Saturday, January 24, 2015

Weekend review

Crude Oil WTI (US$ 45.59 a barrel) 

If the magnitude of wave 3 is 1.618 times of the magnitude of wave 1, it is likely that wave 3's low is around US$ 43. If wave 4 is going to take more than two years with prices moving side way between US$ 43 and US$ 75 a barrel, it should benefit the world economy.


Dow (17,672)

It is more likely that Dow is forming an uptrend contracting a-b-c-d-e wave (xiv) that could last until mid February.

With ECB printing EUR 60 billion a month until September 2016 and if crude oil prices can move side way for the next 2 years, Dow may be able to continue its uptrend until early 2017.


FBMKLCI (1,803)

KLCI managed to close above 1,800 level on Friday. I hope this is the sub-wave iii of wave (i) of its major wave 5.


If this major wave 5 can last for 25 months, same duration as that of major wave 1, the uptrend might last until January 2017.


KSL Holdings Bhd (Rm 2.08)

If the asset bubble won't burst for the next 2 years, property price may be able to hold or move higher in the next 2 years, this should be good for property stock like KSL.

If KSL can break its upper trend-line next week, then its last low at Rm 1.70 could be its wave (iv).


Then its current run-up is likely to be the wave (v) of its major wave 3.


However, if it is unable to break its upper trend-line and moves lower instead of higher, then it is more likely to form a higher degree a-b-c-d-e major wave 4.


This is less bullish but the major wave 5 of mega wave (3) may see KSL reaching Rm 3.00


Karambunai Corp Bhd (Rm 0.07)


KBunai closed at 7 sen on Friday. It is about to complete the wave v of C of its mega wave (2) that has dragged for 7 years. Its OBV indicates strong accumulation since 2006.


Based on its minor wave count, Friday's 7 sens could be its mini wave 4. It might go to its 2006's low of 5.5 sens again to complete the mini wave 5 and also to complete its major 'double-bottom' reversal pattern.


The owner, Dr. Chen Lip Keong has a direct interest in 4.29 billion share (74.27%) and an indirect interest in 339 million share (5.87%) in KBunai, totaled 80.14%.

In October 2013, Dr. Chen received 2.9 billion shares valued at 11 sens to settle his personal loan of Rm 322 million to KBunai. At 7 sens he has already lost Rm 116 million on paper. Even if I buy at 7 sens I am paying 4 sens (36%) less than Dr. Chen.

This could be another potential goldmine besides PWorth if KLCI can move to 2,400 by January 2017.

I am praying very hard to whoever up there that the mini wave 5 will come and I can get KBunai at 5.5 sens, Amen.


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