If Dow continues to consolidate sideway for another week or two as shown above, it is forming a sideway major wave (IV). After completing the (IV), it will move on to form the uptrend major wave (V).
If Dow continues with its current downtrend next week, Dow is currently in the process of completing its major wave (IV) as shown above. If this is the case, major wave (V) can run until Chinese New Year.
If Dow can run up from here starting next Monday with volume close to yesterday's 8.3 billion, then last Thursday closing of 10308 could be the end of wave 10 and Friday's 20 points up could be the beginning of wave 11 as shown above.
And of course there is possibility of Robert Prechter's major wave C.
Next year is the 'Year of the Tiger' according to the Chinese Zodiac. Statistically for KLSE, year of the Tiger has always been a very very bad year for stocks. The last 'Year of the Tiger', 1998, Composite Index went to as low as 262 (Industrial Index at 545) on 1st September 1998 from 1997 February's height of 1271 (79% Drop) as shown below.
Another 12 years earlier, in 1986, also a 'Tiger Year', Industrial Index hit a bear market's low of 310 by April 1986. This bear market started in 1981 after the Industrial Index has reached a height of 830 (62% Drop). Another 12 years before 1986, another 'Tiger Year', 1974, Industrial Index hit a low of about 145 by December 1974 after its 1973's peak of 635(77% Drop). Next year, if ever there is a similar 70% drop from January 2008 peak of 1516(Composite index), the KLCI can go to as low as 454. Be careful of the Tiger.
Biggest Joke of the Day
MACC will help ministry to evaluate open tenders
(Star December 19)
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