In my previous reading, after closing at a high of 54.38 in October 2017, I was expecting the price to come down in November to form the sub-wave iii of its wave (v) of C.
Is it possible that the wave (iv) of C has yet to be completed?
Theoretically as long as the wave (iv) does go higher than the low of wave (i), the current run-up can still be wave (iv). But then the magnitude of wave (iv) is so much bigger than that of wave (ii). In fact it is as big as the wave B. This is an unlikely scenario.
The next possibility is a A-B-C-D-E complex wave.
If it is indeed going for a complex A-B-C-D-E, the wave (iii) of D is likely to reach US$85.00 before the oil prices start to drop again with a possible low of below US$30.00.
The next decline could be due to the trend of banning of petrol and diesel vehicles over times.
From Wikipedia, I found the following table.
By 2024 there will be no more diesel vehicles in Rome.
By 2025, no more diesel vehicles in France (Paris), Norway, Spain (Madrid), Greece (Athens) and Mexico (Mexico City).
This is going to be the trend in future. Petrol kiosks will slowly disappear from all major cities.
May be this is the reason why Royal Dutch Shell has started its assets selling when they can still fetch a high price.
(In Bursa Malaysia, Shell has become Hengyuan and Esso has become Petron).
In September 2017 when China announced plans to eventually ban the production and sale of vehicles powered solely by fossil fuels, the share price of Geely, that bought 49.99% of Proton, went up by 40% during period before and after the announcement.
Another company BAIC is planning to list its electric vehicle business unit on Shanghai Stock Exchange at a valuation of RMB28.8 billion (US$4.5 billion).
It is possible that after the current up trend. crude oil price is going to move lower and lower in the coming years.
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