Saturday, September 3, 2011

Will History Repeat ?


Soybean closed at $1445 on Friday, remained on top of the breakout price of $1410. I will have to monitor closely to see whether it can break the $1500 level.

If Soybean can break the $1500 level, it is likely that the crude palm oil price (CPO) will proceed to break the Rm 3801 level as shown below to complete its wave 5



However if the soybean price turned south and move below the $1410 level, CPO price will form a major A-B-C waves as shown below.


Similarly the Bursa Malaysia Plantation Index can either move higher to complete its sub-wave v of wave 5, if CPO price moves higher as shown below.



The Plantation index can also move lower as shown below if CPO failed to move higher.


Dow dropped 253 points (2.2%) on Friday, it has completed its sub-wave iv and has started its sub-wave v, heading for 10500 level to complete its wave 1 of major wave C before end of September as shown below. (note that wave 1 takes about 4 months to complete)


It is possible that both the Soybean and Crude Palm Oil prices can have a strong run-up to complete their respective fifth wave during the Dow's wave 2 rebound that can easily last two to three months. It is possible that the Bursa Malaysia Plantation Index can have its last surged to 9500 level, in tandem with CPO and Soybean.

But ultimately, all will plunge together with Dow when Dow started its wave 3 like the way they dived in 2008.






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