Dow - another update

Scenario 1 - Grand Super Wave (III) ended in October 2007 when Dow reached its peak of 14164. Dow is in its Grand Super Wave (IV), going through a 15 to 20 years of side way A-B-C-D-E consolidation with Dow fluctuating between 14,000 and 6,000 or below.  

Scenario 2 - Grand Super Wave (III) has 9 waves, Dow has completed its Super wave VI in March 2009 when Dow dropped to its low of 6547. Dow is forming its mega wave 1 of its Super wave VII.

I am currently monitoring Dow with respect to scenario 2 and I believe Dow is at the tail end of its mega wave 1.

Dow may take another 5 months to complete wave (vii), (viii) and (ix) of its major wave (5) of mega wave 1 before starting its mega wave 2 plunge. However if mega wave 1 has 9 waves, Dow will have to complete its major wave (6), (7), (8) and (9) before the mega wave 2 can take place, and that will push the mega wave 2 to year 2015.

Mega wave 2 can go to as low as 6547 for a 100% retracement. Is this what Roubini's thinking of 'short-term bullish, long-term catastrophic' ?.

Looking at the 6-month chart below, Dow is at its sub-wave v of its wave (vii).
Wave (vii) can have 9 waves.

 

Or it can have only 5 waves, then wave (vii) will be completed within a week or two. Wave (viii) will have a 8% to 10%  correction. 

Is this the 'intermediate top' mentioned by Marc Faber recently ?

The current economy, whether it is in Europe, US or Japan, it is being supported by money printing out of thin air to roll over existing debts with a bigger debts. As the debts getting bigger and bigger, the main question now is "how long this debt bubble can last?".

And when it burst, we will be lucky if Dow can stop at 6547.

If unlucky, Dow is in Grand Super Wave (VI) mentioned under scenario 1, Dow may have another 50% to 60% drop from 6547 to 3000 and below.

Click ' The next wave of the economic collapse ' for a bearish article. 

Don't forget to fish for your pot of gold when the time comes.

.