Sunday, May 19, 2019

Weekly Update

Dow (25,764)

Nothing much to talk about Dow as the wave E continues to unfold slowly unless there is a drastic change in its wave-form suggesting the possibility of an alternative wave count.

If I am talking about 21,000 level for its wave E to end, Dow has another 4,764 points or 18.5% to go before completing its major wave 8.

From the 30-minute interval chart, since the starting of May Dow has so far completed its mini wave 1. Very likely Dow has ended its mini wave 2 on last Thursday and mini wave 3 has started. It will be followed by mini wave vi and v and so on.

FBMKLCI (1,605)

KLCI has been continuing with the wave C of its mega wave (6) formation.

From the 5-year chart, a possible support is the 1,532 level as shown.

If we are talking about 1,532 level, there is only another 73 points or 4.5% to go before wave v of C and mega wave (6) will end. Is this possible? Only another 4.5% to go while Dow may drop another 18.5% before ending its wave E and its major wave 8?

I personally think that KLCI is more likely to follow Dow with a similar 18.5% drop. Another possible wave count is to take the December 2018 to February 2019 rebound as a lower degree mini wave 1-2 instead of my earlier count of wave iii-iv.

With this change the the target for mega wave (6) can be the 1,300 level, another 305 points or another 19% to go. This is more inline with the Dow's possible 18.5% drop.


Sunday, May 5, 2019

Dow (26,504) - Wave E started?

It appeared to me that Dow has finally ended its wave D with a failure wave iii based on the 30-minute interval, 2-month chart.

Dow completed its minor wave iii on Monday. It went up on Wednesday morning to complete its minor wave v, mini wave 5, wave iii and wave D before making a U-turn in the afternoon by dropping 259 points from its intra-day high of 26,689 with volume of 303 million for the day. Dow dropped another 122 points on Thursday with 287 million share traded. It rebounded on Friday, gaining 197 points but with a lower volume of 248 million, a typical mini wave 2 rebound's volume. Mini wave 3 volume is expected to shoot up again.

This is my personal interpretation and I can be wrong too. You are advised to read other guru's articles for their view on the markets.

When Dow started to plunge, I believe KLCI will plunge in tandem.


Saturday, April 27, 2019

Dow(26,543) - A disappointing week.

In order for Dow to punch through its ceiling as I have mentioned previously, it has to be dynamic with high daily volume. But Dow's movement was not dynamic at all and the daily volumes were low. I personally feel that the possibility for Dow to punch through the upper trend line is very low.

It is more likely that Dow is forming its wave D that is only 400 points away.

Looking at the 30-minute interval 2-Month chart, Dow can cover its last 400 points in two ways.

It can either has a small drop to complete its mini wave iv before finishing the mini wave v.

Or it can straight away moving higher from its last Friday price to complete its last 400 points to form the mini wave v, the wave iii and the wave D.

But if Dow were to drop below 26,300 level next week, I will need to run for my life. It is a failure iii.

Dow has already completed its wave D with a failure wave iii.

And Dow is heading for its wave E for a 20% pullback.


Tuesday, April 23, 2019

Pinehill Pacific Bhd (Rm 0.445)

Pinepac gained 7 sens (+18%) today with high volume of 5 million shares traded.

In September 2018 after announcing its proposed disposal of 8,999.13 acres of its plantation land in Perak to United Plantation Bhd for Rm413,574,302.49, within two days, its stock price went from 14 sens to an intra-day high of 69 sens before closing at 54 sens.

It went into 5 months of consolidation until end of February 2019 to form its wave ii. It started to form its wave iii in March 2019 and so far it has completed the mini wave 1-2 and minor wave i-ii of its wave iii. Today's surge with high volume is the minor wave iii of its mini wave 3 of its wave iii if Pinepac can continue to move higher from now on.

But if Pinepac is unable to break its wave i's 54 sens high and started to move lower in the next few days, than it is more likely that its wave ii is not yet completed. It is going for a complex abcde-X-abc wave ii.


Sunday, April 21, 2019

Advance Synergy Bhd (Rm 0.135)

I have been monitoring ASB for many many years and was tricked twice, both by the wave Bs that were accompanied by OBV breakouts in 2014 and 2018.

Since October 2008 after hitting its low of 6.5 sens, it moved to a high of 33.5 sens by January 2011, gaining 27 sens or 415% to form its mega wave (1). ASB took 6 years until December 2016 to complete its mega wave (2) at 10 sens. Major wave 1 at 21 sens (+110%) took only 4 months to form followed by another 24 months to complete its major wave 2 at 11 sens.

Since January 2019 ASB has formed five advancing waves followed by a a-b-c corrective wave.  My wave count shows that since ASB's 6.5 sens bottom in October 2008, it has form mega wave (1)-(2), major wave 1-2 and wave (i)-(ii). Its next advancing wave is likely to be the wave (iii) of 3 of (3) if my wave count is correct, then the next advancing wave is expected to be dynamic with very high volume. Now I just keep my fingers crossed.


Saturday, April 20, 2019

Weekly Update on Dow

Dow (26,559)

Dow continued to form its mini wave 3 of iii of D, a pessimistic option.

A more optimistic option for Dow is the possibility of punching through its ceiling. But under this scenario, Dow has to be dynamic with high volume. The price movements during the holiday shortened week were not dynamic but the daily volumes were impressive, the weekly average daily volume was a respectable 312 million exceeding the previous two weeks daily average of 223 million despite of the long weekend. Will the daily volume go above 400 million when Dow moves closer to 27,000 level?


Sunday, April 14, 2019

Watching only Dow

Dow (26,412)

If Dow is forming wave D, it has so far completed its wave i and ii of D. And now it has completed its mini wave 1 and 2 of iii of D.

It has started the mini wave 3 of iii on Friday with an impressive volume of 369 millions which is 65% higher than the last 10 days average of 223 millions.

The volume caught me by surprise as I was expecting the volume to stay low or to shrink as Dow approaching the end of its wave D. The Friday volume not only exceeded the last 10 days average, it also exceeded the January average daily volume of 341 millions when Dow started to form the wave i of D. In February the average daily volume dropped to 265 millions when Dow was on the second half of its wave i.

If last Friday volume of 369 millions is a 'one day affair', that means the daily volume is going to shrink next week and the following weeks, I expect Dow to end its wave D at around 27,000 level and it will be followed by wave E with a 20% or more pullback to 21,000 level unless Dow is going to have a 'failure' E.

But if Dow can maintain its daily average volume at about 400 million as the mini wave 3 of iii progresses, very likely this mini wave 3 is not the mini wave 3 of iii of D but rather it is the mini wave 3 of iii of (i) of its major wave 9. Dow has ended its major wave 8 in December. Dow is on its way to punch through its ceiling of 27,000 with momentum.

I am keeping my fingers crossed.

FBMKLCI (1,630)

If Dow is on its major wave 9 and it is going to punch through its ceiling, it is correct that KLCI is about to complete its mega wave (6). Mega wave (7) will start once wave C of (6) is completed

KLCI started to form its mini wave v last week. It started with a 'doji' on Monday followed by two small drops on Tuesday and Wednesday and a sharp 15 points drop on Thursday. Friday rebound is a technical reaction to Thursday's drop.

I shall keep my eyes on Dow and its volume in the next two weeks.