Nian - The Monster Beast

Today is the 15th day of the Chinese New Year (CNY) and it marks the end of the CNY celebration or the end of 'guo nian' (过年) or 'the passing of the beast'.

Nian, the monster beast. Courtesy of chinaa2z.com

In Chinese mythology, 'Nian' is a beast that lived deep under the sea and high up in the mountain. Nian would come out on the night before the Chinese New Year to prey on domestic animals and humans especially children. Since Nian was sensitive to noise, fire and red colour, to prevent the Nian from entering the house and to chase the Nian away, the tradition was to decorate the doors and windows with red papers, to dress the children in red and the parents would give their children red envelopes to be placed under their pillows to protect them, to explode firecrackers on the New Year eve until the morning of the new year to scare the Nian away.

I believed all these during those happy days as I believed in whatever my Grandma said. I would help my Dad sticking red papers on our doors and windows. On new year eve, I would not sleep until I got my red envelope from my Dad and put it under my pillow to make sure that Nian would not appear in my dream.

But now with all the youngsters wearing black, no more red papers on doors and windows and no more firecrackers (tidak boleh) to chase the Nian away, The future of Chinese looks very bleak and dangerous as that 'Tidak Boleh' is Nian's good friend and Nian eats only Chinese, that was what my Grandma said, you better believe her.

Definition for politician
POLITICIAN:
One who
shakes your hand
before elections
and your Confidence
Later

FIMA Corporation Bhd

FIMA Corporation Bhd announced its 3rd Quarter earning (ending December 2009) of 25.06 sens per share with net assets per share of Rm3.75. Its cumulative earning for the first 3 quarters is 59.92 sens per share. If it can maintain its 4th Quarter earning at 25 sens, it will have a projected earning of 85 sens per share.

At the close of Friday trading, FIMA Corp put on 36 sens to close at Rm3.58, looks rather cheap if we are talking about a projected earning of 85 sens per share.

FIMA Corp is a property management and investment holding company in Malaysia, the company is also engaged in the production of confidential documents and bank notes for the Government.

In recent years its earning has improved greatly as shown above. Since 1998 after hitting a low of about 40 sens, its stock price has been moving up steadily within an up trend channel as shown below. Is it going to break its upper trend line next week?

One of the possible wave count for FIMA Corp is as shown below. Its stock price is currently at sub-wave iii of wave 5 of its major wave (III). This is a good but thinly traded, value for money stock.

Shanghai and Hong Kong Bourses

Roses are beautiful but the flower can last at most 3 to 4 days.

Shanghai SSE Composite Index is at its last journey of its major wave (II). SSEC will finish its sub-wave iv and v of wave C next month. Will SSEC start its major up-trend wave (III) before end of March ? Just watch out.

Hang Seng has been doing its balancing act between SSEC and Dow as both the markets have their respective influence on Hang Seng. But judging from the wave count, Dow appears to have a greater influence on Hang Seng.


Hang Seng appears to be at its last journey of its major wave (IV). I suspect Hang Seng wave (V) will run at the same time as Shanghai SSEC provided Dow does not deviate from its current appeared to be wave (I)-(II)-(III)-(IV)-(V) pattern.

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Dow - Recoup early losses to close with 53 points down

Dow dropped sharply at the opening of Thursday trading due to disappointing economic data in jobless claim, house prices and durable goods orders. At its lowest Dow dropped 189 points (1.8%). However buyers emerged in the afternoon to push prices higher and managed to trim Dow's losses to only 53 points at the close.

Wave (V) remains on course, no sign of the big 'C' so far. Technical indicators are well behaved. Thursday candlestick is a hammer. Is Dow going to hammer all its way up in the next few sessions ? Keep your fingers crossed.

Dow OK. Latitude Tree Holdings Bhd Good

My current monitoring on Dow is to assume that Dow is forming a (I)-(II)-(III)-(IV)-(V) pattern until such time when there is sufficient signs to show that this assumption is wrong. For Dow to continue with its major wave (V) formation, Dow should not have correction exceeding 3% and the technical indicators must hover around the top. So far so good, non of the above rules has been violated. Thus Bursa Malaysia should be OK too.

Courtesy of www.flickr.com

Latitude Tree reported a 2nd Quarter (ending December 2009) earning of 17.63 sens per share, which is almost identical with its 1st Quarter earning of 17.20 sens, that gives a half year earning of 34.83 sens. Can this means its full year earning is going to be 70 sens per share. With a net asset per share of Rm 2.95, the stock is rather cheap at today closing price of Rm 2.17.

If it can move above Rm 2.30 in its next run-up, its previous low at Rm 2.10 is the end of wave vi, then it is on its wave vii run-up.

Courtesy of jayceooi.com

Mitrajaya Holding Bhd

Mitrajaya is principally involved in Civil Engineering, building and road construction works, supply of construction material, manufacturing and sale of premix, etc.

It reported today its 4th Quarter earning ending December 2009 of 14.6 sens per share. Total earning for 2009 is 33.61 sens per share. Net Asset per share is Rm2.06, it closed today trading at 68 sens. Looked cheap.

Its long-term chart is forming a double bottoms. Mitrajaya has started to buy back its own share since February 2005. It bought back another 93,800 shares today at 68 sens. Cumulative treasury shares to date is 7.257 millions shares. A good stock to keep.

