Dow, PWorth and KSL

Dow (16,851)

Dow continues to form its wave (xi). The next up-leg will be the mini-wave 5 of sub-wave iii of wave (xi).

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.23)

PWorth started its mini wave 9 on Friday. Will it continue to form mini wave 10, 11, 12 and 13 before ending its sub-wave i or will it sub-wave i end at mini wave 9 to be follow by a higher degree sub-wave ii correction ?

Whatever is it, I am not going to move in and out of this stock until end of August before it announces its next quarterly earning for 3 months ending 30th June. I still like to maintain that this can be a goldmine where a Rm100,000 investment can turn into Rm 1 million. This is my personal opinion. You buy at your own risk. Nothing is 100% sure in stock investment.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 2.30)

KSL's chart looks very bullish. It has a jump start on Monday with high volume and with a gap. It is kind enough to go for a 3 days pullback for those who has miss the train to jump in. On Friday it started to move again with a strong candlesticks. It appeared to me that it is going to cross Rm2.40 on Monday, forming the mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii of wave (iii). Let's wait until Monday to see whether it is really the very dynamic 3 of iii of (iii).

 

KSL is a very solid stock. For 3 months ending March 2013, its earning is 14.80 sens a share with net assets at Rm3.49 per share.

The long-term chart of KSL is an inverted head and shoulders pattern.

Looking at its long-term chart, KSL is currently forming its mini wave 3 of iii of (iii) of 3 of (3). Fantastic if my wave count is correct. As usual, I can be wrong too.

Is KSL finally ready to run fast fast ?

Just a reminder, KSL has a warrant at Rm1.02

 

Conversion price is Rm1.60, one warrant to one ordinary share. The premium is about 14%, not that high.

TheEdge has put up an article for this stock on Friday. Click 'Hidden Gem' for the report.

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Eucalyptus Trees - A potential third golden crop for Malaysia

Beautiful Eucalyptus Trees

PWorth added another 3 sens (+15%) to close at 22.5 sens with very high volume. That is the mini-wave 7.


Eucalyptus Trees

Eucalyptus is the world's most widely planted hardwood spices. Its growth rate varies from 6 ft to 10 ft a year. The tree is resistant to disease and insects. It has wood properties highly desired for multiple uses as pulpwood, sawntimber, plywood and other Engineering uses.

Click 'Eucalyptus Tree Plantation' for more information.


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Priceworth International Bhd

PWorth surged at the opening bell today. It opened with a gap at 19 sens and closed the day at 20 sens with high volume.

So, that is what I have hoped for, it has formed 5 mini up waves, thanks to a report published on Saturday by TheStar. The possibility is high that the 16 sens level is the bottom and PWorth is in a new up-trend cycle.

Click 'Priceworth's Turnaround Plan' for the report mentioned.

From the report, It is interesting to note the following points mentioned by the Executive Director of PWorth, Richard Koo.

1) PWorth is expected to return to the black for the current quarter ending 30th June.

2) With the acquisition of Beta Bumi, which holds a 20,000ha timber concession area in Sabah, Priceworth now has a total of 28,000ha where it will implement a sustainable forest management programme for 50 years.

3) Forest replanting programme was started in 2009 when PWorth has replanted 1,000 ha. To date the company has replanted 4,200 ha.  The remaining 28,000 ha will be replanted within the next 3 to 4 years. They can plant 625 tree in one hectare.

4)With an eight-year harvesting cycle, Koo says Priceworth expects to obtain around 100,000 cu m of timber per month from 2017 onwards. He expects the mills to operate at 'at least' 80% capacity. Currently the mills are operating at 30% capacity.


From another 'Report' by The Sun Daily on 26th May, 2014, the fast growing eucalyptus trees were the type of trees planted by PWorth.

It was reported in 'Tree Farmer Magazine' that 'Eucalyptus tree can reach a harvestable size (up to 70 ft in height and 7 inches in DBH (Diameter at Brest Height) in as little as 6 to 8 years.'

By 2017, that is 8 years from 2009. the first 1,000 ha planted in 2009 will be ready for harvest. The maximum possible volume of a 7 inches diameter x 70 ft tree is about 0.5 cu.m. 1,000 ha with 625 tree an hectare will yield 312,500 cu.m a year or 26,000 cu.m a month.

