Dow - Critical Option

After 2 hours of trading, Dow dropped 21 points (-0.16%) to 13,253. This can be a minor pullback but any turning point at the completion of 5 waves can be the end of an uptrend.

If Dow continues to inch up gradually with backing from the bankers and the government, South East Asian bourses including Bursa Malaysia should be able to hold, at least they won't plunge. So nothing to worry.

However if Dow stop to move higher for some reasons in the next few sessions and if it drops below 12878 level, watch out for the following 'critical option'.

This can be the starting of wave iii of major wave 2.

The worst case scenario for major wave 2 is a 100% retracement to March 2009's low of 6547 level.

The above wave count is based on my hypothesis that March 2009's low is the end of mega wave VI, Dow has completed major wave 1 of VII and is currently forming major wave 2 of VII.

I will be quite busy in the next 4 weeks, so no more writing from me during this period. Take care, my friends.

Schiltach, Germany

Gengebach, Germany

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U.S. Drought

 Indiana Corn Field, July. Courtesy of usvoternews.com

Information from droughtmonitor.unl.edu

  

There are some improvement in weather, some rainfall in certain area, temperature has dropped but the overall situation is still bad.

"As of last week, 87% of the U.S. corn crop, 85% of soybeans, 63% of hay, and 72% of cattle areas were experiencing drought".

Click 'Drought Monitor' for reports.

Technically there is one more surge to 1900 level to complete the sub-wave v of wave 5.

The price of Crude Palm Oil (CPO) so far does not follow the soybeans price movement. Since early June, the soybeans has moved from $1,250/bu. to the current level of above $1,600/bu., whereas the CPO price has moved from above Rm3,000/ton to the current level of around Rm2,750/ton during the same period. The earning of plantation stocks of Bursa Malaysia will remain flat at best.




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Selamat Hari Raya

To all my Muslim friends

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Uncle Sam

America has become a place where those who take spins in the banking/political revolving door run the show with only their interests in mind.
 
Click "Time to wake up" for an interesting article by Nick Hodge.

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Dow - the wedge

In another slow day with low trading volume, Dow gained 85 points (0.65%) to close at 13250 level.

Can it break out from the wedge? It needs to cross the 13350 level. Dow needs that to continue with its short to medium term run. Once the wedge is broken the 'high frequency traders' may initiate a run-up.

I remain bearish for its longer term outlook. I continue on my lookout for any cracking sign.

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Dow oh Dow

If I believe that the governments and bankers will continue to support the market and the Federal Reserve and ECB will continue to print money whenever necessary, Dow will continue to move up in the short and medium term. Under this scenario, Dow is likely to continue with its wave (v) formation. It is possible that it is forming its mini wave iv of sub-wave 3 of wave (v) as shown below.

However, at this stage I am unable to rule out technically my previous pessimistic options for Dow.
Option 1 is the more pessimistic scenario. Assuming a major wave 1 formation from March 2009's low of 6547 to May 2012's high of 13279 (+102%) has been completed. Dow is forming its major wave 2 that has a possible low of 6547 for a 100% retracement.

Under Option 2 scenario Dow is forming sub-wave c of wave vi with a possible low of around 12,000.
  

Take it easy

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Stop 114A

14 August 2012 : 

Malaysia Internet Blackout Day

No more 'innocent until proven guilty'.

Under Evidence Act Section 114A 

it is

Click 'Stop 114A' for details.




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Greece - is the worst over ?

Can the low of 476 in June be the bottom for the Greek market after its has dropped 91% ? And the major wave C has completed 5 waves as shown. It is possible that the market has already factored in the worst possible scenario for Greece.

However if the major wave C has 9 waves, then the index may drop another 50% or more from the current level.

Dow

In the last 4 trading sessions Dow was able to stay on top of the upper resistance line but was not able to pull away. The volume was simply not there. Wave iii of 3 has to be dynamic with high volume.

The low volume indicates that there is no mass participation. It is possible that the market is being artificially supported by you know who. 


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Syabas - Pandelela

Malaysia's first woman to win an Olympics medal

Pandelela Rinong, 19, from Sarawak won a bronze medal from the women's 10m Platform Diving event of the 2012 London Olympics.

Under the Youth and Sports Ministry's incentive scheme, the bronze medal will bring her Rm150,000.00.

 

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Bursa Malaysia - Dutaland

I started to watch Dutaland's movement closely since mid-July when its volume started to pickup accompanied by a breakout in its OBV.

It is possible that June's low is the end of its long consolidation since mid 2009. With that conclusion, I have started to accumulate Dutaland since mid-July, purely based on technical reading. 

Assuming March 2009's low is the bottom, a possible wave count for Dutaland is as shown.

Assuming the wave count is correct, Dutaland is currently forming its major wave 3. It has to break the upper trend line at around 65 sen.



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Dow failed to break

Dow failed to break its upper resistance on Monday. Volume remained low. It is possible that Dow is taking a breather before its next move. A iii of 3 breakout should be a convincing breakout with high volume.



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Dow - Latest Scenario

On Friday, Dow managed to recoup all its previous three days of losses to close at 13,096 level.

However, it was not able to break its upper trend line. If Dow follows the above wave count, it should be able to break out of the uptrend channel as well as its May's high of 13,279.

Short-term bullish, another 7% gain at best.

Following this possible wave count, 14,000 is a likely location to end the major wave 1. For major wave 2, the worst case scenario is a 100% retracement to the 6,547 level. This can be triggered by events in Europe coupled with recession in China.

Long-term bearish, a possible 53% loss.

To tie in with the latest wave count, the long-term wave count since 1900 possibly takes the form shown above. After the March 2000 dot-com bubble's peak when mega wave V ended, Dow has formed an expanding triangle a-b-c corrective mega wave VI, that ended on March 2009 at 6,547 level.

The following is an interesting video

"Do we really need to audit the Federal Reserve?"



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