Merry Christmas

 

Dow (30,015) - Forming its wave (iii)

From the 13-Year monthly chart, Dow is currently forming the wave (iii) of its major wave 1 of its mega wave (3).

FBMKLCI (1,631) - Sub-wave iv correction

KLCI dropped another 15.97 points or about 1% today to close the day at 1,631 level. From its recent sub-wave iii's high of 1,684, KLCI has dropped about 3.1%, which is about the same magnitude of the sub-wave ii's correction of 3%. If the current correction is the sub-wave iv, KLCI is about time to start its sub-wave v.

Since the sub-wave iii's advance is only 7.8%, which is smaller than that of the sub-wave i of 10.2%, I expect wave (iii) to have 9 sub-waves.

Dow (30,046) - Ready for the next sub-wave iii run-up ?

Dow moved side way for a week and lost 172 points (-0.57%). If Dow can move higher next week and begin a new round of record breaking, it is possible that the Friday's low of 29,821 is the end of sub-wave ii and sub-wave iii has started.

But if Dow continues to move side way for the next two or three days it is possible that it is forming the mini wave 2 of the sub-wave iii.

FBMKLCI (1,684)

KLCI gained a total of 63 points or 3.9% during the week in the process of forming its sub-wave iii.

Since its sub-wave i gained 10.2%, for a normal 5-wave wave (iii), sub-wave iii should at least be able to gain 10.2% too to 1,720 level. In an extended sub-wave iii, it is possible that it can gain 1.618x10.2% or 16.5% to 1,820 level. 

By assuming the magnitude of mega wave (7) to be at least equal to the magnitude of mega wave (5) of about 130%, the minimum target for mega wave (7) is 2,800. It will take about 5 years to complete the mega wave (7).

Dow (30,218) - Another new record high

Dow ended Friday at another new record high. If Dow can break its upper resistance line next week with another new record closing, it will be on its way to complete its sub-wave iii of its wave (iii), which is expected to be dynamic with high volume.

 

And if Dow is unable to break its upper resistance line next week and starts to move lower instead of higher, most likely it remains on its sub-wave ii consolidation with a abcde-X-abc corrective wave. Sub-wave iii formation will have to wait for a while.

FBMKLCI (1,628) - Sub-wave iii of wave (iii) started

KLCI added 29 points to reach a new high of 1,628 since its 19 March's low of 1,219.

This sub-wave iii of wave (iii) is expected to be more dynamic and broad base in nature with higher than average volume.

Since sub-wave i gained 10.2%, sub-wave iii is expected to gain at least 10.2% to reach 1,720 in a normal 5-wave advance. And wave (iii) is also expected to gain about 29%, same as that for wave (i), to reach at least 1880 level.

Mega wave (1), (3) and (5) gain 286%, 174% and 128% respectively, assuming mega wave (7) can gain around 130%, mega wave (7) is expected to end around 2,800 level.

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FBMKLCI (1,607) - Continues to form its mega wave (7)

Since my last update on KLCI on October 25, KLCI has formed a complex corrective wave (ii) of abc-X-abc and has started the sub-wave i of its wave (iii). If KLCI con continue to move higher next week, we can assume that wave sub-wave iii has started.

But if KLCI were to continue with its side way movement next week, then it is still stuck in its sub-wave ii.

Fintec Global Bhd (Rm0.105) and Fintec-PA (Rm0.05)

Fintec announced its quarterly earning on Thursday evening after the end of the trading session.

For quarter ending 30 September, the company is still losing money on its normal business operation, losing Rm3.22 million. However the company made a profit of Rm16.892 million from the sale of its marketable securities but the main bulk of its profit of Rm720.5 million is from 'Fair Value Gain' on its investment securities.

Earning per share is 61.52 sens. Net assets increased from 35 sens to 91 sens a share.

Despite fantastic figures reported, Fintec started today's trading at 11 sens, went to a high of 12 sens and closed the day at 10.5 sens gaining only 1 sen. It shows that investors pay no attention to 'paper gain' unless and until it is realized with solid cash on disposal.