If the balance 28,000 ha can be planted within next 4 years (by year 2018), that is to say within 9 years from 2009 to 2018, a total area of 32,200 ha would have been planted. For 8-year cycle of harvesting, every year the company can harvest 4,000 ha. And with 26,000 cu.m. a month per 1,000 ha. 4,000 ha. can yield 100,000 cu.m. of log a month. That will be by the year 2023, the earliest.



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Dow, FBMKLCI, GPharos and PWorth

Dow (16,947)

For Dow long-term wave count, I still like to maintain that the March 2009's bottom of 6,547 is Super Wave VI. Since then Dow has been forming its Super Wave VII.

Since March 2009, Dow has completed its major wave (1)-(2)-(3)-(4) and wave (i) to (x) of its major wave (5) of mega wave 1. Dow is currently on its wave (xi). After that there will be wave (xii) correction and then the next run up to wave (xiii), a potential major turning point. It can either go for a 10% to 15% major wave (6) pullback.

Or it can be the very damaging mega wave 2 pullback. It may drop to its major wave (4) level of 10,655 for a 40% pullback. It may also go for a 100% retracement to the starting point of mega wave 1, the March 2009's 6,547 level. Don't play play.

Looking at the 6-month chart, Dow is forming the mini-wave 5 of its sub-wave iii of wave (xi), still months to go before reaching the potential turning point of wave (xiii).

FBMKLCI (1,885)

For Bursa Malaysia FBMKLCI, the index is currently forming its major wave 3.

For its major wave 3, so far it has completed its wave (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv) and sub-wave i-ii.

At this moment, the index is forming the mini-wave 5 of its sub-wave iii of wave (v).

Golden Pharos Bhd (Rm0.965)

GPharos has a small rebound on Friday, if the correction is over, GPharos will move above Rm1.00 to form its mini-wave 7 next week.

 

However, if its correction continues, then last week high can be the sub-wave i. The current sub-wave ii pullback may bring the stock price to 80 sens or below, a golden opportunity for me to accumulate more.

GPharos has announced its log production for May. Log production has dropped from its April 5,329 hpt to May 2,915 hpt (1 hpt = 1.8 cu.m), a 45% drop in production. 

For GPharos to repeat its 1st Quarter's earning of 14.48 sens a share, its June log production has to be at least 3,500 hpt. If it can achieve that, then its half-year earning will come to about 30 sens a share. At this moment it is too early to talk bout a possible 60 sens a share for its whole year earning.

Priceworth International (Rm 0.175)

I hope PWorth can move higher next week to form a mini wave 5 so that the 16 sens low has a higher possibility to be the bottom for this stock. More important I hope PWorth can announce a log production figure of at least 6,000 cu.m for its May output.

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ILB & PWorth

Integrated Logistics Bhd (Rm 0.875)

ILB instead of going for a 3 to 4 days consolidation to form its mini wave 3 and 4, it rebounded and moved higher today forming a lower degree wave i & ii. This formation is more bullish and this wave count can be confirmed if ILB continues to move higher tomorrow.

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.185)

PWorth added 1 sen to close at 18.5 sens today. It remains too early to tell whether the 16 sens level is the turning point for this stock. Its long-term chart remains bearish technically.

If it can form 5 little waves in an up-trend channel as shown below in the next few days, there is a possibility that 16 sens is the bottom.

My two questions for PWorth remained the same as what I have asked in my 7th June's post :

"Is 16 sens the bottom ?" and
"Is PWorth a potential 'Goldmine' ?"

Looking at its high log production's figures, contributed by its newly acquired Beta Bumi, for March and April, if the coming May and June's figures are about the same or higher than that for March and April, I would expect PWorth to announce good positive earning for its 2nd quarter.

The prices of log, sawntimber and plywood continue to move higher in 2014. Unfortunately the Malaysian Timber Industry Board (MTIB) does not have a log index for Malaysian logs like the one shown below that I managed to get from runescape.wikia.com.

The above log index is made up of a weighted average of all of the current logs listed in the Market Watch. 

To know more about this log index and the type of logs covered by this index, click 'Log Index' for more information.

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Olympia Industries Bhd (Rm0.185)

A penny stock with subsidiaries involved in property investment/development, stockbroking, 4-D gaming and travel & tours operation.

Olympia added 1 sen today to end the day at 18.5 sens with high volume. It is possible that it has found its bottom at 11.5 sens by end of December 2013. The strong OBV indicates that this stock has been under accumulation on its way down since 2011.

