Based on data that includes GDP, income, employment, industrial production, wholesale & retail sales figures, etc. etc. NBER considered the data looked strong enough and long enough for them to declare the start of the rising phase of the business cycle is July 2009. This declaration was made on 20 September 2010. So the recession is officially and statistically ended on June 2009. Is Dow going for another record run?
I don't think so, I don't think Dow is in a bull cycle, but I can be wrong too, only time can tell.
At this stage of the market, to me, there is no sign of a bull run. Look at the chart above, Dow has completed its wave 1 & 2 by July 2010 since the 2009 March low of 6,547. Dow is currently in its wave 3 phase. In a bull run, wave 3 has to be more powerful than wave 1 and with a much higher volume than that of wave 1 due to widespread participation. When reaching sub-wave iii of wave 3, the run is usually euphoric and unmistakable. But in the last 3 weeks of the current sub-wave iii of wave 3 run-up, the average volume as shown above, is the lowest since the beginning of the run in March 2009. Only wave 3 of B has a volume that is lower than that of wave 1.
Based on the low volume, another possibility is as shown above, Dow remains in its wave 2. It is about to complete its wave b. After that Dow will move lower with very very low volume to complete its wave c to form the wave 2.Karambunai
Karambunai dropped 5 sens today to closed at 13 sens to rest on top of its neckline. If its sub-wave ii can consolidate around this level holding above the 12.5 sens neckline, the next run up is the sub-wave iii of wave 3 of major wave (III). Sub-wave iii of 3 of (III) is going to be very dynamic with high volume and it should be able to break its higher degree neckline at 26 sen. once the 26 sen neckline is broken, the next minimum price target is around 50 sens. However, if the price goes below the 12.5 sens neckline, it can go all the way back to its 5.5 sen level.
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