Just wait and see

It really caught me by surprise that the wave 2 of major wave C can drag for so long.

Mini wave (iii) simply refused to end, it has formed 9 minute waves so far. After the completion of mini wave (iii), mini wave (iv) and (v) can easily take another 2 to 3 weeks.

I am looking for a 100% retracement for wave 2 as shown below.



However if it can close above 12,810 and continue to pull away I will have to abandon the above wave count and see where is my mistake.

Bursa Malaysia

Plantation stocks were very strong in the last three trading days on expectation of good 4th quarter (Oct 2011 - Dec 2011) earning due to be announced in February 2012. Current CPO price is about Rm3100/mt.

In the 2008 bear market for stocks, CPO price dropped from Rm 3650 to Rm1550. Similar to the stock indices, it rebounded in 3 waves to Rm3800 by February 2011. Since then it has dropped in 5 mini waves to Rm2870 by October 2011 before rebounded to the current price of around Rm3100. It may move to Rm 3200+ by next month, however if Dow started its wave 3 of major wave C, I expect the CPO price to move down together with the stock markets.

Similar to Dow, CPO price is currently forming its wave 2 of major wave C.



As I have mentioned earlier, if Dow can stay above 12,810 and move higher, I expect the CPO price to move higher in tandem with the Dow as shown below. One may ask why the corrective wave 4 has 5 sub-waves?

Happy Chinese New Year

Courtesy of www.chinahighlights.com

CLSA Feng Sui Chart for 2012 stock market.

Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a daily average of prices to ship raw material, has dropped to a 3-year low of 862, about 200 points above the December 2008's low of 663. The drop is due to a supply glut of carriers and a slowdown in demand. Carriers that were ordered in 2007/2008 when BDI was well above 10,000 are starting to be completed by shipyards. These new fleet of carriers is expected to increase the total carrier capacity by close to 20%. Raw material demand has been slowing down due to recession in Europe and economy slowdown in China.

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Youth Unemployment Rate

5 unemployed Moroccan men set themselves on fire yesterday (January 18) over the lack of jobs especially for university graduates. Graduate unemployment rate in Morocco is about 16%.

In December 2010, a young vegetable seller set himself on fire to protest against police harassment . The police confiscated his vegetable cart for selling without license. He was slapped and spat upon. The fire also burnt the anger of the entire Tunisian population into starting the Jasmine Revolution.

In Europe, the current youth unemployment rate is at record high.



Spain is fast approaching 50%. Greece is about 45%. Ireland, Italy and Portugal are about 30%. France is heading for 25%. With recession and further austerity drive and near zero or negative GDP growth. I expect more violent in Europe this year especially with high food prices.



Europe cannot be good in 2012.

In US, the finance sector is very bad. Goldman Sachs's 2011 earning dropped 67%, Bank of America earning fell 53% and Morgan Stanley's income down by 42%, despite of cheap money from QE1 and QE2. Federal Reserve may have no choice but to print more money.

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Quantitative Easing 3

Courtesy of www.newsdag.com

QE3 has already begun in Europe.

Click 'New York Post' to read.

European Central Bank has started to tap the Fed for very cheap money.
In fact on 21st December, ECB has put some of this money to work and lent out 489 billion euros to 523 Europe's weakest, most overleveraged and most desperate banks for a full three years.

Jonathon Trugman,"Essentially, we just bailed out Europe's banking system."

Brittany Stepniak,"Although Quantitative Easing technically involves the process of printing money, it's essentially just printing paper that looks and acts like money."

Fed is using these papers in his 'Dollar swaps' with ECB

For the 523 banks, all their problems vaporized. They can now borrow money from ECB at the current prime interest rate of 1%, they can use the money to buy say Italian bonds that pay around 5%. They can then deposit these bonds at ECB as security and borrow more money at 1%. Their next quarterly result is sure to improve provided Italy and other problem nations do not default on their debts obligation that could plunge the eurozone into further financial choas.

Courtesy of www.re-define.org



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福如东海，寿比南山

xx
wee

Dow - wave 2 just dragged on.

One possibility is as shown above where mini wave (iii) has completed, if mini wave (iv) takes one week and mini wave (v) takes another week, that will complete the sub-wave iii and wave 2. I will then expect wave 3 to start.



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Assets Declaration by state Exco members

The declaration is accessible at www.penang.gov.my

Penang Chief Minister Lim Guan Eng said the state Exco members, who hold positions of public trust, believed that the public has the right to demand accountability from them.

"For the first time in Malaysian history, the public declaration of assets was conducted not by the state government but by an independent audit company," said Lim.

Mohd Arshad Raji, "If CM Lim Guan Eng has the courage to order his Exco members to declare their personal assets, why can't PM Najib do it to all his ministers, deputy ministers and secretaries?"

"It takes a Chinese CM to do what a Malay CM or PM should be doing all along."

To read more click 'Mind No Evil'.

Soap from Florence, Organic & Handmade
And it smells really goooood

Persimmon Gelato, Italian Ice-cream

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