 

During the first 5 months of 2014, it has completed wave (i) - (ii) with very bullish overlapping  sub-waves i to v.

Olympia started its wave (iii) with a bang with extremely high volume in May after it has announced good earning of 0.8 sen a share for its 3rd quarter ending March 2014. Its net assets is 33 sens per stock. Since  then it has completed its sub-wave i - ii and mini wave 1 - 2.

It is very likely that mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii of wave (iii) started today with high volume of 24.9 millions share traded. Wave 3 of iii of (iii) is expected to be very dynamic with high volume. I hope I am right.


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Integrated Logistics Bhd (ILB)

ILB opened with a gap and gained 7 sens (+8.7%) with high volume today. It ended the day at 87 sens.

It is forming the mini-wave 3 of its sub-wave vii of wave (iii).

Its 2014 first quarterly earning is bad, it lost 1.40 sens a share. Net assets per share is Rm1.92. Its balance sheet is very solid.

It has Rm175 million cash in hand after it sold its subsidiaries in China for Rm246 millions in 2013.

After deducting its borrowing of about Rm80 millions, its cash per share is 58 sens. This is a solid stock but it has to improve its earning.

Bonescythe.blogspot.com has a detail writeup for ILB. Click 'ILB-Bonescythe' for the article.



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Dow - No major correction until wave (xiii) is completed.

Dow started to pullback last week. It is either forming its sub-wave ii of wave (xiii) currently as shown below,

Or Dow is forming its mini-wave 4 of sub-wave iii of wave (xi).

Whether it is option 1 or option 2, the overall trend is up until wave (xiii) is completed.



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Golden Pharos - It is mini wave 3

Golden Pharos Bhd (Rm 0.955)

GPharos added 14 sens (+17%) to close at 95.5 sens today confirming the mini-wave 3 option with high volume. Today's candlestick is the first candlestick of mini-wave 3, still a long way to go, but watch out for the unexpected. In stock market, nothing can be 100% sure.

Pan Malaysia Corporation Bhd (Rm 0.24)

PMCorp added 1.5 sen (+6.6%) today to close at 24 sens. Wave (v) in progress.

If PMCorp continues to move higher tomorrow, then it is likely that it has just completed its mini-wave 1-2 of sub-wave i of wave (v). Mini-wave 3 has started.

However, if PMCorp fails to move higher and starts to move side way, then it is forming a higher degree sub-wave ii of wave (v). Sub-wave iii run-up has to wait for a while.

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Golden Pharos Bhd - A Golden Swan (Ben Gan)

Golden Pharos Bhd (Rm0.815)

GPharos dropped another 2 sens today to close at 81.5 sens with low volume. I have developed 3 possible scenarios for GPharos at this juncture.

Scenario 1 - GPharos starts to move up again from this level. It has formed sub-wave i-ii and and is forming mini-wave 1-2. Next up is mini wave 3, very bullish.

Scenario 2 - GPharos drops further to 75 sens or below to complete its sub-wave iv. Next up will be sub-wave v with target at 95 sens and that can be the end of wave (iii) to be followed by a higher degree wave (iv) pullback.

Scenario 3 - Gpharos is forming a running a-b-c corrective wave to complete sub-wave ii. Next up will be the sub-wave iii of wave (iii), should be very dynamic with very high volume.

Ben Gan of Blisswise.blogspot.com has put up a detailed writeup for this stock. In his opinion, GPharos should worth at least Rm2.44 based on his analysis.

Click 'From An Ugly Duckling to A Golden Swan' for his article.


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FACB Industries Incorporated - Update

Facb announced  a poor 1st quarter earning, losing 0.47 sen a share. Facb made 3.24 sens a share in its previous quarter. Its latest net assets per share is Rm 2.51. However its balance sheet remains healthy.

 It has cash of Rm 148.8 million and zero borrowing.

Facb has 84 million shares, thus cash per share is Rm 1.77. It ended today's trading at Rm 1.37, very cheap but its earning is lousy.

There are two possible wave counts for Facb. First possibility is wave (ii) formation.

It will need another month or two to complete the wave b & c of its wave (ii).

 

The second possibility is more bullish, it is forming its sub-wave ii at this moment and it may have ended.

If Facb can move up strongly with high volume from this level, it is possible that the next surge is the sub-wave iii with a minimum target at Rm1.80.

So, if it can surge within this or next week, it is possibility 2 :). Failure which, it is possibility 1, half dead for the next 1 to 2 months :(

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