Sunday, July 19, 2020

Dow (26,671) - Is mega wave (3) the only option?

Dow went to as high as 26,870 on Wednesday to knock out the wave B option and I am left with the mega wave (3) option.

Is Dow going to move from here with only one direction - all the way up? Can we forget about what Nouriel Roubini has mentioned in April - "The coming Greater Depression of the 2020s" ?


Click 'Depression of the 2020s' for the article by Nouriel Roubini, the 'Dr. Doom' that predicted accurately in 2006 the housing bubble crash of 2007-2008.

After going through the chart carefully, there is actually one possible bearish option that can support Roubini's bearish view.


From the February's historical high of 29,568, Dow dropped 38.4% with 9 waves along the way, that can be taken as major wave 1 of the super wave VIII.

The subsequent rebound to 27,574 by June can be taken as major wave 2. Dow then moved lower after that to form its wave (i) and since then has been forming its wave (ii) with a possible 100% retracement to 27,574 level.

This wave count will be ruled out once Dow moved higher than 27,574. That is another 903 points or another 3.4% away to rule out this bearish option.

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