bhd

Land & General (L&G) moved higher everyday in the last 4 trading sessions from 41 sens to 47.5 sens with high volume.

My wave count for L&G is as shown below.

L&G is currently forming its sub-wave iii of wave (i) of major wave 3.

L&G earned 3.86 sen a share for its latest quarter ending 30th September. It has Rm 293 million cash in hand with bank borrowing at Rm 26 million. Assuming full conversion of its 77 million ICULS, the number of share is 636 million. Cash per share is about 42 sen. With quarterly earning at 3.86 sen and cash per share of 42 sen, L&G looks cheap at 47.5 sen.


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DBKL Proposed Hike in Property Assessment

On DBKL proposed hike in property assessment, Tong Kooi Ong, the executive chairman of The Edge Media Group has these to say :

"A rise in property prices should not be the justification for an increase in assessment. Rather, any increase in assessment rates should be tied to an increase in DBKL's operating costs".

"DBKL's development expenditure should be funded by the federal development budget of the country".

"Instead of asking for more money, it should be looking at ways to improve efficiency and reduce costs and wastage".

By comparing DBKL's proposed budget with that of Selangor with respect to population, area and number of household, he illustrates how inefficient DBKL is.

Click 'DBKL and Selangor : A tale of two contrasting budgets' for his full article.

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