This is going to be a dramatic week for Europe following the abrupt withdrawal of 'Troika', the tripartite financial rescue team, from Athens on Friday. The Italian Treasury must redeem Euro 14.6 billion of debts this week and another Euro 64 billions of debts by the end of September.
Nouriel Roubini," .... most advanced economies are on the brink of a double-dip recession. .....".
Click "Is Capitalism Doomed ?" for his article published on 15th August 2011.
At this moment, several stock indices have already given back more than 50% of their gain since the 2009 bottom.
Within 4 months, German DAX has given back more than 50% of the gain that it has made over a period of 24 months.
Talking about double-dip recession, I think the French CAC 40 is almost there, all it needs is another 14% drop. In the last two days, CAC 40 has dropped about 5.9%
Besides DAX and CAC 40, there are many other indices have dropped below the half-way mark.
In Asia, so far there are only two indices, the Tokyo Nikkei 225 and the Shanghai SSEC, have dropped below the 50% level as shown. Other Asian indices are fast approaching the 50% line.
Looking at the above charts, I choose to believe that the double-dip is in the making rather than questioning the possibility of a double-dip.
What about commodity?
For Soybean, there was a price breakout last week, as long as the price can hold above the 1410 level, the possibility of a last surge same as that in early 2008 is still there. Must monitor closely before making any conclusion.
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