Further checking revealed that the fair value gain was mainly contributed by its holding in Focus Dynamics that has its price increased from 85 sens on 30 June to Rm2.22 on 30 September. The fair value gain for its 517 million (before the 1:3 share split) Focus was Rm708 million. It should be noted that at today's closing price of 65.5 sens ( after the 1:3 share split) for Focus, the fair value lose due to focus at per today is about RM131 million

Looking at Fintec's 10-year chart, since its March's bottom of around 2 sens, it has completed its major wave 1-2.

From the 1-year chart, the 12 sens high recorded this morning is likely to be the end of sub-wave v of wave (i) unless Fintec can move higher next week for a higher sub-wave v.

If Fintec starts to move lower next week, then today's rebound is more likely to be the mini wave 2 of C of major wave 2 that has a potential low of 5 sens. This option is unlikely unless the price of Focus starts to plunge in the next few weeks.

Fintec Global Bhd -ICPS (Rm 0.05)

Fintec-PA, with face value of 8 sens, that will expire on 4/12/2027 has a conversion price of 16 sens before the current on-going Right-Issue. The holders of Fintec-PA are entitled to convert Fintec-PA into Fintec ordinary share by (i) Convert 2xFintec-PA(2x80 sens) to 1xFintec or (ii) Using 1xFintec-PA(80 sens) plus cash of 80 sens for 1xFintec. 

With reference to the Circular issued on 9 October related to the current Right-Issue, click 'Circular' for details, on page 58 & 59, the tentative computation showed that the new conversion price after the Right-Issue is about 11 sens, that is 5 sens lower than the original conversion price of 16 sens. Need to wait for an official announcement from the company to confirm the new conversion price of 11 sens. Rightfully the company should officially announce the new conversion price for all ICPS and Warrants on the Ex-entitlement date of the Right-Issue (on 24 November).

Looking at today's closing price of Fintec (10.5 sens) and Fintec-PA (5 sens), I noticed there is a mismatch in price between the two if I assumed that the final new conversion price for Fintec-PA is 11 sens as computed in the 9 October 'Circular'. 

Since the face value of Fintec-PA is 8 sens and if the conversion price is 11 sens, I can either (i) exchange 11/8=1.375 shares of Fintec-PA for 1xFintec or (ii) I can use 1xFintec-PA (8 sens) plus cash of 3 sens to get 1xFintec. As per today closing price, when Fintec is at 10.5 sens, rightfully the price of Fintec-PA should be (10.5-3.0)=7.5 sens instead of 5 sens. The difference is 2.5 sens and that is 50% of 5 sens. 

I hope my analysis is on the right track, or have I made any mistake? or any wrong interpretation? If I am right, then today's Fintec-PA price of 5 sens is greatly underpriced.

Dow (30,046) - A new record high above 30,000 level

Dow added 783 point or +2.67% within two days and closed above the 30,000 level. With this 2-day's surge after its completion of its 5-wave c of sub-wave ii, Dow has started its sub-wave iii. Currently Dow is on its mini wave 1 of iii.

The mega wave (3) is expected to take another 10 years to complete. Since the mega wave (1) gained 357%, the mega wave (3) is expected to gain at lest 357% in a normal 5-wave formation unless the super wave VII is going for a 9-wave formation then the magnitude of the mega wave (3) can be smaller than that of the mega wave (1).

From the mega wave (2)'s low of 18,213, a 357% gain will bring the mega wave (3) to above 80,000 in 10 years.

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Dow (29,483) - Really heading for Ending Diagonal Triangles ?

Dow closed Thursday trading with little change. But with the initial down followed by a small rebounds on Thursday, another followed through rebound in the next two trading days will see the completion of diagonal triangles.

But if Dow were to move lower in the next two trading days, then we can rule out the diagonal triangles with the 5-wave down-trend formation that will lead to the a-b-c wave ii option that I mentioned yesterday.

Dow (29,438) - A notorious 344 points drop on Wednesday

Out of my expectation, Dow has a 344 points drop on Wednesday. The drop may appeared to be small, only -1.16%, but it causes a change to the chart pattern with great implication - a possible terminal diagonal triangles formation.

