Thursday, October 22, 2009

Dow - Is March 2009's low the end of the bear ?


If March's low is the end of the 2007/2008 bear market, then Dow will have 5 waves as shown below. The existing major wave (IV) will drop to its short term support line.
If March's low is not the end of the bear market, then it is possible that the major wave B of the bear market rebound has ended as shown below. This is very pessimistic as the next wave is the major wave C that can bring Dow to 5000 for another 50% drop.

Many economist believed that Case B is of slim possibility. At this moment it looks unlikely but I would not like to rule out this possibility. A safer way is to hold cash until the picture is clearer.

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