Dow - Mini wave vii

Dow (17,716)

Dow moved into mini wave vii at the close of Wednesday trading session. Still a long way to go to complete its major wave (7).

Crude Oil WTI (US$37.80)

Crude oil continued to move lower to complete its wave b. Hopefully it can end around US$36.00 before its next wave c of 4 rebound. After that I will be looking at US$24.00 to end its wave (iii).

Wave (iv) technically should be able to reach US$60.00 a barrel in 2017.

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Burrsa Malaysia - Slow and boring

FBMKLCI (1,703)

KLCI can be considered as 'well-behaved' but most of the stocks were moving side way for most of the time. KLCI is expected to move higher next week to complete the sub-wave iii.

FACB Industries Incorporated (Rm 1.11)

FACB took almost 2 years to complete its major wave 4 consolidation. Its major wave 5 has a possible high of Rm 3.00.

From September 2015 to January 2016, Facb has completed the wave (i) and (ii) of its major wave 5. Since early February, it has been moving side way for 7 weeks with prices fluctuating within a 4 sens margin between Rm 1.02 and Rm 1.06.

On Wednesday Facb managed to break the Rm 1.06 resistance to close at Rm 1.08. It dropped back to touch the Rm 1.06 level again on Thursday before pulling away to close at Rm 1.11 on Friday.

I have mentioned previously that this is a value-for money stock. It has almost zero borrowing and has Rm 153 million cash. Its cash per share is Rm 1.80 and yet its stock price has been staying around Rm 1.02 for such a long time. Its latest quarterly earning is 0.97 sen a share and net assets per share is Rm 2.41.

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Insas Bhd (Rm 0.74)

From its 2009's bottom, in the last 6 years Insas has completed its major wave 1, 2, 3 and 4 and wave (i)-(ii) of major wave 5.

Wave (ii) of major wave 5 was completed in February. Since then Insas has formed the mini wave 1-2.

In the last two trading sessions, Insas has added 3 sens (+4.2%) with improved volume. Very likely mini wave 3 of wave (iii) has started.

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Malaysian Market - Ready to run ?

FBMKLCI (1,716)

Is KLCI ready to have a stronger run-up? Or is it going to go down all the way because of the low oil price, weak currency, 1MDB and the existing political situation?

I always believe that the chart pattern is the product of all the factors that affect the market, I don't really have to look into the implications of all the above mentioned issues. I just have to look at the chart and try to read it correctly.

Looking at the 20-year chart, I still like to maintain that KLCI has been forming its mega wave (5) since 2009.

So far, since 2009, it has completed its major wave 1-2-3-4 and is on course to complete its major wave 5 by 2017.

Since September 2015, it has completed the wave (i)-(ii) and sub-wave i-ii of its major wave 5.

In the first three weeks of March, very likely, if I am right, KLCI has completed the mini wave 1-2 and minor wave i-ii of its sub-wave iii.

I am looking for a breakout next week by the minor wave iii with high volume. In fact the volume has started to pick up on Thursday and Friday.

Berjaya Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.425)

BJCorp  has been moving in a down-trend channel in the last 5 years since 2010 trying to complete the wave C of its mega wave (2).

If my reading is correct, it is forming the major wave 4 of its wave C.

There are two positive development on the chart. Its bottoms have started to flatten out and its OBV at its current price is much higher than its previous highs recorded in April 2015 and October 2015.

If the chart is well behaved, it is expected to complete its wave 4 rebound within the next 2 to 3 months before its final plunge to below 34 sens to complete its mega wave (2).

But for a stock that has been moving down-trend for 5 long years and has been pressed down for so long, there is always this possibility that the upward momentum can be so strong that the last down wave, the mega wave 5, can be missing. If this is going to be the case, then the 34 sens low recorded on 20th January will be its recorded historical low.

I personally considered BJCorp as a value-for-money stock with latest quarterly earning of 2.47 sens a share and net assets per share of Rm1.60.

Calvin Tan has been recommending this stock in the last few years, you can click to read his article 'Berjaya Corporation - The Berkshire Hathaway of Malaysia', written in September 2014 when BJCorp is around 50 sens. BJCorp is a good stock but it can be very frustrating for an investor to hold that stock at 50 sens from September 2014 until January 2016 to see the price to drop to 34 sens for a paper loss of 32%.

And if one is as rich as Warren Buffett or Calvin, one can always buy more BJCorp as its price goes lower and I believe ultimately one can be the final winner by holding on to his BJCorp.


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Dow - Major wave (7) of super wave VII in progress

Dow (17,325)

Dow is about to complete its mini wave 3 of sub-wave i.

