Gold - Update 6

Gold price remains in major wave 4 correction.

The current rebound will complete wave b before the next drop to complete the major wave 4. Major wave 5 for Gold may reach US$3,000.00/oz.



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A new option

Dow gained 458 points or 3.6% in three days to close at 13075 on Friday. It was able to break its previous high of 12943 and at the same time it closed higher than its upper trend line.

A new possible option for Dow is as shown below, wave v has yet to be completed.

it is possible that Dow is currently forming the sub-wave (v) of wave v at this moment.

For Dow at its current level, Option 1 and Option 2 that I have mentioned previously still cannot be ruled out especially if Dow started to move lower to below the upper trend line again next week.

 

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All-out support for Dow

Dow rebounded strongly on Thursday, it gained 211 points (+1.67%) to close at 12887.
As long as it cannot break the 12943 level, which is only 56 points away, Option 1 and 2 remain valid.

However if Dow can move higher than 12943 and proceed to break the upper trend line as shown below, it is likely that wave v is being extended into 5 waves, 1/v-2/v-3/v-4/v and 5/v.

Still a long way to go before Dow goes south under this scenario.


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Hehehehehe

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Dow Being Strongly Supported

Dow managed to recoup half of its opening losses to close at 12721 on Monday for only a 0.8% loss and was able to stay above the lower resistance line.

 

Dow was also managed to stay above its previous low of 12573. The intra-day low stopped at 12583. The US market was desperately being supported by those holding a lot of money and don't know what to do with the money. Don't forget that more money can be printed out of thin air under QE3 that has been waiting at the sideline.

The run up since early June may develop into a bullish uptrend a-b-c-d-e corrective wave (ii) as shown below. I have rated the possibility as slim, but if Dow really can hold above the lower trend line and can proceed to break the upper trend line, I will have to reassess Option 1 and 2.

In stock, anything can happen, that is why the market can exist.

Dow at the close of Tuesday trading

Dow closed its Tuesday trading at 12617, down 104 points (-0.82%). It is interesting to note that its intra-day low stopped exactly on the lower trend line and its closing price stayed above its previous low of 12573. Wednesday trading can be interesting.

A big negative factor is the 10-year bond yield which has set a new low at 1.404%. Will Dow move in the same direction?



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23 July - A bad day for stocks

Asian markets closed Monday trading in red, losing about 1.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped the most with 3% or 587 points.

Shanghai SSE Composite set another new low of 2141 at the close. SSEC has been moving in a downtrend channel since August 2008.

 European markets plunged at the opening bell. Loses averaging about 3%. Greek market dropped a staggering 7.1% followed by the Austrian Vienna ATX at 6.23%.

 

The reason, nothing new, it is the same old debt problems with no solution in sight.  The rate for the Spanish Government 10-year note set a new record today at 7.476%. 

Attention has also turned to Greece today. Greek Prime Minister put the country situation similar to that of the 1930's Great Depression. The Athen Index Compos has dropped about 90% since its 2007's peak.

 

After the first 3 hours of trading, Dow dropped 164 points or 1.28% .

The journey to the south continues.




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The next downtrend ?

Wave of Clark Little

Dow dropped 120 points (-0.93%) on Friday.
Can this be the starting of the next downtrend ? Possibility is great.
For both 'Option 1' and 'Option 2', the last sub-wave ii rebounce was a 100% retracement to the 12,943 level.

For Option 1, once the index punches through the lower resistance line and goes below its previous low of 12,573 level, the sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of major wave 2 may go down at a faster pace (iii of (iii)). Theoretically major wave 2 can go for a 100% retracement (worst case scenario) and that is 6,547 level, March 2009's low.

For Option 2, a possible wave vi pullback with a simple a-b-c correction. If wave c takes the same magnitude as wave a, Dow can go as low as 11,765 level.


Lighter Mood

A man was granted two wishes by God.

He asked for the best drink & the best woman ever.

Next moment he got mineral water & Mother Teresa

There are 3 kinds of men in this world.

Some remain single and make wonders happen.

Some have girlfriends and see wonders happen.

The rest get married and wonder what happened !

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I love nectarines

To get a perfectly ripened good quality nectarine is very difficult in KL, even if you're willing to pay. If you can get one perfectly ripened nectarine, wow, you'll be addicted to it, take my worlds. But I am sure you have to pay between Rm7 to Rm10 for just one medium size fruit. Those 3 fruits for Rm10 nectarines, don't buy, you will get very disappointed when you eat.

Nectarine season has started in UK, you can get as cheap as 10 nectarines for GBP1 for normal quality fruits. For good quality perfectly ripened fruits, you may have to pay GBP1 for 2 fruits. And how good are they ?

From my daughter :

" ....... I washed a yellow flesh one and sank my teeth 

into the nectarine.  Juice  came out all over my mouth. 

And it was so sweet and soft and fragrant.  My 

immediate thought was - wow this must be the sensation 

that inspired the author of the Monkey God to talk 

about the Heavenly Peach. ....."

Development sequence of nectarines from buds formation in early winter to fruits ripening in mid-summer.

Courtesy of Wikipedia

I just hope I still can get first class quality nectarines when I go to UK next month.

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Robbery at Shopping Malls

"The crime rate in Malaysia is still low compared to other countries and the statistics were based on overall crime cases as determined by the Global Peace Index (GPI)", said IGP Tan Sri Ismail Omar.

To know what is GPI, click 'Hahahaha'.

In the 10.05pm incident on 16th July, at 1-Utama old-wing LG basement car-park, a businessman and his wife were attacked by a man who was believed to have tried to snatch the businessman's bag.

Click '1-Utama Robbery' for story.

Standard respond from the police

Before this incident, there was this kidnapping at The Curve car park on 30th May

Click 'Narrow Escape' for details.

One day later on 31st May, The Curve again.

At Mid-Valley car park on 23rd June

Nooralida M. Noor was getting into her car at a shopping centre at around 2.50pm on Tuesday when a man forcibly entered her car and slashed her left arm and neck.

Almost all the housing areas in Petaling Jaya and Subang Jaya have to engage private 'gated and guarded' services to do what the police has failed to do.

When the police refused to admit that the crime rate is high and get very angry when people call JB a cowboy town, crime rate can only get higher with time. Very soon we will need to have bodyguards when we go out at night.

 

They do have jobs to do

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Dow jumped 204 points (1.6%) on Monday. For the two options that I have mentioned in my previous post to remain valid, in its current rebound Dow should not exceed its previous high of 12,943. In fact its next drop should drop below its Friday low of 12,573.

Under Option 1, wave (i) dropped 1178 points. If wave (iii) has the same magnitude as wave (i), the target of wave (iii) is 11,765. However if its magnitude is 1.618 times of wave (i), it can drop as low as 11,037 for a close to 2000 point drop.

Under Option 2, for a simple a-b-c correction, wave c is likely to have the same magnitude as wave a, that will take wave c to around 11,765 level.

However, if Monday's rebound continues for a few more days and can go higher than the 12,943 level, I will have to review Option 1 & 2 and to look for other likely options.

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