Dow - sub-wave iv correction (3% to 4%)

Dow dropped about 182 points, about 1% to 16,698 after about 2 hours of trading on Thursday morning.

Dow continues to move lower in its process of forming its sub-wave iv. A possible support level for sub-wave iv is the top of sub-wave i at around 16,500 level.

From its recent high of 17,113 to 16,500 level, the correction is about 3.5%

KSL (Rm 3.00)

KSL gained 20 sens today to close at Rm 3.00 with very high volume of 7 millions shares.

Currently KSL is forming the minor wave vii of its mini-wave 3 of sub-wave iii of wave (iii).

Looking at its long-term chart, there is still a long way to go for KSL to complete its mega wave (3).

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Dow - Cook Cumulative Tick

 Dow - Forming sub-wave iv

Mark Cook, winner of the 1992 U.S. that developed a primary indicator, the 'Cook Cumulative Tick', believed that based on his indicator, the market will suffer a 20% or greater pullback within 12 months.

He said, "There have been only two instances when the NYSE Tick and stock prices diverged radically, and that was in the first quarter of 2000 and the third quarter of 2007. The third time was April 2014."

Dow dropped 34% from December 1999 to September 2002 and it dropped 53% from October 2007 to March 2009.

Click 'Bear Market within 12 Months' for the article.

Golden Pharos Bhd (Rm 1.05)

GPharos added 9.5 sens today to close at Rm1.05. It is possible that GPharos is forming the wave b of its wave (iv). This can be confirmed if it starts to come down in the next few days.

However if it continues to move higher tomorrow, then it is more likely that wave (iv) has been completed and GPharos is on its way to complete its wave (v).

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Listen to Komal Sri-Kumar

Komal Sri-Kumar is President of Santa Monica based Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, Inc., a macroeconomic consulting firm that advises multinational firms and sovereign wealth funds on global risk and opportunities.

In an interview by Yahoo Finance this morning, he has these to say :

"When you have all this liquidity chasing a fixed number of assets, the asset price inflation takes place."

"It looks as if there is no end to the zero interest rate, so the bubble is going to get even bigger."

"It's very hard to say when the bubble is going to burst'"

"20,000 is way too high. We are probably going to see a 2,000 or 3,000 points drop before we see Dow 20,000 years from now."

He is talking about 15% correction for Dow before it reaches 20,000.


Click 'Dow poised to drop 3,000 points' to listen to what he has said.


Advance Synergy Bhd (Rm 0.225)

ASB was traded actively to close at its high of 22.5 sens (+12.5%) with improved volume of 14.3 million shares. Is this the starting of its wave (v) of major wave 1 of its mega wave (3) ?

In May, it moved from 14 sens to 26 sens (+85%) within 10 trading days to complete its wave (iii). Since end of May it has been forming its wave (iv).

I have been wondering whether wave c of (iv) was going for 5 or 9 waves. With today's powerful candlestick, it appeared to me that wave c has only 5 waves and wave (iv) has finally ended.

However, technically there is still a possibility that this rebound could be the wave d of (iv), if the rebound is a one-day affair, then the next down is the wave e of (iv). Hopefully ASB can continue to move higher tomorrow to put it beyond any doubt that wave (iv) has ended and ASB is forming its wave (v) currently.

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My favorite stocks

KSL added 17 sens (+6.4%) to close at Rm 2.81, forming the minor wave v of mini wave 3 of sub-wave iii of wave (iii). It still has a long way to go. I hope I am right.

GPharos is trying to complete its wave c of its wave (iv). It may drop to 80 sens to complete its wave (iv).

If Priceworth can continue to move higher tomorrow, that can be the mini wave 3 of its sub-wave iii. I hope it can be a goldmine.

Sometimes it can be interesting to listen to what the Feng Shui Master has to say. 

For MH 370 and MH 17 his comment is only one - MAS has offended the Grand Duke Jupiter this year.  

MAS 犯太歲

KSL - Minor wave iii in progress.

KSL managed to break its upper resistance line on Friday and to close at Rm 2.64. With this breakout, it appeared to me that KSL is forming its minor wave iii of mini-wave 3 of sub-wave iii of wave (iii). Hopefully it can move further up to put it beyond any doubt that minor wave iii is in progress.

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KSL - minor wave iii ?

It is possible that finally KSL started its minor wave iii today. It added 13 sens to close at Rm 2.57. This possibility can be confirmed if KSL continues to move higher tomorrow with higher volume.

However, if it starts to come down tomorrow, it is also possible that sub-wave iii has been completed as shown below with a wedge formation.

 

Since it is very rare to have a wedge formation for any third wave, I personally think that the first option has a higher possibility.

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Bursa Malaysia - FBMKLCI

FBMKLCI is forming its long-term mega wave (5). It has so far completed the major wave 1 and 2 of mega wave (5).

For its major wave 3, it has completed wave (i), (ii), (iii) and (iv) and sub-wave i and ii of its wave (v). It is at the tail end of its sub-wave iii.

It has completed mini wave 1, 2, 3 and 4 of its sub-wave iii

At this moment the minor wave ii of its mini wave 5.

Still a long way to go for FBMKLCI to complete its mega wave (5).

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A test of patient.

