Ekovest - head and shoulders, Part III

Ekovest closed the week at Rm2.64, almost touching its minimum target of Rm 2.60 for its 'head and shoulders' formation. Once this level is broken, the next support is Rm 1.70, the top of sub-wave 1.




For a more bullish wave count, the current downtrend is sub-wave 4. The next surge will be the sub-wave 5 of wave (3). Its price can reach Rm5.80 if wave (3) has a magnitude of 1.618 times that of wave (1).



For a more bearish wave count, the last peak can be the major wave (B) as shown below. Its price has a potential low of below Rm1.00. I think this possibility is quite slim based on the high volume recorded during its last surge, wave B usually has comparatively lower volume.





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Nasdaq - Next rebound can be short and shallow

Nasdaq is likely to have a short term rebound.

If sub-wave 5 is completed, the short rebound may form a 'head and shoulders' reversal pattern.


There is an alternative wave count if sub-wave 5 has not yet completed its journey. A 3-3-3-3-3 diagonal sub-wave 5 may be possible.

Bursa Malaysia

It appeared to me that the run up in the last 2 years is more likely to be a major wave B and it is likely that it has ended its run in January.

The index has reached its lower support line, once the support gives way, the downtrend will be accelerated. It can drop up to 700 points within the next 12 months.



Really has to

Poor MCA

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Fukushima - Something you should know

0.000,001 gram plutonium, inhaled will give you cancer.
454 grams could give everyone on earth cancer.
Each reactor has 250,000 grams of plutonium. There are 6 reactors there.
Plutonium is going to get out and spread all over Northern Hemisphere.
When it rains...............







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World Sell Off

The headline on Yahoo Finance at this moment.

Dow, Nasdaq and S&P have dropped more than 1% as shown below. Nasdaq has dropped to about 2750 after one hour of trading.

Asian market closed generally lower. Hang Seng Index was the worst performer with a 488 points or 2.11% drop.


British FTSE, German DAX and the French CAC40 as shown below have lost between 1.5% and 1.9% at this moment, one hour before closing.


As I have mentioned in my earlier posts, it is possible that the run since March 2009's low has ended. The short term mini waves have confirm the downtrend following by having a low lower than the previous low and high lower than the previous high.



Next I will be looking at sub-waves setting descending new lows and descending new highs.



Courtesy of Yahoo Finance for all the images.


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Ekovest - head and shoulders, Part II

Ekovest on 12th April 2011

In my 12th April post, I have shown the above chart when the price of Ekovest has marginally cut through the neckline of a potential 'Head and shoulders' formation supported by the volume pattern.


Since then Ekovest has dropped another 11%. It closed at Rm 2.94 yesterday. It will have to drop, at least, to Rm 2.60. It can also go much lower than Rm 2.60. But if this is a sub-wave 4 correction, it should not drop below Rm 1.70, the top of sub-wave 1 as shown below.


If Ekovest is heading for a major wave B formation, it will have another surge to form the sub-wave 5, after completing the sub-wave 4. Sub-wave 5 may reach somewhere near Rm 4.00 before starting its journey for its major wave C, that can go back to its 1998's low of below 50 sen. This will happen if Dow is going for double dips.

There is another possible wave count for Ekovest, a very bullish version as shown above. If the sub-wave 5 can reach Rm 5.00 or higher, it is only forming its wave (3). Wave (4) will take more than 12 months to form and the price is expected to hold above Rm 4.00 for an a-b-c correction. Its wave (5) that can start before end of 2012 or early 2013 can reach Rm 6.50 or higher to break its year 2000's height of Rm 7.80.




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We may have seen the peak.

Puente del Alamillo (a beautiful bridge in Spain)

I am rather bearish based on my hypothesis that the strong market run since 2009's low has ended. Wednesday rebound can be the mini wave 4 rebound. I am expecting further decline to complete the mini wave 5, to mark the end of sub-wave i. If the market really moving along this path, the next rebound, sub-wave ii, may climb 2% to form a 'Head and Shoulders' pattern before the starting of the next down wave, the sub-wave iii, that can drop at a steeper gradient.

This is only my hypothesis, I can be wrong.

The initial stage of a downtrend can be quite harmless. Some stocks will continue to surge to maintain the 'safe feeling'. However, most stocks will slide slowly and quietly without getting any attention until they have dropped quite substantially.

KAL's Cartoon

Courtesy of The Economist

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Be Careful.

Nasdaq dropped below 2800 level and the top of mini wave i.

It is possible than mini wave v has been completed, a failure v. It is also possible that sub-wave 5 and wave (iii) were also completed.

As shown below, the historical peaks of Nasdaq and Dow were set in year 2000 and year 2007 respectively. These two indices somehow will have to move inline with each other. To match the two wave forms, Dow will have to take the form of a super wave (IV) for a A-B-C-D-E wave pattern whereas Nasdaq takes on a A-B-C-X-A-B-C formation as shown below.

Let's observe a few more days for confirmation on the completion of major wave 'X' for Nasdaq.

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