From the 9-year chart, it becomes more likely that Dow is forming its major wave (7).

At this stage I still like to maintain that the 2009 low of 6,547 is the end of the super wave VI of Dow.

For this super wave VII that has moved from 6,547 to 17,325, Dow has gained 164%. But when I compared this gain with that of super wave I of 373%, super wave III of 981% and super wave V of 1,410%, I feel that Dow still has a long way to go for this super wave VII unless it is a failure VII.


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Crude Oil - Rebound about to end

Crude Oil WTI (US$36.12)

After moving briefly above US$38.00, crude oil price (WTI) has started to move lower again. Has the mini wave 4 rebound ended ?

My guess is 'Not Yet', because in the monthly chart, the March candlestick must remained 'green' until end of the month to complete the mini wave 4.

Looking at the daily chart, most likely, the current pullback is the the wave b of 4. The next surge may be able to touch US$40.00 to end the mini wave 4.

The mini wave 5 is likely to go lower than US$26.00 but is unlikely to go below US$20.00 to complete the wave (iii).

The next wave (iv) rebound is expected to last about 12 months until first half of 2017 and may reach US$60.00 as shown in the monthly chart.

After that I expect the assets bubble to burst and crude oil to plunge from US$60.00 to well below US$20.00 to complete the big A-B-C that has its beginning in July 2008.

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Mulpha International Bhd (Rm 0.29)

Mulpha closed at 29 sens today, 4.5 sen (18%) above its all-time low of 24.5 sens. From the 20-Year chart, one can see that its price is near its all-time low and its OBV is close to its record high.

Mulpha's last 4 quarters earnings are 1.94 sen, 0.62 sen, 1.95 sen and 3.44 sens with net assets per share at Rm 1.20.

Its latest quarterly earning of 3.44 sen is inclusive of a gain of Rm 50.39 million on disposal of subsidiaries and Rm 9.84 million on dilution of interest in associates.

If my ABC-X-ABC wave count is ultimately proved to be correct, then 24.5 sen could be its all-time record low. At 29 sen, Mulpha can be considered as value for money.

This guy called Calvin Tan has put up an article 'Top 10 Reasons Why I Am Now Turning Bullish on Mulpha!'. Click to read.

At this point I would like to point out that when a stock's price is at its all-time low and its OBV is at its all-time high like what Mulpha is having now, it is not necessary that the stock has bottomed. One good example is Price Worth International Bhd (Rm 0.115).

In September 2011, when PWorth is at 32 sen (price at all-time low), its OBV is close to its all-time high. It reported a quarterly earning of 0.72 sen a share and net assets of Rm 1.49 a share, everything looked OK to me but PWorth continued to move lower in the next 4 years and 5 months to today's 11.5 sens and its OBV continued to move higher. PWorth latest earning is 0.07 sen a share with net assets at Rm 0.47 a share.

So, has Mulpha bottomed ? I don't know. Your guess is as good as mine.

Technically, even if my hypothesis of ABC-X-ABC wave count for Mulpha is correct, at this juncture, there are two possible short-term wave counts for Mulpha.

If Mulpha can hold around its current price for a short while and then move higher, then it is forming its mini wave 2 now.

But if it continues to move lower and lower, then wave C has 9 sub-waves instead of 5 sub-waves as shown below.

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Weekly Update

Crude Oil WTI (US$35.92 a barrel)

Crude oil (WTI) is forming its mini wave 4 (of sub-wave v of (iii)) rebound.

Wave a of its mini wave 4 has either ended or is about to end.

Dow (17,006)

Dow will continue with its sub-wave i formation in the next 3 to 4 weeks.

FBMKLCI (1,692)

If KLCI can break its upper channel line, then it is at its sub-wave iii.

However if  KLCI starts to move lower next week, then last Friday high is the end of its mini wave 5 as well as the end of its sub-wave i.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm 0.94)

EG so far has completed its wave a-b and sub-wave i-ii of its wave c of 4.

Farms Best Bhd (Rm 0.74)

Farmbes has one more wave to go, its sub-wave ix, to end its wave (i).

Pan Malaysia Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.28)

PMCorp is currently forming its mega wave (5).

It is either forming the wave c of its wave (iv), if it continues to move lower next week.

Or it is forming the sub-wave vii of its wave (iii) if it can move higher next week.

At PMCorp's EGM held on 3rd March, 2016, the shareholders had approved among others, a capital distribution of 8 sens a share to all existing shareholders.

For its latest quarter ending 31th December 2016, PMcorp reported losing 0.02 sen a share. Net assets is 50 sens a share. It has Rm 134 million cash with only Rm 0.25 million borrowing. Cash per share is 17 sen.


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