My reading for the Australian All Ordinary Index is rather bearish. After the March 2009's low, it has a strong wave 1 followed by a very weak wave 3 that was unable to break the wave 1's peak to form a potential 'double tops'. The 5,000 level forms a very strong resistance. The index has touched the 5,000 level 4 times and turned downwards.
The index has been moving side way in the last 19 months despite of the strong commodity prices and in the last 5 months it has been moving in a downtrend channel. Once it breaks the 4,250 level, its minimum target is 3,500 and it is likely to reach its March 2009's low of 3,111, that may not be the end of wave C if the commodity prices collapse.
If the Singapore STI failed to break the 3,313 level, the current run-up is likely to be the wave 2 of the major wave C. The next wave 3 plunge may take the form of the May - October 2008 pattern that dropped 1,600 points.
Once the Bursa Malaysia Industrial goes below 2,800 and continues to break the 2,770 level, it's game over.
It has already started 7 months ago
.
No comments:
Post a Comment