Dow, FBMKLCI and Covid-19

Dow (21,636)

Dow dropped 915 points or about 4% on Friday. It has completed its wave (i) of B. Further pullback is expected until wave (ii) of B is completed.

FBMKLCI (1,343)

Very likely KLCI has completed its sub-wave viii rebound. The next drop will be the sub-wave ix of the wave (iii) of C. 

Covid-19

I started to monitor the situation of Covid-19 on 4 February for some major countries. Until 28 March I have collected about 2 months of data on the cumulative cases for each individual country. To monitor the rate of change of the number of cases each day, I computed the 10-day average of the daily cumulative cases and the rate of change in percentage of the 10-day average.

For China, I should have started the monitoring in January to have a more complete picture. On 4 February the cumulative number of cases has already reached 24,292. By end of February the cumulative figure and the 10-day average figure has merged indicating the Covid-19 was under controlled. By 28 March the rate of change has dropped to 0.11%. Life can be back to normal very soon.

For South Korea, the period covered illustrated a complete episode of Covid-19. By 28 March the 10-day average line and the cumulative line begin to merge and the rate of change has dropped to 1.31%. By end of April, with their current tight control, the rate should be able to drop to 0.1% and their commercial and social activities should return to normal.

For Italy, the gap between the 10-day average line and the cumulative line is still wide with the rate of change at 9.3%. With better control by the Italian government hopefully by end of April the two lines can begin to merge with the rate of change dropping to 1.3% like that of South Korea at this moment.

For France, the rate of change is 14.9% on 28 March, lagging behind Italy's 9.3%. More effort is needed by the French government.

For the US, the rate of change is at 25.7%, very bad, it will take many months for the figure to drop below 1%.

For Malaysia, the situation is much better than the US with the rate of change at 10.3%. WE may need another 2 months of tight control to bring the rate to 1%.

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