What is the probability of a 'Double Dips'

If the 89% drop during the Great Depression is Mega Wave (II), in the last 70 over years, Dow has been forming its Mega Wave (III). By July 1974, Dow has completed its major wave 4 of its Mega Wave (III) at around 607. Since then, Dow has its major wave 5 run from 607 to 14,164 by October 2007. The question here is, "is 14,164 the end of the major wave 5?"


Strictly on chart reading, the moment Dow hit 6,457 in March 2009, which is about 700 points below wave iv, it has ruled out the possibility of a wave vi, as wave vi cannot be lower than wave iv. Therefore, wave v at 14,164 marked the end of major wave 5.



If major wave 5 has ended, the next question is whether the Mega wave (III) has ended? If the answer is No, than Dow is currently forming the major wave 6. If the answer is Yes, then Mega Wave (IV) has started.


For major wave 6 scenario, March 2009 low of 6,457 is major wave A. The current rebound from 6,457 is major wave B that is about to end. The major wave C will confirm the double dips as shown above. At this moment, Dow is somewhere in sub-wave iii of wave 3 of major wave B. B has only three waves 1-2-3.

After the double dips major wave 6 that can end around 5000 to 6000 level or lower, the next major wave 7 can bring Dow to 20,000 level. I hope I am still around to participate until the end of this wonderful run.


For Mega Wave (IV) scenario, the five waves down from 14,164 to 6,457 is the major wave (1), the rebound until now is the major wave (2) that has three waves. Dow is currently at the sub-wave iii of the major wave (2). The major wave (3) as shown above will bring Dow to a level that is expected to be lower than major wave (1) to form the major wave a of the Mega Wave (IV) that can take the form of either a-b-c as shown below or a-b-c-d-e

the major wave a of the Mega Wave (IV) will complete the double dips scenario. So based on the chart pattern to date, my conclusion is, "Dow will go for a double dips".