Saturday, May 11, 2013

Dow - Milestones for the short-term run


How short-term is the 'short-term run' for Dow before the bubble burst?

Assuming the current bull run from the 2009's bottom of 6547 is the mega wave 1 of the super wave VII.


At this moment it appears to me that the mega wave 1 is going to have 9 major waves, (i.e. major wave (1) to major wave (9)), for one simple reason, major wave (3) cannot be shorter than major wave (1) & (5) if mega wave 1 has only 5 major waves.



So, if mega wave 1 has 9 major waves, the 'short-term run' will end at major wave (9). Dow currently is forming its wave (vii) of its major wave (5).

My immediate interest is - How high wave (vii) can go before the wave (viii)'s 8% pullback takes place?


By now it is obvious that wave (vii) has 9 sub-waves.
Sub-wave i gained 6.4%. Sub-wave iii & v gained 8.2% and 7.8% respectively.
The average of 6.4%, 8.2% and 7.8% is 7.46%.

By assuming sub-wave vii & ix can gain an average of 7.46% (the best I can do), wave (vii) is projected to reach 16,450 level. Wave (viii) correction will then bring Dow back to 15,000 level.

After that Dow still has one more surge, the wave (ix), to complete the major wave (5).
Dow still has major wave (6), (7), (8) and (9) to go before the completion of mega wave 1.

The 'short-term run' is not really that 'short', thanks to the money printing by all the central banks.

Don't forget the "long-term catastrophic" mentioned by Roubini. 

The above projection will be modified accordingly as Dow unfold itself.


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