Thursday, March 26, 2009

Have a look at major world bourses

I seldom write on other bourses because all of them, for most of the time, look to Dow for direction. When Dow is in a major trend, all the rest of the world will move in the same direction and way with more or less the same pattern with minor variations. Just look at all the following charts, at first glance, one may think that they are the same chart. They all peaked in October 2007 except Japan Nikkei 225 and France CAC 40 both have their peaks in July 2007. KLSE is the odd one, it peaked in January 2008 when the rest of the world have moved lower. However, minor variations started to appear in the first few months of 2009, an indication that the bear is is closer to the end. The following discussion uses Dow as the base reference.



The European bourses in their respective down trend followed Dow very closely with almost identical pattern. All of them having their lows in early march 2009 followed by a rebound that lasted until yesterday. If the current rebound is sub-wave iv of wave 5, the next down trend offers good entry point for stock purchases.


Except Singapore STI that has a similar pattern as that of Dow and has its low in early March 2009, the rest of the Asian bourses have their respective lows in November 2008 and since then have not broken that lows. Nikkei and Hang Seng are forming possibly double bottoms reversal pattern. KLSE is posibly forming a triple bottoms whereas Shanghai has been moving steadily in a steeper up trend channel. Bourses with their lows in November 2008 are currently in the early stage of Major B Wave. So far they have completed wave 1 and are in the process of completing the last sub-wave of wave 2 or wave c of 2. Similarly the next pull back provides good entry point.

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