Malaysian Ringgit - Is The Worst Over ?

USD/MYR (4.1325)

Malaysian ringgit recovered strongly against the USD in June. The June red candlestick has almost completely reclaimed the losses of the May green candlestick, very close to but not exactly an engulfing pattern.

If the July candlestick can be another red candlestick, very likely wave iii of C has started. If the USD/MYR can drop below its previous low of 3.86 level and assuming wave C is going to form only 5 major waves instead of 9 or 13 waves, wave iii may go all the way to the 3.20 level before a meaningful wave iv rebound to 3.40 level.

Pray hard that the chart doesn't evolve into something else.

Dow (26,599)

Dow is on its way to to the upper trend line to complete its wave iii of D. Will it really turn South after touching the 27,000 level?

FBMKLCI (1,672)

KLCI continues with its wave C of (6) formation.

Since the current rebound is too big to be a minor wave ii rebound and its magnitude is almost the same as that of the mini wave 2, I have no choice but to assign a mini wave 4 (despite the overlapping) to the current rebound to replace the minor ii that I have assigned previously.

If KLCI were to move lower starting next week, then mini wave 5 is on its way.



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Biggest Joke In Town

Police to re-investigate Teoh Beng Hock case as one of 'Wrongful Confinement' instead of 'Culpable Homicide'.

He had fallen to his death while in MACC custody, don't tell me the policeman squatting beside the dead body was merely interested to establish whether the dead person's confinement was wrongful or otherwise. It is illogical, stupid, mad and crazy.

Must send this to Maszlee Malik

Dow - A sucker wave D ?

Dow (26,753)

Sorry for jumping into a 'too-early' conclusion that the Dow Jones Industrial Average has completed its wave D with a failure wave  and was forming its wave E. 

With Dow gaining a total of 641 points (+2.45%) within three days to reach 26,753 that is 97 points higher than its previous high of 26,656, it appeared clearer now that this is the wave iii of D. There is another 300 points to go to reach the upper trend line at 27,050 for a new record high.

Will Dow turn south upon touching the 27,050 level or will it punch through the ceiling and go all the way to 30,000 and beyond? To be on the safe side, I would prefer to stick to my original wave count that Dow is about to complete its wave D.

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Is Dow heading for a 20% correction ?

Dow (26,089)

I hope I am wrong, but if I am right, Dow is about to complete the wave ii of its wave E of its major wave 8. Wave iii is likely to have 5 or more sub-waves.

FBMKLCI (1,638)

My reading for KLCI remains the same, it is likely to move south in tandem with the US market.

Pinehill Pacific Bhd (Rm 0.325)

Both Pinepac and United Plantation announced on 11 June (Tuesday) that the Perak State Authority has approved the acquisition of 8,999.13 acres of land by United Plantation from three wholly-owned subsidiaries of Pinepac. Barring unforeseen circumstances both parties expect the deal to be completed before September 2019.

Pinepac will be getting about Rm413 million from the land disposal, that is about Rm2.75 per share of Pinepac.

In its 2018 annual report, the book value for these lands is Rm244 million. Its net assets will increase by Rm169 million or increase by Rm1.13 a share to Rm1.60 a share. Its earning for quarter ending 30th September 2019 will be more than Rm1.00 a share.

But the funny thing is Pinepac share price continued to stay around 32 sens level and closed at 32.5 sens on Friday. What's wrong?

From the chart, if Pinepac has completed its wave (ii) at the end of May, it has formed two small 'up' waves so far, if it can have another small minor wave 'up' to form a five-wave mini wave 1, then the next pullback is likely to be the mini wave 2. Pinepac is likely to move higher strongly after that to complete its wave (iii).

But if Pinepac is unable to have another small 'up' wave next week, the Wednesday intra-day high of 34.5 sens recorded after the announcement could be the wave b. Next two weeks is likely to see the formation of its wave c to end its wave (ii).

Hopefully Dow can move lower gradually in a not so damaging manner to give Pinepac a chance to form its wave (iii) upon receiving its Rm413 million from United Plantation.

Malayan United Industries Bhd (Rm0.24)

Mui on 13 December 2018 announced that Tan Sri Dato' Khoo Kay Peng retired as Mui Executive Chairman and handed over the position to his 46 years old son Andrew Khoo Boo Yeow.

On 30 April 2019, Mui announced the appointment of N.M. Rothschild & Sons Limited by Corus Hotel Limited, an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Mui, as financial advisor in relation to the sale of Corus Hotel Hyde Park, London.

In 2014, it was reported by TheEdge that Mui was seeking to divest Corus Hotel Hyde Park for 200 million pound. At current exchange rate of Rm5.30 to 1 pound, in Ringgit it is 1.06 billion.

From its long-term chart, Mui has been moving side way since 2008. on Friday, it share price closed at 24 sens, resting exactly on its upper resistance line that it had failed to break in 2014 and 2017. If Mui can move above the resistance line, most likely major wave 3 is on the way.

But if Mui is unable to break this upper trend line, Mui is forming a ABCDE-X-ABC major wave 2. It needs more time to sell the hotel.

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Weekly Update

Dow (25,983)

Dow rebounded strongly in the last 4 trading day gaining 1,164 points or 4.69% to close at 25,983 level. This rebound is likely to be the wave ii of its wave E. The wave i has ended early and higher than what I have expected.

Under this circumstances wave iii is expected to have 5 sub-waves.

FBMKLCI (1,649)

If KLCI has completed its minor wave (ii), it expect it to move lower next week to form its wave (iii).

It is still a long way to the south for both the Dow and the KLCI, unless I am totally wrong in my current wave count. It is a fact as stated in the 'Elliott Wave Principle', corrective wave is more unpredictable in the sense that it can have many variations or forms.

Selamat Hari Raya

Weekly Update

Dow (24,815)

Dow will continue with its wave E of major wave 8 formation.

FBMKLCI (1,650)

KLCI continued to form the wave C of its mega wave (6).

Hopefully by the time Dow has completed its major wave 8, KLCI has also completed its mega wave (6).

USD/MYR (4.1905)

USD/MYR continued to form its wave ii of C of (2). It may go to 4.3 level to form a 'head and shoulder' reversal pattern. That should be the worst that can happen to the Ringgit, provided my reading is correct.

The next down for USD/MYR after completing its wave ii will pave the way for the Ringgit to appreciate strongly against the USD in year 2020 and beyond.

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