Thursday, September 2, 2010

Must be very careful on the last journey


S&P 500 appears to form an inverted head and shoulders pattern. Hopefully volume can exceed 6 billions. I expect wave iii, iv and v of wave (3) to be completed by October. A short and risky journey but can be juicy for the right counters.


Short-term chart looks comfortable.


2-year chart still looks OK, there are at least two months for me to get out for this mega wave 6 scenario.



The very long-term chart from 1930 to 2010 looks extremely bearish. The pattern since 1998 looked like a potential head and shoulders. Confirmation of which can bring Dow to 5000 or below. Is this the reason why the Elliott wave guru, Robert Prechter is convinced that "we have entered a market decline of staggering proportions - perhaps the biggest of the last 300 years". Can read this July 4 article.

To him this is definitely not mega wave 6, this is also not the super wave (III) bull run since 1932 that has ended in October 2007, because all these scenarios are less than 300 years. Be careful.


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