Hong Kong Eating Tour.

Courtesy of tiffanywan.com

My wife always wanted to go to Hong kong to eat all those foods that she saw on TVB Cantonese shows such as 'polo pau' and 'san sui taufu fa' and to see Wanchai, Tsim Sha Tsui and other places for herself. I have no choice but to accompany her. I won't be writing until early August.

Dow - Enjoy the wave iii before the next bear

The main question now is how high wave iii will go and for how long. There are three possible levels as shown above. A failure wave iii will stop near or below its previous high of about 11,200. Under such circumstances, the bear will appear before September; It may reach its upper trend line at around 12,500 by October; and lastly, it may move toward its October at around 14,000 to for a double tops.

I prefer to monitor along the most pessimistic possibility that it will end around 11,200 until it is proven wrong. As shown above that point of 11,200 can either point B for the case of a major wave 6 OR wave 2 for the case of a mega wave (IV). At the same time it is good to remember the following two charts, in order not to forget that the current rebound is only a short-term rebound.

For mega wave IV, Dow is at the half-way of wave 'a' of mega wave iv as shown above
For major wave 6, Dow is in the process of completing its wave iii of major wave B as shown below before the devastating major wave C started that can bring Dow to 6500 plus-minus

Baltic dry Index (BDI) - Starting of sub-wave 3 ?

Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an index that tracks worldwide international shipping prices of various commodities. The index has been used by some as a barometer for the volume of global trade in commodities.

From a high of 11700 in May 2008 it plunged to a low of 663 by December 2008 at the peak of US 2008 financial crisis. Since then, with the recovery of WTI crude oil spot price from its December 2008 low of $US 30.28 a barrel and recovery of commodity prices in general, BDI has
moved higher inline with the Dow. By November 2009 it has completed its wave 1 at 4661. Since then it has completed its a-b-c wave 2. On 15 July it reached a low of 1700 that can be the end of wave 2. It is likely that its wave 3 has started. Can this be the indication that the commodity prices are going to move higher? Economic activities are picking up? As for Dow I am still maintaining that it is in its wave 3 that can last until October 2010.

Batu Kawan

Based on long-term chart, Batu Kawan is about to have its last run to complete its wave 5 of major (V). The target should be around Rm 14.00 if wave 5 is assumed to have the magnitude of wave 1. It closed today session at Rm 11.02, slightly above its upper resistance line.


Batu Kawan has reported earning of 51.28 sens for its first half yearly result ending 31st March 2010. Its net assets per share is Rm 7.07. One of its main assets is its holding of 47% of Kuala Lumpur Kepong.

Mega wave 6

In my previous post I wrote about the completion of Mega Wave (III) at major wave5 and Dow has started its Mega Wave (IV) since the October 2007 peak.

It is also possible that Mega Wave (III) has nine waves instead of five waves, under this scenario as shown below, Dow is forming a major wave 6 instead of the Mega wave (IV). From 1937 to 1942 it was a simple abc wave 2, from 1965 to 1974, a complex abcde wave 4. Is is possible that the current wave 6 will take the form of a simple abc again.


Under this major wave 6 scenario, the drop from 9th October 2007 peak of 14,164 to 9th March 2009 low of 6,547 is the major wave A of the major wave 6 as shown below. Since then, Dow has completed wave (1) and (2) of the major wave B, Dow is currently in the up trend wave (3) of B. The chart below is showing a Zig-zag ABC formation for the major wave 6.


Even though there are altogether four types of A-B-C corrective waves but the fact the the major wave A has five waves, this major wave 6 has to be zig-zag formation. Wave B may reach say 11,500. If major wave C has the same magnitude as major wave A, it will go down to about 5500. However a failure C can stop near A, 6547 or event higher than A.

Zig-zag is the only A-B-C with 5-5-3 formation where A has 5 waves, B has 3 waves and C has 5 waves.

The second type is a Flat A-B-C formation as shown below. This is a 3-3-5 formation where A has only 3 waves.



Next two types are classified as Irregular A-B-C. The chart below is showing an Expanding A-B-C. This is also a 3-3-5 formation where A has only 3 waves.