This pattern usually appears at the termination points of larger pattern, indicating exhaustion of the larger movement. This 344 points drop brings back the super wave VIII option that I mention previously as one possible outcome again. 

Besides this bearish option, another possible bullish option is the expanding A-B-C major wave 2 option with a -14.8% correction that I mentioned on Tuesday

But I am praying very hard that Dow can continue to drop for another day or two to complete an expanding sub-wave ii of major wave 3 formation. If this is the ultimate outcome then Dow will continue with its new record setting next week. Hopefully by the end of this week we can have a clearer picture.

Dow (29,950) - A new record high on Covid-19 vaccine news

Dow surged 470 points (+1.6%) to a new record high of 29,950 at the close of Monday trading session after Mordena's released preliminary data showing its vaccine candidate was 94.5% effective in preventing Covid-19 infections.

With the Dow surpassing is previous record high of 29,568 and with the possibility of a covid-19 vaccine be available in the near future, Dow is likely on its way to form the mega wave (3) of its super wave VII.

The mega wave (1) took 11 years to move from 6,469 level from March 2009 to 29,568 level on February 2020 for a gain of 357%. The mega wave (3) is expected to have a magnitude that is at least equal to (if not more than) that of the mega wave (1) of 357% gain in a 5-wave movement for its super wave VII unless the super wave VII is a -9-wave movement then the magnitude of mega wave (3) will be smaller than the mega wave (1).

Assuming a minimum gain of 357% for mega wave (3) in the next 11 years in a 5-wave movement, Dow has a minimum target of 83,000 by the year 2031. In general the third wave is expected to be longer than the first wave by Fibonacci ratio of 1.618 or 2.618 in a 5-wave movement.

Dow after reaching a new intra-day record high of 29,933 on Monday, it closed the day trading at 29,157 level, gaining 834 points or +2.95%. The run continued into Tuesday gaining another 262 points (+0.9%).

With great possibility, this is the sub-wave i of the wave (i) of its major wave 3 of mega wave (3). I still need the Dow to continue with its sub-wave iii's run into record territory to above 30,000 level to put beyond any doubt that mega wave (3) is the option.

But the 10.5% pullback for the major wave 2 of mega wave (3) appeared to be a little small when compared to the major wave 2, 4, 6 and 8 of mega wave (1) that ranged from -14.6% to -19.4%. 

It is possible that the current major wave 2 of (3) correction is not over yet. There is a possibility of an 'expanding triangle' A-B-C major wave 2 corrective wave formation of -14.8%.

The super wave VIII option that I mentioned previously may appear to be very unlikely at this moment but technically it cannot be ruled out yet. Just to be a little cautious I will keep it at the back of my mind for a while until such time that it can be ruled out technically.

US Dollar - Is this the beginning of its long wave 3 decline?

USD/MYR (4.1285)

From its March 2020's high of 4.4455, USD?MYR has dropped 7.13%. It is possible that USD is on its long journey to the South. If it is so the only question now is how low can it go and will the Malaysian Ringgit be able to strengthen to those good old 'tiger economy' day of Rm2.50 to US$1.0?

 

Looking at the monthly chart of USD?MYR, if it continues with is current trend, by end of 2021 it is likely to punch through the neckline of its 'Head and Shoulder' at around 3.80 and before end of 2022, it may be able to complete the wave 3 of its wave C of (2) at around 3.50 or below. By the end of mega wave (2), the Ringgit is likely to go below Rm3.00 to US$1.00.

Dow (27,847) - Heading for new record high ?

If Dow can break the upper trend line, then the current run-up is the major wave 3 of its mega wave (3).

But if Dow is unable to breakaway, the current run-up will be the wave D of its complex A-B-C-D-E major wave 2.

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Covid-19 A very misleading map.

While going through some reports, I came across the following map showing the percentage change of 7-day (moving) average of confirmed new cases of Covid-19 from October 23 to October 30, 2020.

From the title 'Where Coronavirus is Surging around the World' this map is supposed to show people how bad or how good the situation of new covid-19 cases in a particular nation on October 30, 2020.

