Merry Christmas

 

Dow (30,015) - Forming its wave (iii)

From the 13-Year monthly chart, Dow is currently forming the wave (iii) of its major wave 1 of its mega wave (3).

FBMKLCI (1,631) - Sub-wave iv correction

KLCI dropped another 15.97 points or about 1% today to close the day at 1,631 level. From its recent sub-wave iii's high of 1,684, KLCI has dropped about 3.1%, which is about the same magnitude of the sub-wave ii's correction of 3%. If the current correction is the sub-wave iv, KLCI is about time to start its sub-wave v.

Since the sub-wave iii's advance is only 7.8%, which is smaller than that of the sub-wave i of 10.2%, I expect wave (iii) to have 9 sub-waves.

Dow (30,046) - Ready for the next sub-wave iii run-up ?

Dow moved side way for a week and lost 172 points (-0.57%). If Dow can move higher next week and begin a new round of record breaking, it is possible that the Friday's low of 29,821 is the end of sub-wave ii and sub-wave iii has started.

But if Dow continues to move side way for the next two or three days it is possible that it is forming the mini wave 2 of the sub-wave iii.

FBMKLCI (1,684)

KLCI gained a total of 63 points or 3.9% during the week in the process of forming its sub-wave iii.

Since its sub-wave i gained 10.2%, for a normal 5-wave wave (iii), sub-wave iii should at least be able to gain 10.2% too to 1,720 level. In an extended sub-wave iii, it is possible that it can gain 1.618x10.2% or 16.5% to 1,820 level. 

By assuming the magnitude of mega wave (7) to be at least equal to the magnitude of mega wave (5) of about 130%, the minimum target for mega wave (7) is 2,800. It will take about 5 years to complete the mega wave (7).

Dow (30,218) - Another new record high

Dow ended Friday at another new record high. If Dow can break its upper resistance line next week with another new record closing, it will be on its way to complete its sub-wave iii of its wave (iii), which is expected to be dynamic with high volume.

 

And if Dow is unable to break its upper resistance line next week and starts to move lower instead of higher, most likely it remains on its sub-wave ii consolidation with a abcde-X-abc corrective wave. Sub-wave iii formation will have to wait for a while.

FBMKLCI (1,628) - Sub-wave iii of wave (iii) started

KLCI added 29 points to reach a new high of 1,628 since its 19 March's low of 1,219.

This sub-wave iii of wave (iii) is expected to be more dynamic and broad base in nature with higher than average volume.

Since sub-wave i gained 10.2%, sub-wave iii is expected to gain at least 10.2% to reach 1,720 in a normal 5-wave advance. And wave (iii) is also expected to gain about 29%, same as that for wave (i), to reach at least 1880 level.

Mega wave (1), (3) and (5) gain 286%, 174% and 128% respectively, assuming mega wave (7) can gain around 130%, mega wave (7) is expected to end around 2,800 level.

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FBMKLCI (1,607) - Continues to form its mega wave (7)

Since my last update on KLCI on October 25, KLCI has formed a complex corrective wave (ii) of abc-X-abc and has started the sub-wave i of its wave (iii). If KLCI con continue to move higher next week, we can assume that wave sub-wave iii has started.

But if KLCI were to continue with its side way movement next week, then it is still stuck in its sub-wave ii.