Dow closed at 9864 on Friday, a new closing height since March's low. The previous closing height was 9829 on September 22. The volume was a great disappointment at 4.3 billions, well below its last 10-day average of 5.7 billions. In the last few sessions, while the prices were trending upwards, the volumes were shrinking, I don't think Dow has the momentum to break the upper trend line, it is likely that the current run-up is the wave 5 of the major wave (III) as shown above. Dow may or may not reach the upper trend line. Be careful.
As shown by the chart below, it is possible that Dow is at sub-wave iii of wave 5. First 3 days of next week may see the completion of sub-waves iii and iv.
Wave 5 sometimes can be quite uncertain. It may have its sub-wave v missing or it may have its wave being extended to sub-wave vi, vii, viii and ix. Whatever it may be, Dow is at its last journey of its wave 5 unless Dow can turn its current run-up into a dynamic surge with high volume of 7 to 8 billion and break its upper trend line in the coming week, then I will have to recount the wave. The question is how likely is this possibility.
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