Ron95 - Black box operation

Until end of June the up and down of the price of Ron95 can be accurately predicted using the weekly closing price of WTI weekly candlestick.

But in July the weekly closing price could no longer be used but the weekly average price still could provide some indication to the weekly price of Ron95 until it reached Rm2.12 on the first week of August. In the following two weeks in August, both the weekly closing prices and the weekly average prices were dropping but the price of Ron95 moved higher and stayed there despite the fact that WTI had dropped from above US$50 a barrel to below US$47 a barrel. It really puzzled me.

Now looking at the previous week candlestick, if we talk about the closing price, it has dropped from US$48.51 to US$47.87. But if we talked about the weekly average price, it moved from US$47.81 to US$47.89, about unchanged. Let's wait for this Wednesday's announcement and try to guess what is going on inside the black box.

Click 'ECRL - Milestone or tombstone?' for an interesting article by Dennis Ignatius.

The Cost

Chinese railway projects in Africa, for example,

1. The 752 km Addis Ababa – Djibouti rail link which was inaugurated in 2016 cost RM15 billion.  2. The 782 km Port Sudan – Khartoum railway cost RM6.4 billion.
3. The 470 km Mombasa – Nairobi railway cost RM17.18 billion.
4. The now abandoned 462 km high-speed railway project in Venezuela cost RM32 billion.

The 668 km ECRL, on the other hand, will cost a whopping RM55 billion and that does not include land acquisition costs and the inevitable cost overruns.

Projected Freight Capacity

The government is projecting the demand for freight capacity along the east coast corridor will rise to 53 million metric tons by 2030. How realistic is this given that the entire KTMB network today carries no more than 6.5 million metric tons annually?

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Weekly Update

Dow (21,813)

My reading for Dow remained the same as what I have mentioned last week. Dow has either completed its major wave 7 and is forming its major wave 8.

 

Unless sub-wave v has nine mini waves,

Or wave (v) has nine sub-waves.

FBMKLCI (1,769)

KLCI continued with its wave C formation.

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Insas Bhd (Rm 1.03) - By wltan22

An analysis on Insas by wltan22.

Based on his calculation, Insas's cash per share is Rm 1.91 and NTA is Rm 3.23 a share.

Click 'Insas-wltan22' for the article.

For Insas's corporate structure click 'Insas Structure' to view.

My long-term wave count for Insas is as shown below.

Currently Insas is forming the wave (v) of its major wave 3.

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Top Ten Oversold Stocks by Calvin Tan

1) WTK (82 sen) Intrinsic Value Rm2.80. Target Price Rm1.60 (+95%)


2) BJ CORP (32 Sen) Intrinsic Value Rm5.00. Target Price Rm2.50 (+681%)


3) MRCB (Rm1.19) Intrinsic Value Rm5.00. Target price: Rm2.80 (+135%)

4) BONIA (55.5 sen) Intrinsic Value Rm1.50. Target Price : Rm1.20 (+116%)

5) MEDIA PRIMA (75 Sen) Intrinsic Value Rm2.00. Target Price: Rm1.50 (+100%)

6) CBIP (Rm1.98) Intrinsic Value Rm6.00. Target Price: Rm4.00 (+102%)

7) MUI BHD (16.5 sen) Intrinsic Value Rm1.50. Taget Price is 80 Sen (+384%)


8) PBA (Rm1.26) Intrinsic Value Rm3.00. Target Price: Rm2.00 (+58%)

9) OPCOM (57.5 Sen) Intrinsic Value Rm1.50. Target Price: Rm1.20 (+108%)

10) EIG (Esthetic International) (90 Sen) Intrinsic Value Rm3.00. Target Price Rm2.00 (+1.22%)


Click 'Top Ten Oversol Stocks' for the article.

Out of the ten, BJ Corp and MUI Bhd are my favorite stocks and are also my frustrated stocks. CBIP is a solid stock with good earning.

Dow - Forming major wave 8?

Dow (21,674)

Possible worst scenario for Dow is as shown below, Dow has completed its major wave 7 and is heading for a 15% drop to complete its major wave 8.

A not that bad possible scenario is a 4.5% sub-wave vi correction.

And if Dow can start to move higher next week and can start to set new record highs on its way, very likely sub-wave v has 9 mini waves .

FBMKLCI (1,776)

KLCI is likely to move lower next week to form the mini wave 3 of its sub-wave iii.

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.995)

Insas may have started to form the wave (v) of its major wave 3.

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.215)

PWorth may have completed its wave (iv) and has started to form its wave (v).

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Weekly Update

Dow (21,858)

My guess is Dow has completed its major wave 7 and has started its major wave 8 pullback. The magnitude of the drop is estimated to be 15%.

Under this scenario, Dow is expected to move all the way to below 20,000.

However if Dow can move higher next week and can continue to move higher and set more new record highs,sub-wave v will be extended as shown below. But all we need to rule out this option is to have another 200 points drop to below last Thursday's closing level.

Another possibility that can prolong the current up-trend is for wave (v) to have 9 sub-waves as shown below. That means the current correction is the sub-wave vi. But the moment Dow dropped below 21,200 level, this option can be ruled out and Dow will be moving to below 20,000.

FBMKLCI (1,766)

KLCI drop another 10 points last Friday. Unless it can have a strong rebound next week and can move above its previous high, KLCI will continue to form its sub-wave iii and heading for 15% pullback to complete the wave C of (6).

 

ATTA Global Group Bhd (Rm 1.02)

At best ATTA can have a wave B rebound to form a 'head and shoulder' pattern.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm 0.78)

EG's wave C of 4 has formed 7 waves. It may proceed to form 9 waves to complete the wave 4.

Gadang Holdings Bhd (Rm 1.23)

Gadang is forming its major wave 4.

Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm 2.35)

Inari has completed its major wave 7 and is currently forming its major wave 8.

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.955)

Insas is about to complete its wave c of (iv).

Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.20)

PWorth is about to complete its major wave 4 unless the 2016 October's low is not the bottom then PWorth may drop all the way to the bottom to set a lower low.

RCE Capital Bhd (Rm 1.64)

RCECap is forming its major wave 8.

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FBMKLCI - Very likely sub-wave ii has ended

FBMKLCI (1,777)

If KLCI continues to move lower in the next few days, it is possible that sub-wave ii of C has ended and sub-wave iii has started with its first candlestick today.

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Weekly Update

Dow (22,092)

At this moment, as long as Dow can stay above the upper trend-line, Dow appeared to follow the scenario 2's wave form.

FBMKLCI (1,774)

KLCI continued with its sub-wave ii rebound.

ATTA Global Group Bhd (Rm 1.04)

ATTA is about to start its wave B rebound.

EG Industries Bhd (Rm 0.80)

If the current pullback is not the sub-wave ii with a 100% retracement, I will need to recount the waves for EG.

Insas Bhd (Rm 1.05)

Insas is more likely to continue with its wave c of (iv) formation.

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Dow Closed Above 22,000

Dow (22,016)

Dow closed above 22,000 with a new record high of 22,016 on Wednesday. Is this the second scenario that I have mentioned before, it broke out of the wedge and is forming the small wave iii of the minor wave (iii) of mini wave 3.

But the lack of volume and the lack of an euphoric sentiment in breaking the upper trend-line as well as the 22,000 level  give me the excuse to come out with another possible scenario as shown below.

If Dow cannot pull away from the 22,000 level with more enthusiasm and with much higher volume, it is possible that the breaking of upper trend-line is an overthrow and the run may just end here.

For the Malaysian market click 'Sovereign default' to judge for yourself its impact.

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