Saturday, June 6, 2009

Is wave 5 of the major wave (I) about to end ?


At the close of last Friday's trading, most of the Asian Bourses and Dow were still having their respective index being kept within a normal wave 5 formation as shown above. The length of wave 5 has not exceeded that of wave 3 yet. If the ultimate wave form shall remain as only 5 waves with a long wave 1 and short wave 3 and 5, and if there is no extension of the 5 waves to 9 waves, next week may witness the end of the current uptrend since March 2009.

In my June 2 posting, by assuming the length of wave 5 equals to that of wave 3, I have projected some figures as the likely terminal points for some of the indices, and as can be seen from the charts below, a normal wave 5 can be completed by next week to mark the end of the major wave (I) for Dow, to be followed by a major wave (II) consolidation unless Dow and the rest refuse to stop at my projected figures and proceed to develop a magnitude larger than wave 3 to acquire a different wave form as mentioned in my June 4 posting "the right count". Under that scenario, the current uptrend will likely to continue for another 2 months or more.

From Friday's closing of 8763, Dow needs another 237 points to reach 9000.

Nikkei's Friday closing is 9768, with another 232 points it will reach 10,000.

Hang Seng will have to put on another 1,321 to its Friday 18,679 to reach 20,000 next week.

Singapore STI closed last Friday at 2396, it has another 104 points to go to reach its revised 2500 level.
I have projected 1077 for KLCI. Last friday it closed at 1075 with 5 sub-wave i-ii-iii-iv-v as shown above. Wave 5's length is the same as wave 3's lenth at this moment, it is interesting to see how it will behave next week. Its ultimate wave form as usual depends on Dow's behaviour. If Dow cannot punch through 9000, most likely Dow has completed its major wave (I) and the long awaited Wave (II) consolidation is likely to begin.

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