I was away in Japan since end of last month expecting the boring market to drift side way, nothing to worry. But when my plane had a smooth landing at KLIA yesterday, the Dow was having a hard landing in the US.
What's happening? Analyst said it was due to the rising interest rate and was also triggered by the sell-off of in Tech Stocks. Microsoft fell 5.4%, Apple dropped 4.6%, Amazon fell 6.2%, Alibaba dropped 5.9% and the Nasdaq dropped 4.08%. In fact when I checked the Nasdaq's chart, I noticed that Nasdaq has already given way on the previous Thursday and Friday while I was enjoying the beautiful scenery in Japan.
Dow (25,598)
The tricky Dow broke its previous record high of 26,616 before end of September and continued to set new record highs, giving investor a bullish signal before making a U-turn to form an 'expanding triangle A-B-C'.
I have no choice but to switch back to my previous bearish major wave 8 corrective wave of 14% to 15% correction for its wave C and it is likely to end at around 23,000 level for a 14% pullback. Don't forget that it can also stop short or overshoot.
Asian Market
If Dow is bad, the whole world market will be bad. Asian dropped badly today. At the close Taiwan market dropped 6.31%, the worst, followed by China 5.22%, Korea 4.44%, Japan 3.89% and New Zealand 3.64%. Bursa Malaysia dropped the least at 1.54%.
FBMKLCI (1,708)
Similarly I expect KLCI to move in tandem with the Dow to go for a 13% correction from the top of its wave B to around 1,532 level to complete the wave C of its mega wave (6). From its today closing level of 1,708, KLCI has another 176 points (10.3%) to go to complete its wave C.
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1 comment:
Thanks for your generous sharing. Having observed your wavecounts and the number of times you have had to change due to market actions, do you not think that Elliot wave counting is no better than a coin flip ? In which case, why do you still continue with wave counting ? Thanks in advance.
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