Not The End Yet

A Bear that you don't have to worry, there is always a bull hiding behind

In my previous post on 5th March, I have made the following wave count:

Yesterday Dow rebounded 379 points, that marked the end of mini wave 9 and thus completed sub sub wave (iii). The next 3 to 5 days will see the completion of sub sub wave (iv) as shown below.

Over the long weekend while updating the chart for Nasdaq, I noticed that the wave count for the wave 5 of Nasdaq is slightly different from that of Dow. As shown below, Wave 5 for Nasdaq has only sub wave i and sub wave ii, there is no sub sub wave (i) and (ii)

I believe the wave counts for both Nasdaq and Dow must be the same as they always move in the same direction with more or less the same magnitude. If I adjust wave 5 of Dow to tie in with Nasdaq, The wave count for Dow is as shown below.

In a 6 months chart, the revised count for Wave 5 is as shown below despite the fact that sub wave ii consists of double 3-waves. In the past whenever there was a discrepancy between the "form" and the "minor wave count", the "form" always superceeded the "minor count". The "right look" is important.

If this is the right count, then the Dow is currently in sub wave iv that can last for 4 to 6 days, most likely the form is "sharp and short" since sub wave ii is "shallow and long". After the completion of iv, another 5 to 7 days of downward movement of sub wave v should complete Wave 5 before end of this month, provided there is no extension of wave. Hopefully with that the Dow can finally complete its Major Wave A that started in October 2007, a duration of 17 months and with a drop exceeding 50%. If Major Wave B rebound can last for 8 months for a gain of 40% to 50%, that will bring Dow to above 9000. Wave C can take another 15 months with another 50% drop, hopefully Dow can hold above 4500. The whole bear phase started by the financial crisis in US will by then covers a period of 40 months. The Great Depression of 1929 lasted 34 months from September 1929 to June 1932.