Wednesday, March 30, 2011

Dow - No sign of reversal

A chart technician basically believed that chart pattern is the end products of market participant's emotional or calculated reactions to all the news, events, policies and anything under the sun that has an effect on market movement.

If the above is true, the latest chart of Dow Jones Industrial Index has already factored into the chart all the recent happenings in Japan, Middle East, North Africa and Europe. The high food and commodity prices, unemployment, etc. etc. until the latest state of development of the events.


Dow continues to defy all odds to move higher in the last 9 trading sessions. It appears that the recent low at around 11,600 is just another corrective wave.

Looking at the long-term chart below, Dow so far has not shown any sign that its uptrend movement has ended if we forget about the wave count and there is no reversal pattern so far to indicate that it has started its next down trend, the mega wave C that I have mentioned previously.


The ending point of wave 5 could be a possible terminal location for mega wave B, but since Dow was unable to break the lower support line to provide the necessary confirmation for the mega wave C required, the hypothesis has ended.


So Dow's uptrend remains intact and it proceeds to form its wave 7.

But Nasdaq is painting a different picture, its current up-trend is likely to be wave 5 instead of wave 7. It was caused by the extra corrective sub-wave iv of wave 3. Since the current uptrend for Nasdaq is wave 5, it provides a possible terminal point for mega wave B.


Under the current circumstances, it is hard to pin point the possible ending point for mega wave B but it is rather clear that Dow is on its final journey to complete the B, definitely I won't talk about buying stocks and hold for long term during this final journey of Dow. Speculative buy may be possible but not advisable and if really wanted to try, one must be prepared to cut loss if found to be on the wrong footing.


The chart pattern for Hang Seng remains the same despite a 391 points gain today. It continues to stay within the down trend channel.





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