Dow - When will the uptrend end ?

If wave v of the major wave (3) has started and if the duration of wave v is about the same as wave i, then wave v will end at about one month from now on first week of January 2011. Target price for Dow is about 12,000 to 12,200.


My projected target for the bottom of mega wave 6 is around 5,000 for Dow.

This is a more optimistic hypothesis, assuming the super cycle wave (III) that started in 1932 has 9 waves and this current bear cycle since October 2007 is mega wave 6 that may end by 2012.

A more pessimistic hypothesis is to assume the super cycle wave (III) has only 5 waves and it has ended in October 2007 and Dow is currently forming its super cycle wave (IV) that can easily last for 10 to 12 years with wave a from 2007 to 2011/2012. Wave b and c may stretch until 2020

Refer to the "Median and average sales prices of new homes sold in US" published by U.S. Census Bureau. Its chart is as shown below.



The sales prices reached its peak in March 2007, 7 months ahead of Dow's peak in October 2007. Its bottom in March 2009 before the rebound is same as that of Dow, also March 2009. The interesting data is its October 2010 figure, which has dropped lower than its March 2009 figure. Some analyst expect the sales prices to bottom by early 2012, will the Dow follow suit as in 2007 ?