KSL failed to take-off today and instead it started to pullback. If it continues to go lower in the next few days, then it is forming the mini wave 4 of sub-wave iii. However KSL still can run higher in the next trading session after today's one-day rest.

Golden Pharos looked more and more like forming an a-b-c wave (iv).

Priceworth looked exciting today. Is this green candlestick the first candlestick of sub-wave iii ? If it can move higher than 24 sens in the next few days, then it is sub-wave iii.

 

But if it is unable to move higher than 24 sens, then its is forming an a-b-c sub-wave ii. 

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Dow - No danger

I expect Dow to move higher in the next few days to form the minor wave iii of its mini-wave 5 of sub-wave iii of wave (xi). The next possible major turning point is at wave (xiii), Dow will take a few months to reach that point if I am right.

A crucial level to watch is the 16,800 level. I will have to revise my wave count if Dow goes below that level. Once that happened, it can mean that Dow has a failure mini-wave 5 and its sub-wave iii is completed. 

If Dow has no danger, you need not worry about FBMKLCI. Keep a close watch on KSL. Hopefully it can open with a gap with high volume on Monday and move on with its minor wave iii.

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KSL, GPharos and Priceworth

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm2.46)

The Friday's candlestick of KSL looked bullish. If KSL can open with a gap next Monday and started to move higher, then it is the minor wave iii of mini-wave 3 of sub-wave iii of wave (iii). Very bullish.

Golden Pharos Bhd (Rm 0.905)

It appeared to me that GPharos is probably forming the wave b of its wave (iv). Wave c may bring the stock to 65 sens level to complete its wave (iv). Be careful.

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.205)

For 4 days, PWorth is able to hold around 20.5 sens level. Can this be the bottom of sub-wave ii. If it can move higher next week, that can be the starting of its sub-wave iii.

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KSL and Golden Pharos

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 2.46)

KSL added 10 sens (+4.2%) today to close at Rm 2.46. Mini-wave 3 in progress.

With a quartery earning of 15.80 sens a share and net assets per share of Rm 3.49, its closing price of Rm 2.46 looked cheap. Looking at its long-term chart below, it has a potential of going to Rm 5.00 or Rm 6.00 if its quarterly earning of 15.80 sens can be maintained.

Golden Pharos Bhd (Rm 0.895)

Finally, I managed to find out the reason for its high quarterly earning (January to March 2014) of 14.84 sens a share. Out of its quarterly gross profit of Rm 29.43 million, Rm 27.29 million came from an one-off logs sales proceeds from a tender to extract logs from 2,076 hectares of its 2,553 hectares timber concession that was given to the company by the Terengganu State Government earlier. Without this one-off item, its gross profit from its normal operation for the last quarter is only Rm 2.14 million. For this reason, I don't expect its next quarterly earning to be good.

From its long-term chart, GPharos is forming its wave (iii) currently.

At this moment, GPharos is either forming the sub-wave iii (very bullish option) of its wave (iii),

Or it has already completed its wave (iii) and is forming the wave b of its wave (iv) as shown below.

If its next quarter earning is not expected to be good, it is more likely that GPharos is having its wave (iv) correction at this moment. I am not as optimistic as before for this stock and I have started to reduce my holdings on this stock.



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Priceworth, KSL and Golden Pharos

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm0.22)

PWorth has completed 9 mini-waves to form its sub-wave i. Sub-wave ii is in progress. Hopefully sub-wave iii can bring the stock to 35 sens level.

KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm2.26)

The powerful surge a week ago that I thought was the starting of mini-wave 3, it turned out to be the wave b of mini-wave 2. KSL gained 2 sens today with improved volume. Hopefully this is the starting of mini-wave 3.

Golden Pharos Bhd (Rm0.88)

Option 1 : 
If GPharos can start to run and go above the Rm1.00 level, then it is possible that it has completed its sub-wave ii correction and it is forming its sub-wave iii at this moment. Hopefully sub-wave iii can reach at least Rm1.50.

Option 2 :
If GPharos is not able to cross the Rm1.00 level next week, then it is possible that the previous peak is the end of wave (iii), it is forming its wave (iv) at this moment. It may need another 2 weeks to complete its wave (iv).

 

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Dow - Closed above 17,000 for the first time

Dow set another new high and closed above 17,000 level for the first time. It added 92 points on Thursday to close at 17,068. Mini-wave 5 of sub-wave iii of wave (xi) continues.

Still a long way to go before Dow reaches a possible major turning point at wave (xiii). Only at that junction I have to worry whether Dow is going for its major wave (6) correction,

 

or the assets bubble has finally burst, where the mega wave 2 correction can bring Dow to 10,655 level for a 40% pullback. The worst case scenario is a 100% retracement for mega wave 2 to go back all the way to its starting point at 6,547 level.

 

Hopefully Dow can be well-behaved in completing its wave (xi), (xii) and (xiii), I do not wish to have a heart attack.

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Golden Pharos Bhd

GPharos gained 11 sens (+13.5%) today to close at 92 sens with improved volume.

It is either forming its sub-wave iii currently,

Or it is forming the wave b of its wave (iv).

If it can continue with its up-trend and break the Rm 1.00 level with higher volume, it will be more convincing that sub-wave iii is in progress.

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