Sunday, February 22, 2009

AIG - What does the market know that we don't ?

From the 5-days chart shown above, AIG has dropped from Monday's height of 90 US Cents to Friday's low of 49 US cents (45% drop) and closed at 54 US cents.

From the daily chart shown above, the stock opened at 56 cents on Friday, 3 cents lower than Thursday's closing price of 59 cents, and the stock was sold all the way to 51 cent with high volume and rebounded also with high volume back to 56 cents. This initial down and up most likely was due to short selling and the subsequent short covering. After the first hour roller coaster, AIG slowly drifted down to 49 cents with low volume, these were more genuine consistent selling. After touching the intra-day low of 49 cents again without giving way, more buyers came in and the stock was able to recover some ground to close at 54 cents. We all know why it dropped from US$72 to the current level but it is hard to understand why stock holders were willing to sell at 50 cents. Are the sellers know something that we don't??? To buy this stock is really a gamble, very high risk. But if there is no further bad news from now on and when the Dow started its Major Wave B rebound, AIG can easily go to US$2 or may be US$5 if AIG's lucky star is shinning.

2 comments:

sawhs said...

I attended market chat last saturday organised by Kenanga and met a AIA man who is with AIA since 1975 until now.According to him if the stock is below USD 1.00 for a month the stock could be delisted.His concern is will the US Govt prefer to make them private company before coming in to save it. Could this be one of the thing the market know that we don't?

Chan Kwang Yew said...

I learned from discussions at Google Finance that NYSE has a ruling to delist stocks with a 30-days average price of below US$1.00. I also learned that NYSE has not imposed this ruling during the current financial crisis as illustrated by the continuing listing of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae even though their prices have been staying well below US$1.00 since early December 2008.