The last type is the Contracting A-B-C, another 3-3-5 formation.



Since major wave A has 5 waves, the 'flat' and the two 'irregular' A-B-C can be ruled out. So if Dow is forming wave 6, it has to be a Zig-zag A-B-C wave 6.

Bursa Malaysia

The last low of the Industrial Index near 2500 can either be the end of major wave (III) or it is forming only wave A of (II). However, if Dow has started its third wave, chances is high that Industrial Index is at its major wave (III) too. There is no danger as long as it can hold above 2550.



TimeCom put on 4.5 sen (8%) today to close at 59 sen. It is currently on its sub-wave iii of wave 3 of major wave (III). It still has a long way to go.



UEM Land has the same pattern as TimeCom, currently on sub-wave iii og wave 3 of major wave (III). At the close today, it managed to break out of its Rm 1.60 resistance level to close at Rm 1.62. The minimum level for sub-wave iii is Rm 1.80.



Gamuda has moved very close to its upper resistance line of around Rm 3.40. Watch out for a breakout with high volume. A break out will confirm its sub-wave iii of wave 1 of major wave (III)



IJM appears to be one wave ahead of Gamuda. It broke its upper resistance last Friday and is currently resting on top of its resistance level. It closed at Rm 5.07 today. It may rest here for another day or two to form its sub-wave i & ii. If this reading is correct, its sub-wave iii of wave 3 of major wave (III) should start within this week and it should reach at least Rm. 5.80.

IJM Warrant C at Rm 1.16 looked very attractive. With its conversion price at Rm 4.00 and expiry date on October 2014, the premium of 9 sen (1.7%) is ridiculously low. If IJM can go to Rm 5.80, the warrant should reach Rm 1.80 at zero premium and that is a gain of 55%.

Fish Head Noodles

For good fish head noodles, I recommend this stall at Lorong Tiong Nam 5.

Click on the Google map to enlarge it. From Jalan Raja Laut turn left into Lorong Tiong Nam 5 and look out for the following zinc roof stall on your left at Jalan Tiong Nam/Lorong Tiong Nam 5 junction.


Don't go to this stall during lunch time, to get a table can be a problem and you have to wait for quite a while to get your food.

The clay-pot fish head noodle is simply delicious, to me it is the best in Kuala Lumpur City area. Besides the usual fried fish head, there are fu chuk, tau fu, yam and fish balls. The thick rice noodles and the lala soup with evaporated milk and chinese rice wine, wow, you must taste it yourself.

The Bak Kut Teh is OK but not as good as those in Klang.

The mee noodles is good, a typical grandmother home cooked dish. The mee is very good, very different from those commercial mee that you used to have.

Notes on Possible Mega wave (IV) Patterns

Looking at the long-term semi-log chart, I am thinking of only two possible patterns for Dow. The first possibility is a major wave 6 formation as shown below. I will talk about this major wave 6 some other day.

The second possibility is a Mega Wave (IV) as shown below, where I have shown a simple a-b-c pattern for (IV).

In one of my early post I have shown an a-b-c-d-e pattern for Mega Wave (IV) as shown below.



But whether it is going to be a-b-c or a-b-c-d-e formation, Dow is currently at wave (iii) of wave (2) of the major wave 'a' as shown below. The current (iii) hopefully can last until October.


My projection for a is about 5,500. In actual fact, theoretically there are Six possible Corrective Patterns for Mega Wave (IV) as shown below. Based on the current form of the corrective wave, I would like to rule out zig-zag, too bearish, it will lead Dow to 1,000



In this Mega Wave (IV) that I am talking about, Dow is only half-way through major wave a. If a really goes to 5,500, that can be a good buy at this level if one has cash. The subsequent major wave b can be very juicy. For example, for the 'Flat' pattern formation, major wave b can move from 5,500 to 14,000 and for the 'Irregular' pattern, as shown above, major wave b can move very much higher than 14,000. Reaching 16,000 may not be a surprise as it is an 'irregular' pattern.

