The following table is a summary of Dow's annual performance in percentage from 1946 to 2014. For example, in 1946 (Dog year), it lost 8.1%. In 1947 (Pig Year) it gained 2.2% and in 1948 (Rat year) it lost 2.1% and so on.
Since 1946, Dow gave the best average return of 17.6% during 'Sheep Year'. Next best is the 14.8% return during 'Ox Year' followed by 13.8% during 'Pig and Rabbit Year'.
Only two animals in the Chinese Zodiac gave negative average return, the Rooster with negative 4% and the Rat with negative 1.7%.
If Dow can gain 17.6% in 2015, it should reach 20,800 by 3rd February 2016, the last day of the current 'Sheep Year'. Dow gained 14.9% during the 'Horse Year' that has just ended 3 weeks ago.
However if we were to look at Dow's performance earlier than 1946, we would notice that the '1929 Great Depression' started during the 'Snake Year' and Dow recorded its biggest annual lost of 52.7% during the 1931 'Sheep Year'.
As I have mentioned before, stock market behaviour can be highly unpredictable at times. The market can plunge at the most unlikely hour when you are most comfortable and bullish. I might have presented the following projection for FMBKLCI in my previous posting but I am always on the lookout for danger signs and are ever ready to run for my life at any point along the two years journey to January 2017.
Be prepared for a failure 5. It may not happen but it can happen. Don't forget Murphy's Law. Just keep our fingers crossed and pray that wave 5 will be well behaved and can last until 2017.
Dow (18,209)
Dow closed with another new record high on Tuesday. If Dow continues to move higher from this level, then it is forming the sub-wave iii of its wave (xiii).
But if Dow starts to move lower from this level, it is forming a higher degree a-b-c-d-e corrective wave (xiv).
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