Thursday, December 14, 2017

Dow and FBMKLCI

Dow (24,585)

Dow continues to move higher in the last few days with new record highs and has eliminated the possibility that sub-wave v has ended as the mini wave 9 has five minor waves.


FBMKLCI (1,759)

Within 3 trading sessions KLCI has gained 40 points and has surpassed my projected target of 1,750 for sub-wave ii.


With this sharp magnitude it appeared to me that the current rebound is more likely to be a wave (iv) of C as shown below and I expect KLCI to move lower and lower again.


Where wave C is going to have 9 waves for a 15% pullback to complete the mega wave (6).




But if KLCI can continue to move higher and higher in the next few weeks, it is possible that the wave B of (6) has not been completed yet and wave C with 15% pullback has not yet started.


The June high of 1,792 is not the end of major wave 3 of B, it is the wave (i) of 3 of B.


The low of 1,713 on 4th December is the wave (ii) of 3 of B.



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Monday, December 11, 2017

Malayan United Industries Bhd (Rm 0.22)

Upon the announcement by Tan Sri Khoo Kay Peng that His son Andrew Khoo will be taking over from him as the new CEO of Mui effective 1st January 2018, Mui was actively traded today with volume of about 32 millions. Its share price went to a high of 23.5 sens before settled at 22 sens at the close for a 1 sen gain.


I still like to maintain my existing wave count for Mui despite of the announcement. The current rebound is the wave ii of its wave C.


Unless I am wrong, I expect Mui to continue to move lower in the next 2 to 3 months to complete the wave C of its major wave 2.



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Sunday, December 10, 2017

Dow - Possible turning point

Dow (24,329)

Another new closing record high for Dow on Friday. Looking at Dow's hourly chart, Dow opened with a gap on Monday morning, very likely, that is an exhaust gap.


There is a possibility that Dow might have ended its major wave and major wave 8 correction might have started. I expect Dow to pullback to 20,400 level for a 16.7% correction.


But if the major wave 7 has 9 waves, then the current correction could be a 5% sub-wave vi pullback to 23,270 level. After sub-wave vi, we still have sub-waves vii, viii and ix in front.


However if Dow continues to move higher to welcome 2018, then whether one likes it or not, Dow will continue with its bullish run as shown below. The next up is the minor minor wave iii of minor wave (iii).


FBMKLCI (1,721)

I expect KLCI to rebound to around 1,750 level to form its sub-wave ii of C. Be careful of the next drop, it can be quite damaging as it is the sub-wave iii of wave (iii) of C.


Berjaya Corporation Bhd. (Rm 0.355)

BJCorp has a bullish chart. It has completed its 7 long years of downtrend with a price-OBV divergence at the end of 2016. In November there was a bullish OBV short-term breakout before a price breakout. The current wave c of (ii) correction could be the last time BJCorp  goes to retest its 32 sens level.


Malayan United Industries Bhd (Rm 0.21)

Same as BJCorp, Mui is also forming the wave C of its major wave 2. It is likely to go to 15 sens or below.


Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm 3.22)

Inari has started to form the sub-wave ix of its wave (vii).


Insas Bhd (Rm 0.92)

If Insas can move higher from its current level, then we have a failure sub-wave v to complete the wave c of its wave (iv).


It is also possible that Insas may continue to go lower to have a 5-wave sub-wave v to complete the wave of (iv).



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Sunday, December 3, 2017

Dow - 3 possibilities

Dow (24,231)

Has Dow reached its turning point? Is the historical high of 24,272 on Thursday the end of its major wave 7? Is Dow heading for a 15% pullback?


This is the most bearish outcome - a major wave 8 correction.

Even if Dow started to drop in the next two weeks, a less bearish outcome is a sub-wave vi correction.


A bullish outcome is when Dow continues to move higher in the next two weeks for more record breaking.


The early November high and the subsequent correction is not the mini wave 7 and 8 but is a lower degree minor wave (i) and (ii). Sub-wave v has not yet ended .

FBMKLCI (1,717)

KLCI continued with its wave C correction. I am expecting a sub-wave ii rebound.



USD/MYR (Rm4.09 to 1USD)

The USD/MYR rate reached 4.09 on Friday. Is the wave C of (2) in progress? Possibility is there.


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Wednesday, November 29, 2017

EG Industries Bhd (Rm 0.70)

EG reported an improved earning of 3.61 sens a share for its latest quarter. Its previous quarter earning was only 1.4 sens a share. Its share price opened with a gap up and closed the day gaining three sens. The gap at the bottom is usually being considered as a run away gap. Very likely EG is on the wave (iii) of its mega wave 5. Its wave (ii) has ended with a 100% retracement.




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Tuesday, November 28, 2017

Inari and Insas

Inari Amertron Bhd (Rm 3.30)

Inari moved up strongly today with high volume of 18.7 million shares. It gained 17 sens (+5.4%) to close at Rm 3.30. It is on its way to complete its wave (vii).



Insas Bhd (Rm 0.975)

Insas with 402 million (19.91%) Inari shares in hand was actively traded today with 6.79 million shares changed hand but gained only 1.5 sens.


Technically Insas has one more down, the sub wave v to complete the wave c of wave (iv) before it can have its wave (v) run-up unless due to the upwards momentum this last wave is missing. Under this 'one wave missing' scenario Insas will continue to move higher tomorrow to form its wave (v). Once it crosses the Rm 1.00 level, it can be taken that sub-wave v is missing and Insas is already on its wave (v).


402 million Inari shares at Rm 3.30 is Rm 1.3266 billion. If this is divided by Insas's  632 million shares, it is Rm 2.10 for each Insas share.

Besides Inari, Insas has many other businesses.


From Insas latest quarterly report, its cash and deposits is Rm 606 million. Borrowing is Rm 290 million. Net cash is Rm 316 million, that is another 50 sens a share. Looking at the following price-comparison chart I cannot understand why should there be a price divergence between Inari and Insas starting July 2017.


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Sunday, November 26, 2017

Weekly Update

Dow (23,557)

Dow is about to complete its sub-wave v and wave (v). This going to be the end of its major wave if  wave (v) has only five sub-waves and major wave 7 has only five wave.


If wave (v) has more than five sub-waves then Dow may continue to zig-zag higher  to form its sub-wave vi, vii, viii and ix. The 15% correction will have to wait.


FBMKLCI (1,717)

KLCI continues with its 15% correction that is going to drag until mid 2018 or beyond.


Insas Bhd (Rm 0.94)

For its quarter ending 30 September, Insas reported an earning of 5.95 sens a share and net assets of Rm 2.41 per share versus Inari's earning of 3.41 sens a share and net assets of  Rm 0.45. Insas declared a dividend of only 1 sen versus Inari's 2.3 sens.

Looking at the above data, I don't understand why the share price of Inari can be at Rm 3.02 whereas Insas can lag so far behind at Rm 0.94.

From the chart, Insas has one more drop to go to complete its wave (iv).


The next uptrend will be the wave (v) to complete its major wave 3 if major wave 3 has only five waves.


Priceworth International Bhd (Rm 0.245)

Pworth has completed the wave a of its sub-wave ii.  It may continue to move higher to complete its wave b of ii.




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