Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Dow - Is this the last surge ?

Refer to the long-term chart above, the market run since March 2009 is quite confirm at this stage that it is a bear market rebound wave. If it is a mega wave (IV), a-b-c or a-b-c-d-e correction, Dow has been slowly moving higher to complete the wave 3 of (2) as shown below, before it plunges to (3) to form wave "a" of Mega (IV) that can be lower than March 2009's low of 6547.



On a more optimistic scenario that the Mega wave (III) has not been completed yet, as shown below, Dow is at the wave B of the major wave 6. Wave B is also consist of 3 waves.


The current run up is to complete wave 3 of B as shown below. After that Dow can go for a free fall to complete the wave C. If major wave 6 take the form of a contracting A-B-C, C may stop around 8,000. If it is going to be a zig-zag A-B-C, then C will likely to go below 2009 March low of 6,547 to complete the major wave 6. The next major wave 7 can have an upper limit of 14,000.


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