Mtouche and Green Packet

If Dow is not heading for the big C and Bursa Malaysia Industrial Index is forming the (I)-(II)-(III)-(IV)-(V) wave form as shown below.

Mtouche can be interesting to watch based on wave count. I wouldn't want to talk much about its fundamental, earning is poor and asset backing is equally poor but its OBV is very strong and the company has been buying back its stocks from the open market. Any surge to above 28 sens can be the begining of a new story. Failure which it will continue to move up and down within the channel.

For GPacket Rm 1.10 could be a strong support level to form its wave (IV), there is one more wave (V) to go as shown.

Lily Of The Valley

I really love these little white bells, have a nice name too, Lily of the Valley, lovely.

It is the National Flower of Finland. Besides white colour, some are pinkish and some are darker pink.


On 1st of May in France, men usually present a bouquet of this flower to their ladies to express their affection.


This woodland plant is native throughout the whole Northern hemisphere in Asia, Europe and Eastern USA.

This is a perennial plant that forms extensive colonies by spreading underground stems. New upright shoots are formed at the end of each stolons or nodes in Summer. These upright shoots grow in the spring into new leafy shoots with two leaves and a flowering stem.

Flowering in early March, the flower has a sweet scent.

The fruit is a small orange-red berry.

The plant has been used for medicinal purposes. It is believed to strengthen memory and to restore speech. However all parts of the plant are considered poisonous despite its alleged powers.

Courtesy of Wikipedia and Chrisser of flickr.com from yahoo

Dow - Not out of the wood yet

Lily of the Valley - Courtesy of Chrisser (flickr.com)

The technical indicators managed to move back to the upper range. For the next 2 to 3 weeks if the indicators can hover around the top in a side way direction as shown below, then Dow is heading for (I)-(II)-(III)-(IV)-(V) formation. Before the completion of major wave (V) any short term pull back should not exceed 3%.

However if the technical indicators are unable to stay at the upper level in the near future and start to move lower as shown below, Dow may be heading for the big C especially if Dow drops more than 3% and goes below 9712 level.

So, what to do now? As I have said before, I will monitor Dow along the (I)-(II)-(III)-(IV)-(V) scenario and watch out for any sign of the big C.

HPI Resources Berhad

Peach Blossom luck for the unmarried

HPI Resources Bhd's principal activities are the manufacture and sale of corrugated boards, carton boxes and plastic film packaging products, lorry transportation services, vehicle repairs and services. It operates in Malaysia and Cambodia.

It is a small company with a share capital of only Rm 53.229 millions (53.229 millions shares of Rm1.00 par value). The Group reported earnings of 11.91 sens and 11.51 sens per share for its 1st quarter (ending 31/8/09) and 2nd quarters (ending 30/11/09) respectively. With half year earning of 23.42 sens (whole year earning say 45 to 50 sens) and stock price at Rm1.64, this is definitely a value for money stock. Its wave count is as shown below.

It is currently at wave 3 of major wave (V).

Dow - Wave Count based On Technical Indicators

During the Chinese New Year holidays, besides eating, drinking and blackjack I managed to spent sometimes on alternate wave counts for Dow. One way is to count the waves based on technical indicator's behaviour.

Based on technical indicators, major wave (III) will have to be at the location as shown below. To have 5 waves for major wave (III), wave 2 has to be a 'running a-b-c' as shown below with a 'triangle a-b-c-d-e' wave 4.


Under this scenario, the 9908 low recorded on February 8 could be the end of major wave (IV), it is possible that Dow has already started its major wave (V) and has formed 5 mini waves so far and it is about time to have a small pullback. If Dow is in its wave (V) the technical indicators should stay at the upper levels for the next two to three weeks.

Dow gained 169 points on Tuesday to move back into the uptrend channel, quite a positive development. May be, I should monitor Dow's movement based on this scenario until it is proven wrong.


In the last market uptrend before the current correction, stocks that are related to rubber gloves have a strong surge but their current pullback were equally sharp, but based on their wave counts, most of these stocks have one more surge, the wave (v).

Dow - Major Wave (IV) to be confirmed

For Dow to confirm wave (IV) the technical indicators have to move to the upper level and move side way at the top. However, if the indicators fail to reach the top and start to turn down again and if they remain at the bottom and move side way, then the pessimistic Big C scenario is taking place. To be confirmed

An optimistic wave count is as shown above where Dow is in its last journey of its wave (IV).

If Dow has no danger of the big 'C', Latitude Tree Holdings Bhd. can be a stock to watch. It specialises in the manufacturing and sale of wooden household furniture. 99% of its products are exported to US, Japan, Canada, Europe, Australia, Middle East, South Africa....... 90% of its raw materials are rubber woods. Since its announcement of its First Quarter Result of 17.2 sen per share in November due purely to an increase in both revenue and profit margin and contributions from its two factories in Vietnam (there was no extraordinary item or one-off profit), its stock price has moved from Rm 1.10 to last Friday closing of Rm 2.27. One of its possible wave count is as shown below. It is possible that Rm 2.10 is the sub-wave (vi) and its sub-wave (vii) has just started.

Its quarterly earnings and revenues since 2007 is as shown below.

Latitude is about to report its second quarter ending December 2009's result before end of February, if it can get an earning of 17 sen and above for its second quarter, it may be possible to get an overall 60 sen to 70 sen per share for the whole year, under such a strong earning per share, its stock price should move to Rm 4 to Rm 5 level.

This is chan bobo with its Chinese New year look.