CLSA Feng Shui Index 2016

CLSA (Credit Lyonnais Securities Asia) is Asia's leading equity brokers and investment groups focused on institutional broking, investment banking and asset management to corporate and institutional clients around the world.

Every year, before the Chinese New Year, CLSA will publish a Feng Shui Index that forecast the performance of Hang Seng during the new lunar year.

For the coming 2016 'Monkey' year, the forecast is as shown below.

The market is expected to reach its peak in March and its bottom in June, and moves side way for the rest of the year. The market is expected to end the Monkey year at almost the same level at its starting point.

Click 'CLSA Feng Shui Index 2016' for the article.

It may be interesting to look at the accuracy of their forecast for the last four years.


2012

For 2012 Dragon year, at a glance, the general trend looked the same. Highly accurate. However if I compared the actual Hang Seng Index with the Feng Shui Index on a monthly basis, then only 6 out of 12 months were correct. The bottom for the year is out by two months. Instead of August, Hang Seng has its bottom in June.

2013

Very bad forecast. The general trend for the first 8 months is completely opposite each other. On monthly comparison, Only 4 out of 12 months were correct. The market bottom is out by three months. If one were to wait for CLSA's projected bottom in September, from June's 19,800 level to September 23,500 level, the market has already moved up by 18.7% and is 2% away from its 2013's peak of 24,000.

2014

Very good forecast. The general trend is highly accurate. Market peak was out by about a month. For monthly comparison, 8 out of 12 months were correct.

2015

For 2015, the forecast was disastrous. Actual market performance was much worst then the forecast. Market peak was out by 3 months. On monthly comparison, only 5 out of 12 months were correct. Hang Seng ended the year in the negative territory instead of in the positive territory.

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