A little bit of everything

Wednesday, January 6, 2010

Green Packet - Not as dynamic as has been expected

Green Packet currently is in the process of completing its fifth (5) wave of major wave (III) as shown above.

Its performance in the last two days was rather disappointed. I was expecting a higher volume for its sub-wave (iii), but the daily volumes traded so far were less than its volumes at sub-wave (i) . The volume must improve, or else its form may turn into some other pattern. However if its volume can go higher than that recorded during sub-wave (i) then it is definitely heading for Rm1.70

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

New Year Rally

At the close of the first trading session, Dow closed up 1.5% and Nasdaq gained 1.7%. Nasdaq is definitely pulling away whereas Dow is staying slightly above its short-term upper resistance line. S&P as shown below has similarly set a new high since its 2009's low.

The first candlestick of 2010 for Dow formed a bullish engulfing pattern signaling better times ahead. So far, Dow has completed its sub-wave i and ii of wave 7. Monday's candlestick can be the first candlestick for sub-wave iii.

For Bursa Malaysia, KLCI is likely to extend its major wave (III) from 5 to 9. It has completed wave 6 and is currently in wave 7.

KLCI put on a strong candlestick on Tuesday with a run-away gap as shown. Wave 7, 8 and 9 is likely to stretch until Chinese New Year (mid-February).

After that " Look at the Tiger" with care.

Sense of Responsibility

October 27, 2009 - Egypt Transport Minister Mohamed Mansour resigned over train crash that killed 18 people south of Cairo

September 7, 2009 - Taiwan Premier Liu Chao Shiuan submitted his resignation to the President to take the blame for a disaster triggered by Typhoon Morakot that left close to 700 dead and thousand homeless.

September 19, 2008 - Japan Farm Minister resigned because of a scandal involving tainted rice fed to hospital patients and school children.

January 5, 2010 (The Sun) - Two F-5E jet engines worth Rm 100 millions missing from RMAF air force base in Sungai Besi. Attorney-General: Only lower ranks involved. "No senior officers are involved". He said the priority now was to recover the engines.

Monday, January 4, 2010

Sir Frank Swettenham - British Malaya

My friend emailed to me this link to the above book by Sir Frank Swettenham
He referred me to page 231 and 232 that talked about the hard working Chinese tin miners that brought in capital, they cleared the forest, constructed road, etc etc and they produced half the world's tin supply............"Their energy and enterprise have made the Malay States what they are today" .............

I am a Chinese, my father came from China when he was 16, he came here because of the Sino-Japanese war in China. I believe most of the early Chinese that came here (Bolehland) were more because of wars, famines or business rather than they came here with the mission to help the local. I know Chinese businessman very well, when they take out $1 only when there is a chance to double or triple the $1. They cleared forest, they constructed road, etc, were more for business, trade, making money, transporting tin, machinery and food supply, etc. and not so much to meet the local's social needs. They worked hard to make money, to survive and to send money back to China to their families. I don't believe they worked hard to help to develop this 'Bolehland', development was only a byproduct and not as their main mission.

A fact remains that these Chinese did contributed to the development of the Malay States whether intentionally or unintentionally. Before 1957 the Chinese were hand in hand with other races to fight for the Independance of the Malay States. After 35 years of independance it is ridiculous to hear terms such as 'Pendatang' or 'Ketuanan'. All Malaysian are pendatang except the Orang Laut, the Jakun, the Kadazan, the Iban and other natives, the only difference is the place of origin of the pendatang; the Chinese came from the north, others came from the north (Yunan), the west (India) and the south, but we are all Malaysian.

Sunday, January 3, 2010

2010 - What to expect.

According to Robert Kiyosaki

1. Real estate market will crash again

A 'Mortgage Reset' is simply a mortgage is due for refinancing. In September 2008 when mortgage reset hit $35 billion, there were many default due either to couldn't afford (jobless) or natural way (property value is so much lower than the financing cost). Its impact on Dow is as shown below.

2. The current stock market rally will probably turn into a dead cat bounce.

3. Gold, Silver and Oil - Safe investment in 2010

From Omaha.com

Ron Carson of Carson Wealth Management Group - The economy could remain rocky and could spiral into another recession by mid to late 2010.

Jeff Sharp, a financial adviser at SilverStone Group - Hitting new lows in the stock market is remote. The market is more likely to be about 10% higher by end of 2010 or remain about even.

Roland Manarin of Manarin Investment Counsel Ltd - Market to stay strong at least through 2010.

From Merrill Lynch Asia (Bank Of America) strategist - S&P 500 could soar another 40% by December 2010 before it collapses completely based on a unique comparison with Nikkei 225......

From Marc Faber - Stocks may have another 10% to 20% correction, followed by another rally.

From Robert Prechter - Another crash in 2010 that will bring stocks below 2009's low.

Personally I will assume that Dow is heading for wave 7, 8 and 9 and monitor Dow closely along this hypothesis. The cut-off line is as shown in green below, I will hold only cash once Dow drops below this short term support line in green. Once it breaks the longer term lower resistance line in red, Robert Prechter will start laughing.

And of course I will not forget that the Tiger Year in Chinese Zodiac begins on 4th February 2010. Will this 2010 tiger bring disaster to Bursa Malaysia the way the previous three Tigers did in 1998, 1986 and 1974 ( drops averaging 70%) ?

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Back to Reality - My second day of 2010

Ir. Koon donated Rm 200,000.00 to an Election Fund (May 2009)

My friend emailed to me an article by Koon Yew Yin, one of the founders for 3 listed (Bursa Malaysia) construction companies, Mudajaya, IJM and Gamuda. His article Bumiputra Contractors: A Wasteful National Mission To Date (November 18) readily pulled me back to reality.

Many other interesting articles can be found at the website Centre For Policy Initiatives.

Friday, January 1, 2010

My wife's Roast Pork and Teochiew Kueh - Yummy Yummy

I know, for my age, I cannot eat too much of fatty pork but I simply cannot resist my wife's roast pork, it is simply delicious. New Year ma, never mind lah.