Judging by the colour, one may have the following conclusions:

1. Canada, US, Brazil China and Japan  are equally bad with 10% to 50% increase on October 30.

2. Russia performed better with only 0% to 10% increase in 7-day average.

3. India and Argentina are very good with 10% to 50% drop in 7-day average.

I don't know what is the intention of the person producing this map. But if this map is from the US and with the Presidential Election on November 3, possibly the message is to tell the American that the situation of Covid-19 in the US is not that bad. The US is as good as Canada, China and Japan.

But the moment one refer to the latest report (November 2) from the WHO, one would tend to wonder what is happening.

The US ranked No. 1 with 88,905 new cases and 522 new deaths on November 2. India is No. 2 with 37,592 new cases and 497 new deaths. Brazil is No. 3 with 8,501 new cases and 168 new deaths and Russia is No. 4 with 18,257 new cases and 238 new deaths. Argentina No. 7 with 9,598 new cases and 483ew deaths, whereas China (with a population of 1,439 million)  is ranked No. 56 with 24 new cases and zero new deaths, and Japan ( with a population of 126 million) ranked No.50 with 667 new cases and 8 new deaths.

The question is how can the US (88,905 new cases, 522 new death, population 331 million) and Brazil (8,501 new cases, 168 new death, population 213 million) be classified the same colour as China (24 new cases, zero death, population 1,439 million) and Japan (667 new cases, 8 new deaths, population 126 million) ???

How can Russia (18,257 new cases, 238 new deaths, population 145 million) be better than China and Japan ???

How can India that ranked No. 2 (37,592 new cases, 497 new deaths, population 1,384 million) and Argentina that ranked No. 7 (9,598 new cases, 483 new death, population 45 million) are very good with blue colour ???

The explanation:

Technically there is nothing wrong with the map but the way of preparing and presenting the map is questionable and the intention is also questionable.

1. The data used is 7-day (moving) average. Since the date mentioned in the map is from October 23 to October 30, I would assume that the comparison is between the 7-day average from October 23-29 (7 days) and the 7-day average from October 24-30 (7 days).

2. The number of new cases could be hovering around 80,000 for a population of 331 million (US) from October 23 to October 30 or it could be hovering around 24 cases for a population of 1,439 million (China), but as long as the percentage increase is 10% to 50%, on the above map, they are classified as the same. For example an increase of 10,000 new cases to the 80,000 cases is 12.5% and similarly an increase of 3 new cases to the 24 cases is also 12.5%, so the same. But can they really be the same category ???

3. Russia with yellow colour (0% to +10%) performed better than China with orange colour (+10% to +50%). But Russia with 18,000 new cases for a population of 145 million, with a 5% increase is 900 new cases. So its 7-day average increase from 18,000 new cases to 18,900 new case (5%) can be said to be better than China that has its 7-day average increase from 24 cases to 27 cases (12.5%) for a population of 1,439 million ???

4. India (ranked No. 2) and Argentina (ranked No. 7) performed very well with blue colour (-10% to -50%). But India with new cases at 37,592 with even a 20% drop, there are still 30,000 new cases. Argentina with 9,598 new cases with 20% drop, there are still 7,679 cases. Statistically based on the format of preparing the above map, these two countries performed much much better than China and Japan, but in actual fact are the covid-19 situation in these two countries really that good and better than China and Japan?

5. For example Solomon Island.

 

A country that has total cases increased from 8 to 13 with 5 new cases. assuming its 7-day average was 1 days and with a spike of 5 cases on the 8th day, its 7-day average will increase from 1 case to 1.57 cases, an increase of 57%. The colour code for this country will be red, blood red, and this country will be interpreted by the map at a glance as a country with covid-19 situation worst than the US, India, Russia, Brazil, etc but in WHO Covid-19 country ranking Solomon Islands is ranked No. 213 with total cases 13, new cases 5, total death at zero.

In conclusion, don't simply accept any statistical presentation of charts or maps. Technically the data used and the figures produced can be perfectly accurate and correct and statistically nothing wrong but the opinion presented can be twisted to suit the presenter's intended motive. Be careful.