Dow - Is this the starting of a higher degree consolidation?

Friday's drop might not be big for Dow, 67 points only, but could it be the first candlestick in the down trend direction? Possible if Dow continues to travel south.

If wave 5 of major wave (III) has ended, the next wave can be major (IV) that can go as low as 9400 as shown above. Another possible scenario is as shown below where the major wave (III) is the end of the bear market rebound for the current US financial meltdown. In this case the next wave is the major wave 'C' that can go to 6000.

A crucial question is whether wave 5 of major wave (III) has ended. The following 3-month charts show 3 possibilities for wave 5 of major wave (III)

If Dow continues to drop, then wave 5 that has completed its 5 sub-waves i-ii-iii-iv-v has ended, its major corrective wave(IV) is likely to reach 9400.

The above chart shows that Dow instead of going south, it continues to move up-trend to complete its extended sub-waves of vi-vii-viii-ix for wave 5 before turning south.

If Dow is able to hold above the shorter term support as shown above, the major wave (III) will have 9 waves instead of 5.

Even though Dow may have several possibilities at this juncture as what has been discussed so far, the fact remains the same that the risk at this level is high and is getting higher with each passing session unless Dow can punch through the upper trend line with high volume and can continue to run north together with bond yield, then it is entirely a different story and is a different ball game.