Hang Seng - Still in major wave C ?

Colmar Germany

Hang Seng Index gained 746 points (4.14%) today to close at 18,771. This is a big gain and it gave me an uneasy feeling. Am I too bearish? Can the worst be over? It prompted me to recount the waves for Hang Seng.



The run up from March 2009's low has only 3 waves, it has to be the major wave B. The down trend since the 8th November 2010's high of 24,964 has to be the major wave C. Everything looked OK, Hang Seng remains in its major wave C formation. the current rebound is the wave 4 of C. This wave 4 rebound can even go to as high as 22,000 before the starting of wave 5 that can have a 10,000 points drop to 12,000.

Amazing Grace by II Divo

II Divo ("divine male performer" in Italian) is a multinational operatic pop vocal group created by Simon Cowell (one of the judges for American Idol)

Con te Partiro (Time to Say Goodbye) by Andrea Bocelli

With Sarah Brightman

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Dow - Major wave C remains intact.

Indian Innovation

After completing its sub-wave (v) on 3rd October at 10,655, Dow has put on 10% so far to close at 11,808 on last Friday.

Dow is about to complete its wave 2 rebound. I am expecting the next wave 3 down trend to lose at least 3,500 points (1.618 times of wave 1) to below 8,500 level. Major wave C remains intact so far.

Bursa Malaysia

There is a possibility that the Bursa Malaysia industrial Index is forming a 'head & shoulders' pattern as shown above. Hopefully the major wave C can be completed in 2012.



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The Bird Feeder

My friend emailed me the following article said to be written by a Londoner.



The Bird Feeder

I bought a bird feeder.. I hung it on my patio and filled it lovingly
with seed... It was indeed a beautiful bird feeder. Within a week we had
hundreds of birds taking advantage of the Continuous flow of free and
easily accessible food.

But then the birds started building nests in the boards of the patio,
above the table, and next to the barbecue..Then came the bird sh*t. It
was everywhere; on the patio tiles, the chairs, the table ...everywhere!



Then some of the birds turned mean. They would dive bomb me and try to
peck me even though I had fed them out of my own pocket. And other
birds were boisterous and loud. They sat on the feeder and squawked and screamed
at all hours of the day and night and demanded that I fill it when it got
low on food.

After a while, I couldn't even sit on my own back porch anymore. So I
took down the bird feeder and in three days the birds were gone. I cleaned
up their mess and took down the many nests they had built all over the
patio.

Soon, the back yard was like it used to be ... quiet, serene and no one
demanding their rights to a free meal.




Now let's see ....... our government give out free food, subsidised
housing, free medical care, and free education and allows anyone born
here to be an automatic citizen. Then the illegals came by the millions.

Suddenly our taxes went up to pay for the free services; small flats
are housing 5 or more families; you have to wait 6 hours to be seen by a
doctor in an emergency surgery because it is filled with illegal non tax
payers; your child's year 12 class is behind other schools because over half
the class doesn't speak English.

Corn Flakes now come in a bilingual box; I have to 'press one' to hear
my bank talk to me in English, and people waving flags other than 'The
Union Jack' are squawking and screaming in the streets, demanding more rights
and free liberties.

Its just my opinion but maybe, just maybe, it's time for the government
to take down the damn bird feeder.




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Dow - In wave 2 rebound.

US Market gave up about 1.1% after 90 minutes of trading

It is likely that sub-wave a of wave 2 of major wave C has completed. Sub-wave b pullback may not exceed 500 points for Dow.



I prefer to maintain that the Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index is forming the major wave C as shown below. A normal A-B-C corrective wave will bring the index to 1,800 level.


However, a contracting A-B-C as shown below will end the major wave (II) at around 2,200 level. If Dow is expected to head for 5,000, it is unlikely that Bursa Malaysia Industrial index can bottom around 2,200 level. It is too early to draw any conclusion at this moment.


But one thing is for sure, whatever surge is only a technical correction to the downtrend. It is still a long way to go to the ultimate bottom. Looking at problems in US and Europe, I don't think a bull is out there ready to run.



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'Occupy Wall Street' Goes Global

'Occupy Wall Street movement' has entered its fifth week. The protests and demonstrations have expanded across Europe, Asia and Australia.



Protesting against social and economic inequality, corporate greed, corruption, unemployment, high food price, etc. Some have considered the movement as the American variant of the Arab's Jasmine Revolution.



On October 15, similar demonstration were held in London, Berlin, Rome, Paris, Madrid, Sydney, Hong Kong, Taipei, seoul, Mumbai, Cairo and many other cities around the world. It was reported that the movement involved people in 951 cities across 82 countries. In the US the movement has spread over 100 cities.



The violence in Rome was particularly bad. 200,000 people took to the streets clashing with riot police.



The protests in Asia drew only modest numbers, the largest crowd was in Sydney, Australia with about 800 demonstrators.


"The financial system benefits a handful of banks at the expense of everyday people," said Spyro Van Leemnen, "The same people who are responsible for the recession are getting away with big bonuses."



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Dow - It is Option 2

Dow dropped about 100 points on Thursday morning session

The unlikely option that I mentioned three days ago turned out to be the one. Since the last low of 10,655 on October 3, Dow has moved up about 900 points. Last August high of 11,613 can be the resistance to the current sub-wave a run-up. The next sub-wave b pullback may not go below 11,000 before the sub-wave c surge to complete the wave 2 by early November, if wave 2 is a simple a-b-c corrective wave.



I still like to maintain that the Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index is in the major wave C pullback. A normal A-B-C will bring the Index to around 1,800 level. However a contracting A-B-C will end the major C at around 2,200 level.


Based on the above wave count, the Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index is currently on its sub-wave iv of wave 3 rebound. Technically sub-wave iv should not go higher than the sub-wave i's low of 2660. Since wave 2 is a complex expanding a-b-c-d-e wave, wave 4 can be a simple sharp a-b-c pullback. To pave the way for a sharp wave 4 rebound, it is likely that the coming sub-wave v pullback can be quite sharp.



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Dow - Has wave 1 of C ended ?

Same question, has wave 1 of major wave C ended ?


US market rose sharply higher on Monday. Dow rose 2.5% after 2 hours of trading.


If Dow is unable to break the 11,500 level it is like that Dow remains in sub-wave v of wave 1 as shown above.


However if Dow is able to move above 11,500 level, the possibility that wave 1 of major C has ended as shown as Option 2 above. I personally feel that Option 2 has a lower probability if the European markets have yet to complete their respective wave 1.


German DAX is currently having its sub-wave iv rebound.


French CAC 40 is similar to DAX, it is having its sub-wave iv rebound.


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