Commodity - Bearish

It appeared to me that the CRB commodity index has formed a 'Head and Shoulders' reversal pattern and it has dropped below its neckline last week. Its minimum target is the 300 points level. A weak commodity indicates poor demand and a slow down in industrial activity. Stocks indices usually go down together with CRB index especially the mining and agriculture sectors.


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Dow and some major Asian Bourses

Dow dropped 115 point on Friday to close at 11934, resting on its lower support level. Once the lower trend line is broken, Dow is likely to move lower at a steeper gradient.


After reaching its low of 1146 in 2008, Indonesian market has gained more than 200% in the last 30 months as the best performed market.


Whereas Japanese Nikkei index is the worst performed major stock index in Asia.


Singapore STI index has been moving within a wedge. I expect the index to breakout on the downside and is likely to move lower at a higher speed.



Hong Kong Hang Seng index has moved lower and reached its longer term lower support line last Friday. I personally do not think that this support level can hold.

Australian currency might have performed very well due to its commodity based economy, however, its stock market performance is rather poor amongst the Asian Pacific bourses. It is possible that its is heading for a double tops formation.

Once Dow breaks its lower support level, I expect all the other world bourses are expected to break their respective lower support level and dive together with their big brother, the Dow.

How To Heal Yourself

Dow - Another bad day

After 90 minutes of trading
(June 23)

If April's peak is the end of the major wave B, we are only at the initial stage of the major wave C, it is going to be a long journey to the South. The intermediate cycle low for Dow is at 11613.

Nasdaq - I don't think 2616 can hold.

The current rebound is about to finish. On the next down journey, I expect Nasdaq to break the 2616 support level.

A bearish Article by Toby Connor published on June 20, 'The Bear Is Back', click to read. The 2616 level is the intermediate cycle low (as mentioned) for Nasdaq.

It's Showtime

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Last Friday Nasdaq closed at 2616 level, a temporary support level provided by the closing price of mini wave 4 in March.


If Nasdaq continues to move lower in the coming week by breaking the 2616 level in the early part of the week, it will further strengthen the hypothesis that we are at the early phase of a big bear market.



Since November 2011 Hang Seng has continued to set lower highs and lower lows. It has set a new 2011 low at the close of last Friday's session.



Hang Seng has broken the lower support trend line as well as the 22,000 support level on Friday. I expect Hang Seng to continue setting new lows in the coming months.

Another busy week

I am still around
just a little busy




Some people say a man is made outta mud
A poor man's made outta muscle and blood
Muscle and blood and skin and bones
A mind that's a-weak and a back that's strong

You load sixteen tons, what do you get
Another day older and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don't you call me 'cause I can't go
I owe my soul to the company store


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Ekovest - head and shoulders, Part IV

Has wave (iv) of major wave 3 ended?

If Ekovest can move higher from here and break the Rm 3.00 level within the next two day, it is possible that Rm 2.60 level is the end of wave (iv) and the wave (v) of major wave 3 has started. Major wave 3 should be much higher than major wave 1 of Rm 3.60. I expect the major wave 3 to have 9 waves in order to have sufficient height over major wave 1.

The main question is, when the bear is in control of the market, can Ekovest moves higher on its own? As long as there is no panic selling, some stokes still can move higher.