Bursa Malaysia - Dutaland

I started to watch Dutaland's movement closely since mid-July when its volume started to pickup accompanied by a breakout in its OBV.

It is possible that June's low is the end of its long consolidation since mid 2009. With that conclusion, I have started to accumulate Dutaland since mid-July, purely based on technical reading. 

Assuming March 2009's low is the bottom, a possible wave count for Dutaland is as shown.

Assuming the wave count is correct, Dutaland is currently forming its major wave 3. It has to break the upper trend line at around 65 sen.



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Dow failed to break

Dow failed to break its upper resistance on Monday. Volume remained low. It is possible that Dow is taking a breather before its next move. A iii of 3 breakout should be a convincing breakout with high volume.



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Dow - Latest Scenario

On Friday, Dow managed to recoup all its previous three days of losses to close at 13,096 level.

However, it was not able to break its upper trend line. If Dow follows the above wave count, it should be able to break out of the uptrend channel as well as its May's high of 13,279.

Short-term bullish, another 7% gain at best.

Following this possible wave count, 14,000 is a likely location to end the major wave 1. For major wave 2, the worst case scenario is a 100% retracement to the 6,547 level. This can be triggered by events in Europe coupled with recession in China.

Long-term bearish, a possible 53% loss.

To tie in with the latest wave count, the long-term wave count since 1900 possibly takes the form shown above. After the March 2000 dot-com bubble's peak when mega wave V ended, Dow has formed an expanding triangle a-b-c corrective mega wave VI, that ended on March 2009 at 6,547 level.

The following is an interesting video

"Do we really need to audit the Federal Reserve?"



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Gold - Update 6

Gold price remains in major wave 4 correction.

The current rebound will complete wave b before the next drop to complete the major wave 4. Major wave 5 for Gold may reach US$3,000.00/oz.



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A new option

Dow gained 458 points or 3.6% in three days to close at 13075 on Friday. It was able to break its previous high of 12943 and at the same time it closed higher than its upper trend line.

A new possible option for Dow is as shown below, wave v has yet to be completed.

it is possible that Dow is currently forming the sub-wave (v) of wave v at this moment.

For Dow at its current level, Option 1 and Option 2 that I have mentioned previously still cannot be ruled out especially if Dow started to move lower to below the upper trend line again next week.

 

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All-out support for Dow

Dow rebounded strongly on Thursday, it gained 211 points (+1.67%) to close at 12887.
As long as it cannot break the 12943 level, which is only 56 points away, Option 1 and 2 remain valid.

However if Dow can move higher than 12943 and proceed to break the upper trend line as shown below, it is likely that wave v is being extended into 5 waves, 1/v-2/v-3/v-4/v and 5/v.

Still a long way to go before Dow goes south under this scenario.


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Hehehehehe

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