It is not sub-wave iv of wave 5

Not your time yet.



In my last Tuesday (24 March) post, I talked about 3 possibilities for Dow. Last 4 sessions confirmed that Wave 5 is not a simple 5 waves, the supposed to be sub-wave iv rebound has gone too high and has dragged for too long. From wave 4 down, Dow has only 3 waves i-ii-iii as shown, a bullish view is to take iii as the end of the down trend since October 2007 and that the last two weeks rebound is the begining of major wave B rebound that can last until end of 2009. I am rather reluctant to accept iii as the end of wave 5 because sub-wave iv and v are missing, I am more inclined to go for the probability that wave 5 take the form of a diagonal triangles.

From wave 4 downwards, the subsequent i-ii-iii formed the first wave of 5, Dow is currently in the wave 2 of 5 as shown .

Refer to the sketch below, Dow is in the wave 2 of (5). It will zig-zag downward to complete 3,4 and 5 of (5).

The wave 3-4-5 shown above were not drawn based on calculated projection. The magnitude should be smaller and duration shorter. Dow in the next few days is expected to move up to complete the 2 and then to come down to form the 3. However if Dow moves up too high for too long, I will have no choice but to accept that there are some missing waves and Major Wave B rebound has started.