Per Capita GDP Ranking

Luxembourg with a population of slightly over half a million (Malaysia 28 million) and a land size of 2,586 sq km (Malaysia 329,845 sq km) ranks No. 1 with per capita GDP of US$105,319.00. Its GDP by sector : agriculture 0.4%, industry 13.6% and Services 86%. Banking and financial services are main contributors to its GDP. There are 152 banks in this small country with over 27,000 employees.

Luxembourg city

Asian country with the highest ranking is Japan on No. 14. Three places behind Japan is Singapore, a country that depended on entrepot as its sole economy in the 1960's. It has overtaken its old master, UK. Simply fantastic.



South Korea moved from No. 79 in 1970, 20 places behind Malaysia 1970's ranking of 59, to No. 27 by 2009.

Where is Malaysia???



Malaysia managed to JUMP 4 places from 59 in 1970 to 54 in 2009 thanks to the oil and gas and oilpalm. You can try to guess Malaysia's ranking without these commodities. We are only 2 places behind Gabon that managed to stay in front of us most likely is because their elephants are bigger and stronger than ours, I started to think like YB and talk like YB but I am not YB.

Gabon

Malaysia's 55th ranking is based on World Bank's compilation. In IMF's list, Malaysia ranked No. 67 close to Kazakhstan, Mauritius and Oh My God, Botswana!!! that ranked 110 in 1970. Go by the past trend, pretty soon we could drop to 110, where Botswana was in 1970, as others are moving up along a path that is not linear but exponential.

Mauritius that has only beaches and sugar cane and was ranked 99 in 1970 is only one place behind Malaysia in 2009's ranking.

Click on 1970 Per Capital GDP to get 1970 ranking. Courtesy of nationmaster.com.


Let's Sing Together Now

Where have all the money gone?
Long time passing
Where have all the money gone?
Long time ago
Where have all the money gone?
XXXX have picked them every cent
When will they ever learn?
When will they ever learn?

Last up wave of the rebound since 2009 March

From a mega perspective, following what I have discussed in my previous posts, with the latest chart formation, chances are high that the rebound since March 2009's low is a bear market rebound. A typical rebound wave whether it is a wave 2 or a wave B, usually it consists of three waves 1-2-3. From the low, so far wave 1 and 2 have been completed. Dow is currently in wave 3 that may last from about 1 months to about 3 months until October, depending on the gradient.



This is a Mega wave (IV) scenario with either a triangle a-b-c-d-e formation that can drag over 10 years or a flat a-b-c that takes 6 to 8 years to finish.



A second scenario is assuming that the Mega Wave (III) has yet to be completed. The bearish A-B-C corrective wave is a major wave 6 in the making, which many analysts have been talking about. The rebound since March 2009's low is a major wave B rebound and Dow is currently on wave 3 of the major wave (B) as shown below. Watch out for the completion of (B).


A-B-C corrective wave can take many forms. The Zigzag A-B-C as shown below is the most damaging version.

Less damaging versions are Flat ABC and Contracting ABC. Flat formation will have B rises to the level of wave 5 with C terminates near wave A level. A contracting ABC will have B stops at a level lower than wave 5 and wave C staying above wave A.

Dow - Is this the last surge ?

Refer to the long-term chart above, the market run since March 2009 is quite confirm at this stage that it is a bear market rebound wave. If it is a mega wave (IV), a-b-c or a-b-c-d-e correction, Dow has been slowly moving higher to complete the wave 3 of (2) as shown below, before it plunges to (3) to form wave "a" of Mega (IV) that can be lower than March 2009's low of 6547.



On a more optimistic scenario that the Mega wave (III) has not been completed yet, as shown below, Dow is at the wave B of the major wave 6. Wave B is also consist of 3 waves.


The current run up is to complete wave 3 of B as shown below. After that Dow can go for a free fall to complete the wave C. If major wave 6 take the form of a contracting A-B-C, C may stop around 8,000. If it is going to be a zig-zag A-B-C, then C will likely to go below 2009 March low of 6,547 to complete the major wave 6. The next major wave 7 can have an upper limit of 14,000.

Spain The Champion

The Champion

Iniesta 116th minute's Goal sealed the victory

The Celebration

Dutch blamed Paul the Octopus

Perfect record in predicting the results, 8 out of 8 correctly.