Monday, October 21, 2019

Malaysian Ringgit - Weak for the next 6 months

USD/MYR (4.1815)

USD/MYR is at the last journey of its mini wave 3 to end its wave (ii).

From the weekly chart, in the next few weeks, USD/MYR is likely to drop to around 4.15 to complete its minor wave iv before moving up to around 4.27 to complete the minor wave v of mini wave 3 of wave (ii).

After that, hopefully by second or third quarter of 2020, USD/MYR can start its wave (iii), which is expected to go below 4.00. Ultimately the wave C of (2) is expected to end below 3.00.

If wave (i) and (ii) took more than 3 years to complete, it is reasonable to assume that wave (iii) and (iv) will take at least 4 years to complete. Wave (v) can be quite unpredictable, it can fall short or it can over-shoot. Allowing 2 years for wave (v), Ringgit is likely to peak in 2026.

Hopefully the bull for the Ringgit can start running by the second half of 2020. Am I too optimistic in view of the pessimistic political scene at this moment?


Saturday, October 19, 2019

Dow - Going South?

Dow (26,770)

Dow dropped 255 points (-0.95%) on Friday. Is this the starting of mini wave 3 of iii of E of its major wave 8?

FBMKLCI (1,571)

KLCI has a small rebound in the last 5 trading days to form the mini wave 4 of v of (iii). The next journey down will be the mini wave 5 of v of (iii).

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.825)

Insas has started to form the mini wave 3 of its sub-wave iii in the last few trading days.

Fintec Global Bhd (Rm 0.045)

Fintec is a technology incubation and investment holding company. It operates in four business segments: technology incubation, biofuel products, information technology and biotechnology products.

Fintec has invested in 6 listed companies: Focus Dynamics Group Bhd 24.51% (500 million shares), Vsolar Group Bhd 15.67% (60 million shares), AT Systematization Bhd 15.06% (70 million shares), Netx Holdings Bhd 11.16% (264 million shares), DGB Asia Bhd 7.37% (55.7 million shares) and Mlab Systems Bhd 11.2% (75 million shares).

At last Friday closing price for these 6 companies, the market price for Fintec's holding of these companies is worth a total of Rm214.90 million. If this figure is divided by Fintec 635 million shares, that is 34 sens per each Fintec share.

For quarter ending 30/6/2019, earning per share is 4 sens ( due to appreciation of investment holdings), net assets is 28 sens, net cash per share is 3.7 sens. Fintec closing price on Friday was 4.5 sens only. The only problem with Fintec is its operating profit was always in the red.

Based on the closing price of its holdings on 30/9/2019, I expect Fintec to announce an earning of around 12 sens a share with net assets at 39 sens a share. Net cash per share is expected to remain at 3.7 sens. Will Fintec's share price remain at 4.5 sens when it announces its next quarterly earning in November?

My reading for Fintec is as shown below, it is about to complete its sub-wave v of (iii). Next rebound will be the wave (iv) of C of (2).     

This is a greatly undervalued stocks with operating profit always in the red. At last Friday closing price of 4.5 sens, if I deduct the 3.7 sens of cash per share, I am paying only 0.8 sens for the rest of its investment holdings that is worth 34 sens a share plus its other businesses and assets.

But there were investors that kept on selling Fintec at 4.5 sens. Why?


Saturday, October 12, 2019

Dow - Still on wave iii of E ?

Dow (26,816)

1 month after my last posting, my reading for Dow remained the same. It is of higher probability that Dow is forming the wave E of its major wave 8 at the moment.

By now, Dow has completed its wave ii but the ii is not high enough to form a perfect 'double-top' reversal pattern. Probability is high that wave iii of E is in progress. The 3-wave up in the last 7 trading days is likely to be the mini wave 1-2 of iii. If Dow starts to move lower next week, very likely mini wave 2 has ended and the mini wave 3 of iii has started.

However, if Dow can continue to move higher from its current level and can punch through its ceiling and continue to pull away, then I have no choice but to accept a scenario that I classified as unlikely that Dow is forming its major wave 9 since January 2019.

I considered the second scenario as unlikely because wave C has only 3 waves. To me, Dow is forming a perfect 3-3-3-3-3 expanding triangles.

FBMKLCI (1,556)

KLCI continues with its wave (iii) of C formation.

In the last one month CI has been forming the mini wave 3 of v of (iii). Next will be the mini wave 4 rebound before the mini wave 5's drop.

Insas Bhd (Rm 0.81)

Very likely Insas is on its major wave 3

It has completed its major wave 2 in January 2019. Since then It has formed its wave (i)-(ii) and sub-wave i-ii and mini wave 1-2.

Mini wave 2 is a 3-3-5 a-b-c. Hopefully Insas can start to form its mini wave 3 that can end above Rm0.90.


Saturday, September 14, 2019

Dow (27,219) - Another step closer to unveil its major direction.

Dow continued to move higher over the week and added another 422 points (+1.57%) within the last 5 trading days.

My reading for Dow remained the same as what I have written in the previous week.

Dow is either on its wave ii of E in its 3-3-3-3-3, A-B-C-D-E major wave 8 formation with another 130 points to go to form a double-top reversal pattern.

OR Dow has already completed its major wave 8 in December 2018 and it has been forming its major wave 9 since January 2019. To confirm this option, Dow will need to punch through the upper trend line and continue to pull away from the upper trend line. Then it is on its mini wave 3 of its wave iii of its major wave 9. As I have questioned before, why there are only 3 sub-waves instead of 5 for wave C.

But if Dow can really punch through its ceiling and heading for 30,000 and above, I have no choice but to accept that the wave C is a failure wave with wave iv and v missing.


Monday, September 9, 2019

Insas - Slowly unfold

Insas (Rm0.835)

Insas added 5 sens last Friday with a moderate volume of 1.4 million shares traded. Very slowly it has reached the sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of its major wave 3. In theory it should move with a faster pace and with a higher volume until end of 2020.


Sunday, September 8, 2019

Dow - Can't rule out the option 2

Dow (26,797)

The option 1 for Dow is still the 3-3-3-3-3, A-B-C-D-E major wave 8 formation that I have been mentioning for quite a while.

But when Dow refused to move lower in the last two weeks along my projected path, I began to question my much earlier decision to rule out the second option that major wave 8 is a simple A-B-C and it has already ended in December 2018 and since early 2019 the major wave 9 has already started.

The only 'BUT' is - if it is indeed a simple A-B-C major wave 8, it must have 5 sub-waves for its wave C for a 3-3-5 formation, 'BUT' the wave C has only 3 sub-waves i-ii-iii.

However, whether I like it or not, if Dow can continue to move higher and can punch through its upper trend line and can go beyond 28,000, Dow is for sure, forming its major wave 9 that may end before end of 2020 or during first quarter of 2021.

So, the main question is whether Dow can punch through its upper trend line. Option 1 or option 2?


Saturday, August 31, 2019

Merdeka - Feeling sad

After 21 years of writing ideas, criticisms and advice for Malaysians, Malays and those in power in academic, religious and political institutions, I have no more to give. Malaysia is on a certain road of destruction with the Malay Muslims driving it to the ground.

To read more, click 'A Meaningless Merdeka' by Prof. Dr. Mohd Tajuddin Mohd Rasdi.